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Dr. Scott Atlas is making the case that a total lockdown as we are now experiencing is actually counterproductive to contain & manage Covid19.
To quote his article in The Hill:
Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.
The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.
In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 10 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.
Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.
Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
We can learn about hospital utilization from data from New York City, the hotbed of COVID-19 with more than 34,600 hospitalizations to date. For those under 18 years of age, hospitalization from the virus is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 people; for those 18 to 44 years old, hospitalization is 0.1 percent. Even for people ages 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were hospitalized. Of 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded “age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.” Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness. Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms at all. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people do not need significant medical care if they catch this infection.
Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — antibodies — so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.” Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases — to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy. That has been falsely portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat. Extending whole-population isolation would directly prevent that widespread immunity from developing.
Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.
Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability.
Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
New Mexico Native American tribes enforce strict isolation, testing…
Minneapolis Fed president: ‘The worst is yet to come on the job front’
The overwhelming evidence all over the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group — older people and others with underlying conditions — is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19. Knowing that, it is a commonsense, achievable goal to target isolation policy to that group, including strictly monitoring those who interact with them. Nursing home residents, the highest risk, should be the most straightforward to systematically protect from infected people, given that they already live in confined places with highly restricted entry.The appropriate policy, based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand, is to institute a more focused strategy like some outlined in the first place: Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions. This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation. Let’s stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter.
Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.
Haimy -“Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.”
Some of the rant makes sense, I’m going to talk about that line.
We as Frum Jews value every single life. Right now they don’t know the full extent of the Virus called Covid19.
There seems to be a syndrome that has inflammatory disease on areas of the organs of the body. This mainly affects kids. It makes good sense to have e/o practice social distancing.Health- “We as Frum Jews value every single life. Right now they don’t know the full extent of the Virus called Covid19” so therefore I think everyone should stop driving cars that will definitely save lives. So even when we do value every life we have to have a balance I’m not here to make that call but he has a very valid point
Dear Haimy,
What Dr. Atlas is advocating will not help millions of people. Yes, we can take a walk around the block. If we hug every person you meet, we will be back where we were a month ago.Daslakewood -“so therefore I think everyone should stop driving cars that will definitely save lives.”
You definitely don’t represent Lakewood with your Am Haratzos. You’d be right except for the Heter of Hakol Dushin Bo. That wouldn’t apply with Covid19!
Haimy = Joe – “Many people will Ch”V suffer nervous breakdowns if we keep them quarantined much longer”
Joe – your problems are a lot more than something like a nervous breakdown!
One needs to remember that independent studies of how many people have antibodies, as opposed to how many people tested positive for Covid19, suggest that in over 80% of cases, the person has has the disease does not get sick enough to notice (a cold, or nothing at all). This suggests that the lockdowns (and cancellation of davening and learning Torah) were based on “junk science”. Covid19 is worse than the annual flu, but not radically so. It bares no resemblance to smallpox or black death or even the 1918 influenza. Those most at risk should take special precautions (as with the annual flu), but the destruction of the economy (equivalent to the Great Depression) was uncalled for. The politicians (and the rabbinicial organizations, and the medical profession) goofed and need to take immediate measures to restore their credibility.
Nomesorah,
We wont be right back where we are IF we all have developed an immunity. If we have immunity from the antibodies developed during the diseaseis still being questioned. But if we do, then hugging each other mb at cause a rise on cases but not nearly like a month ago.NOMesorah:
with all due respect, are you a doctor?
Read carefully what the doctor said. Restarting the economy WILL help millions!
The amount of people who have been laid off is going to (Chas v’shalom) cause huge social unrest and many suicides and domestic violence. Already last week we know that someone in Machaneh Yehuda commuted Suicide when he was not allowed to open his store.
Let young people restart their lives!“The politicians (and the rabbinicial organizations, and the medical profession) goofed and need to take immediate measures to restore their credibility. ”
You really can’t say they were wrong. It is all well and good to be a Monday morning quarterback (actually, it really isn’t) but to say people made a mistake by shutting people in to keep them from spreading a disease that seemed to be jumping at passersby and killing huge numbers – that’s not a mistake.
If a person smells a gas leak or smoke and they scream for everyone to clear the house and call 911, and afterwards they find out it was actually the fireplace or a neighbors bbq, do you think they acted wrongly?
Now that we have “so much” information on this illness (which you would have to be a fool to believe) we can sit and criticize all the people who didn’t take it seriously at first (which, if you would be HONEST, is probably everyone. That’s the reality of unprecedented occurrences) and then comment on how they did TOO much (as if stopping the spread is a bad idea amidst a pandemic BEFORE the facts are in) and have the chutzpah to say they need to “restore their credibility”? That’s nuts.
Moving forward, we may have enough breathing space to decide if the harm of staying indoors overrides the harm of opening the doors knowing there are millions of morons out there who will disregard all safety measures. And we STILL don’t understand how this awful children’s illness fits into the picture, so know is definitely time to work with facts and statistics and make educated GUESSES. But to criticize how it was handled while the world was on fire is just haughty and misleading.
Haimy -“What we do know is that if we don’t allow those with almost any risks come out of isolation it will ruin the livelihood, education, mental health, relationships, of many many people.”
And to Yisroel, Akuperma, & others –We as FRUM JEWS Value life more than anything else!
This includes making Money & anything else you posted & anything else you can think of.As of now, 38 children in NYC are infected with a suspected COVID-19 related “pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome” with 9 further potential cases under investigation. So, it’s a bit cavalier to say confining them makes no sense. There is a clear risk. This might start the argument about statistics and how many are really at risk, but if you’re asked to look one of their parents in the eye and tell them that the risk was acceptable, expect some backlash.
Dear Health,
Should we have been having a lockdown every winter for four months during the annual flu season? It would save some lives as well, mostly of older persons and persons with serious medical problems. Tens of thousands of people die every year from flu. Covid19 contrary to sensationalist mass media, does not make most people sick – perhaps only 10% of people who “catch” it get sick enough to need to consult with a doctor (and get tested) – of the serious cases, perhaps only one in twenty die – that means Covid19 is only a bit more dangerous than the regular flu, but is in no way similar to the mass killing epidemics in the past (that are cited as evidence for how halacha looks at epidemics).How… just how are you people writing this dreck? Do you not remember what things were like over Pesach when every day we were hearing about another friend or relative who died or was severely hospitalized because of COVID-19? And not only elderly either! Is that what you want to go back to? There’s no sensationalizing necessary, we all saw with our own two eyes and ears the dangers of not isolating! Sure most young people don’t die from it, but guess what? The more young people that have it, the more likely an older person will catch it! What are caretakers supposed to do? What about all the thousands of elderly who cannot care for themselves?
Akuperma- i am pretty sure your numbers are wrong. Are you getting them from political briefings or medical?
Also, i hate when people make dumb comments like that about the flu. The final number of flu deaths and cases does not in any way present itself the way covid did with the speed, intensity, abikity to be passed unknowingly or lasting damage. You certainky are too smart to pretend a ticker tape readout can disregard actual real life, what’s blinding you?Young people have r’l passed away from COVID in a way they haven’t from the seasonal flu.
Dear Health,
We value life.
How easy you throw that into the conversation. Are you teaching us something we didn’t know? Perhaps. I will dan lchaf zchus. How about people who die at home with heart attacks because they have been frightened by the non stop media attacks? Do we value their lives? How about the liver and kidney transplants that are not being done? At the beginning of the lockdown, a liver transplant patient was told by doctors that he had one month to live. He was not allowed to have this “elective” surgery. Does his life matter? I cannot get a kidney transplant, despite having been offered kidneys by 8-9 people. Elective surgery! But at least for now I can have dialysis.
We were told we must lockdown because 2.2 million people may die! Today the news is that Dr. Birx said she can’t trust the CDC numbers at all. up to 25% of the deaths may not be from the virus!
The most important thing to remember, as akuoerman alluded to, every flu season is ignored. If you look at the way that Gov Cuomo dealt with this emergency, he insisted for five weeks(!) until this week that recovering patients MUST BE taken by nursing homes. At least 4000 people died. He has murder on his hands. And he did not allow Hydro clot hydroxychlorid 4000 people died. He has murder on his hands. And he did not allow Hydroxychloroquine To be administered to people before they came to the hospital. I lost a friend who was 54 years old. He wasn’t allowed to have the medicine until we came to the hospital. The three weeks he was sick but he couldn’t go to the hospital for the add a fever! Three weeks after Purim he finally got the fever. He died on the way to the hospital! Why? Because Donald Trump said try it it can’t hurt. Especially after the revelation on the weekend it is so obvious that the media hates our president and will destroy the economy rather than Allow him to be reelected.Cuomo said himself that 66 percent of the people who died were in lockdown.
How is that to be explained?
As for all of our friends etc who passed away during Pesach, ask the governor why he forbade hydroxychloroquine to be administered IMMEDIATELY as Dr. Zelenko, the MD of Monroe insisted, (699 patients as of a month ago and NOT ONE admission) and only did permit it when someone was in the hospital.
My brother was very sick and couldn’t get the med. I begged him to find a way (I’m 200 miles away). Finally, his wife drove to NJ and picked up a prescription of hydroxychloroquine and zinc (and maybe zpac) and after a tense week, he was much better, BH.akuperma -“Should we have been having a lockdown every winter for four months during the annual flu season? It would save some lives as well, mostly of older persons and persons with serious medical problems.”
I usually like your posts esp. when it comes about politics.
That said – you’re way off about this!
First of all, anybody who gets the flu, (in most cases), it’s their own Fault.
There’s a vaccine.2nd, this can affect e/o, even kids.
From the Guardian:
“The deaths of three children in New York of inflammatory complications possibly linked to Covid-19”
So to protect LIVES – We needed Confinement & We still NEED it!Yisroel -“How about people who die at home with heart attacks because they have been frightened by the non stop media attacks? Do we value their lives? ”
If what you’re saying is true, No hospitals that I know of turned pts. AWAY!
If they were frightened – s/o should have made them go to the hospital, eg. a family member, etc.
The rest of your Rant doesn’t apply to Me.Haimy -“Those that are normally very trusting of doctors & politicians or are very frightened about Covid19 will likely disagree.”
I don’t trust anyone, but myself!
When modern medical science doesn’t have any answers, people & gov. turn to previous ways.
Before vaccines for the Flu, people isolated themselves to get rid of it, eg. the Spanish Flu.Health “The rest of your Rant doesn’t apply to me.”
I’m shocked at your insensitive comment.
“No hospitals I know.”
What do you know? This is clearly reported that hospitals are closing in rural areas and even in metropolitan areas, specialists are losing their parnassah because they are not allowed to schedule “elective” surgery.
Oh! But, of course, my “elective” surgery for a kidney transplant doesn’t concern you, because it’s part of my “Rant.”
Wow!Dear Haimy,
You are polarizing the opinion of a health care policy expert versus a whole bunch of other doctors. There is not much difference between what they are saying. If you do not have any symptoms, you can take a walk. If you still have a job, you could go to work. If you are self employed, you could daven to get customers. Either way, please wash your hands.The doctor is 100% correct. I am not a doctor but i do work with numbers all day and the numbers definitely agree with him. If you do some basic calculations of the mortality rate you will see young ppl should not be kept isolated.
Very simple calculation. As of a couple days ago when I did this, there were 3 deaths from age 0-9, 8 from 10-19, 71 from age 20-29, and 281 from age 30-39. Sounds like a lot.
However, the antibody testing showed that 14.9% of the population of NY State had Covid. If we take the population distribution of those groups and take 14.9% you get this – 0-9 had 345,647 cases; 10-19 had 384,082; 20-29 had 415,876; and 30-39 had 377,459.
So in total, for ppl under 40, there were 363 deaths in 1,523,064 cases. A mortality rate of .0002383
To give perspective on the number, the odds of being struck by lightning are .0003333. in other words you have about 50% higher chance of being struck by lightning as you do from dying of Covid. And this is assuming you got it for sure, if only 33.3% of population gets it then your chances are 1/3 of that.
We don’t make policy decisions that will impact millions of people based on things that are extremely unlikely. What we need to do is focus all our resources on the old and weakened immune system people. And nursing homes. That’s where the real issue is.
People see large numbers and don’t know how to process them. They don’t have perspective. I realize it is terrible that we are having 1-2 thousand deaths a day from this. I don’t mean to minimize it. But, do you know that last year an average of 7,800 ppl died every day in the US. The entire year. We are a very large country of 330 million ppl. Of course each life is precious and we try to do whatever we can to save it. But from a public policy perspective we don’t make 35,000,000 ppl lose their parnassah for these numbers.
This doesn’t even take into account the fact that there are alarming statistics regarding cancer patients not going and hospitals delaying important surgeries. Each year about 600k ppl die in US from cancer. If this causes a 20% jump in cancer deaths that would be 125,000 extra deaths. And 1 in 5 suicides is related to job loss. It’s very likely that the lockdown actually will cause more deaths in addition to the economic harm (which has its own long term effects).Thank you, cent-cent!
Excellent explanation of a difficult concept.Just to clarify – the numbers I quoted above (deaths and cases) for NY State only. There is no reason to assume the mortality rate would be higher any other part of the country.
cent-cent -“The doctor is 100% correct. I am not a doctor but i do work with numbers all day and the numbers definitely agree with him. If you do some basic calculations of the mortality rate you will see young ppl should not be kept isolated.”
Actually I’m very Glad the Gov. didn’t follow statistics this time.
Because they followed Religion. Judaism requires that Human Life takes precedence over Money!
Confining e/o, including Young people, Saved LIVES!Yisroel -“This is clearly reported that hospitals are closing in rural areas and even in metropolitan areas, specialists are losing their parnassah because they are not allowed to schedule “elective” surgery”
I don’t know about Rural areas. And in NY Metro area – I know of NO closures.
Never did I mention about not allowing “elective” surgery. That wasn’t part of my post – so Stop Attributing anything that you can RANT About to ME!Health – according to you we should have a tour month lockdown every year. There are thousands of deaths every year from flu.
As for the vaccine argument – according to your logic it is not a valid point. The flu vaccine is generally about 45% effective. Depending on the year it can be 30-60% effective based on how well they guess the strain.
Additionally, about 25% of flu deaths are from people who were vaccinated. These are CDC numbers. So there are about 10,000 flu deaths every year from people who were vaccinated. According to you we should shut down for four months every year. But we don’t. Because the Torah doesn’t tell us to. That’s not how the Torah looks at public policy.
We are not directly killing people here. It’s not like one specific person will definitely die. In that case we don’t kill him. But here we are just talking about random people who may get sick and die. Much different.cent-cent -“according to you we should have a tour month lockdown every year. There are thousands of deaths every year from flu.”
DON’T PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH; Because you have an Agenda!
“As for the vaccine argument – according to your logic it is not a valid point. The flu vaccine is generally about 45% effective. Depending on the year it can be 30-60% effective based on how well they guess the strain.
Additionally, about 25% of flu deaths are from people who were vaccinated. These are CDC numbers. So there are about 10,000 flu deaths every year from people who were vaccinated.”The CDC is trying to argue why e/o should get a Flu Shot.
And you’re trying to argue that’s there is No Point?!?
BTW, this has nothing to do with COVID19!!!Reb Chaim is 93 years old and obviously someone at risk (Because of his age, I do not know any other health issues)
If Reb Chaim lived in your community, would you feel it was OK for you younger healthier person to go to shul or the Beis Medrash while Reb Chaim is in quarentine?
Health:
Please calm down.
Conversation is about thinking first what someone said and then responding.
Screaming (CAPS and !!!!) is inappropriate.
Please….
Go say tehillim.
I will say one kapital for you now.Edited.
Zahavashad
“If Reb Chaim lived in your community, would you feel it was OK for you younger healthier person to go to shul or the Beis Medrash while Reb Chaim is in quarentine?”
Yes.
I am in that position myself.
If they open up my shul, because I’m on dialysis I probably won’t be able to go.
I don’t even understand your point? Do you really think that Reb Chaim would be jealous of your ability to go to shul to the point of wanting you to be mevatel tefillah btzibbur Krias haTorah, etc. for 85% or more of the oilam so that he would not feel bad?
Each person needs to do what he must and if the Halacha/doctors would indicate that 10-15% of the tzibbur don’t go to shul for now, then they should bl”n follow that. Why would that 10-15% be so selfish to close down the shul for 85-90% to not make them feel bad?
I really don’t get that….Yisroel -“Screaming (CAPS and !!!!) is inappropriate.”
It’s appropriate when s/o is insinuating that I meant something, that I didn’t Mean or Say!!!!
Dear Cent,
Your argument has precedent. Stalin would order his victims to find their own executioner, so that their comrades would still support him. (As he would not directly kill them.) I’m not sure why the government’s policy affects how people decide to take care of themselves. It is hypocritical to be anti big government during a pandemic, and then pontificate over every detail of the Governor’s edict. Who cares how the general public goes about it. You can breathe on your own. (Without the opinion of your Doctor, psak of your Rav, and protocol of your Governor.)To those who wish to see the truth, not lies spawned by AP or other liberal media outlets, please see Dr. Zalenko’s videos or his 2 minute interview from Will Witt (PragerU) Re using hydroxychloroquine for over 699 patients early (not after hospitalization, when it is generally too late) …
Or Dr Yvette Lozano of Texas, who has also used hydroxychloroquine and also had a 100% success rate.
FDA threatening lawsuits and NY and Texas and others, limiting a doctor’s ability to give those two scrips, in one way or the other, is criminal and unheard of. All to “prove” that Trump is inefficient and ineffective. Here in Maryland, a wife of a former employee who now works for a hospital, met me at a grocery store at checkout. I asked how everyone was and she whispered to me that she and her husband both got it and they took hydroxychloroquine and got better, Baruch HaShem! (He was a step away from the hospital.)
Why did she whisper?Dear Yisroel,
She doesn’t want anyone to think that she believes chicken soup is medicine.“All to “prove” that Trump is inefficient and ineffective. ”
We all know Trump is inefficient and ineffective. Whether or not HCQ works will not change that.
At any rate, Trump has since moved on from HCQ,“Why did she whisper?”
Probably becasue she had laryngitis, perhaps due to covid19 ?cent cent
“Of course each life is precious and we try to do whatever we can to save it. ”lol clearly not “every life”
“It’s very likely that the lockdown actually will cause more deaths in addition to the economic harm”
If this is your argment (and it is a reaosnable one) stick to it. Offer real numbers to back it up, not made up ones. But dont fill your posts with nonsensical “filler” like not shutting down for flu or people dying every day regardless (then pretending “every life” is precious”Im not saying you are wrong. And as the ICU’s are no empty some colleagues are arguing to open things up “we will fill our ICU’s with the next wave, save who we can and bury who we can’t” Again, I’m not saying this is wrong per se ( due to reasons mentioned though I find t hard to believe halacha would support sucha n approach) but this is your plan be clear about it: Yes more people will die but less people than protracted economic downturn and delayed cancer treatments etc. .
I also don;t understand the obsession with mortality rate.
Simple question. If you somehow had a choice between two diseases: A. will infect 1,000,000 people out of 1,000, 000 in your community and 10,000 will die r”l ie a 1% fatality rate. B will infect 1000 people and 500 will die ie a 50% fatality rate (eg Ebola) would you say B is worse since fatality rate is 50%
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