EXPLAINER: Covid Regulations Post-Vaccine

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  • #1949346
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    It may take months, but soon the US and the rest of the world will catch up with Israel and vaccines will be easily available for all.

    It is pretty clear by now that vaccinated people are EXTREMELY unlikely to have serious reactions to Covid – if they catch it at all – regardless of the surrounding population’s Covid state (correct me if I’m wrong).

    However in Israel – and Jen Psaki has said this about the US too – this ‘full vaccine availability’ stage does not mean we can all go back to normal life, instead we need most people to get vaccinated and even then we might still have restrictions.

    My question is; why? Why can’t this be a ‘to each his own’ situation, in which if you don’t want to die; get vaccinated, and if you don’t mind catching the virus; that’s your problem?

    This is not about anti-vaax, mandatory vaccines or politics, this is about people making their own choices especially when it effects only themselves.

    #1949392
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    Most of the reason why there’s a pandemic is that the approach of “to each their own” doesn’t work since it puts other people in danger.

    The reason why we still have to be careful is that the vaccine is 95% effective. Meaning that one out of 20 people aren’t affected by it and still have to be careful. Since we don’t know who those people are, it means that everyone has to be careful. Statistically, that’s not an issue if everyone is vaccinated, since 5% is still really small. But since most people are still not vaccinated, that 5% partying like it’s 2019 can be a real danger to some people.

    #1949399
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    Hello, hello. Earth to Yserbius, hello…
    Is there a reason you are pretending a huge percentage of some communities doesn’t already have antibodies? I have kids in several schools and yeshivos who have had covid run through more than 95% some of our shuls as well.
    There was recently a simcha, stuffed and full, of people who allllll had antibodies. That was the condition that they were invited with. And you know what you would have said if you passed them on the street? You probably would have blamed them for murder. Why? Not because of their behavior, but because of your ignorance.
    IT’S NOT PRE COVID ANYMORE, YOU CANNOT KEEP PUSHING THE “WE’RE ALL AT RISK” AGENDA!

    #1949402
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    >Most of the reason why there’s a pandemic is that the approach of “to each their own” doesn’t work since it puts other people in danger.<

    That is true until ‘vaccines will be easily available for all’.

    >Meaning that one out of 20 people aren’t affected by it and still have to be careful<

    I clearly said in the OP that even those who are vaccinated and catch the virus are ‘EXTREMELY unlikely to have serious reactions’ (correct me if I’m wrong).
    So why not go back to ‘partying like it’s 2019’?

    #1949407

    Syag >> covid run through more than 95% some of our shuls as well.

    You sound weirdly proud of your aveiros. could you verify the 95% number?
    Check how many people are in the hospital from your wider community – significantly less than before?
    Note that making conclusions from a very small circle of neighbors may be misleading, you need to look at larger population. Virus comes and goes in clusters. So, there might be a time period
    with no cases, and then suddenly a cluster.

    If the real number is 50% (this is Russia and Mexico level) and not 95%, then transmission will be reduced significantly, but not fully.

    For a comparison, there was a recent conference organized by a world-known technology “futurist”, who gave PCR tests to those who wanted to attend in person. Despite that, there was a cluster of cases among attendees. Futurist apologized but seemingly is still believed to predict the future …

    #1949406
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    CDC says that we are unsure whether the vaccine protects against infecting others not vaccinated as the virus is dormant in you and protects you against infection by creating antibodies.

    #1949430

    Raboisem, savlanut. Israel is producing the answers to all these questions. We should know clearly in 1-2 months.

    There are preliminary studies saying that vaccinated people have lower load and thus decrease probability of infecting others.

    #1949440
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    >CDC says that we are unsure whether the vaccine protects against infecting others not vaccinated as the virus is dormant in you and protects you against infection by creating antibodies.<
    >There are preliminary studies saying that vaccinated people have lower load and thus decrease probability of infecting others.<

    Infecting who?
    The vaccinated? No problem.
    The unvaccinated? Their problem.

    So again, why not reopen?

    #1949441
    ☕ DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    Meaning that one out of 20 people aren’t affected by it and still have to be careful.

    Yet more disinformation from you.

    1 out of 20 people might still get Covid, but that doesn’t mean they were not affected by the vaccine. 0 out of 20 people got seriously ill from Covid after receiving both vaccines (after a week or two from the second vaccine dose).

    So you’re saying that we still need to be cautious even after the vaccine is widespread is evidence of either your ignorance, or that you have an agenda to unnecessary restrict people.

    #1949442
    ☕ DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    CDC says that we are unsure whether the vaccine protects against infecting others not vaccinated as the virus is dormant in you and protects you against infection by creating antibodies.

    You are missing MadeAliyah’s point. Which others are going to be affected? Only those who chose not to get vaccinated.

    #1949455
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    Always Ask – wow, you have brought clear meaning to the word ‘misspoke’.

    #1949471
    charliehall
    Participant

    The vaccine does not prevent you from getting infected, it prevents you from dying if you do get infected. You can still pass on an infection to someone else. And if they have not been vaccinated that could kill them. You want that on your conscience?

    Also, it is not clear how long the antibodies last after being infected or after being vaccinated.

    Furthermore, evidence is that even 70% herd immunity is not enough to get the pandemic to die out. Famously a town in Brazil had that level and still have a massive deadly second wave. I am doing some research into this area right now with some other data and so far things are depressing. We may need to get 80% or even higher immunity. Currently no NYC zip code even has a 50% antibody positive test rate so we are nowhere near being able to think about herd immunity.

    Besides, killing off the stupid is not something Jews should be advocating.

    #1949507
    ☕ DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    Besides, killing off the stupid is not something Jews should be advocating.

    I happen to agree with that answer to MakeAliyah’s question.

    The question is if antivaxxers are stupid, or defiant? And does that change our responsibility to them?

    #1949509

    Charlie, glad to see someone working on this! If you are doing analysis, it got to be by a connected cluster, not just by zip code. People mostly communicate within their own group .. you can use maybe mobility data + estimate ethnicity from names to see if there are tighter cluster – maybe some indeed are 95% …

    #1949510
    ☕ DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    However, I seriously question how likely it is for someone who has been vaccinated to be contagious. The medical guidance I have gotten is that someone who has antibodies does not need to quarantine if exposed to someone with Covid. Although I am aware that not everyone agrees with this, even the CDC which is generally very cautious does give a window of 76 days during which a vaccinated person does not need to quarantine if exposed.

    #1949527

    >> how likely it is for someone who has been vaccinated to be contagious

    again, preliminary results show that you are right. But opposite thinking goes as following: vaccine may prevent serious illness more than viral load. Then, vaccinated person will be walking around feeling healthy but possibly infect others, especially those with whom they are in prolonged contact, such as family. Just like children …

    Even if the load reduction is confirmed, the question is – by how much. Would it be enough not to reduce other measures. And the main protection, of course – despite the threads online – is not the masks, but deciding where not to go.

    #1949538
    ☕ DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    So do you think the CDC is jumping the gun by allowing vaccinated people to avoid quarantine even when exposed?

    #1949540
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    I had the wuhan virus last april. In July I tested positive for anti odies but not even enough for plasma donation (28 whatevers). 10 months later I still have 28. I doubt I’m an exception, i think immunity lasts a lot longer than they want to commit to saying.

    #1949547

    >> CDC is jumping the gun by allowing vaccinated people to avoid quarantine even when exposed?

    good question. Maybe they have numbers, or feeling pressure from politicians. When politicians say that “they will follow science”, they take responsibility from themselves but MIGHT be pressuring scientists behind the scenes.

    Hopefully, this is a transient question: if vaccines decrease prevalence of the virus, then it will be easier for everyone.

    #1949575
    Thinking out loud
    Participant

    For context: Can anyone describe a different illness in which a vaccinated person can give the illness to others, while not sick themselves?

    Is this specific to Covid 19? Is it specific to the system of using mRna to create the protection?

    Actual real knowledge is appreciated. Please include your sources. If you are expressing an opinion, or a personal conclusion based on a combination of whatsapp, legacy media and you neighbors, please just make that clear!

    Thanks!

    #1949596
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    Professor @charliehall, I really appreciate you taking the time to share your knowledge and expertise in this field.
    You raised three main concerns that I feel may not be valid, so please show me were I am mistaken:

    1. It is not clear how long the antibodies last after being infected or after being vaccinated.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but when we do find out how long the antibodies last, that will be the time period after which it will be recommended to revaccinate, so we’re back to square one.

    2. It is necessary to achieve herd immunity.

    Why? The vaccinated are safe regardless and the unvaccinated have themselves to blame.

    3. Killing off the stupid is not something Jews should be advocating.

    Of course not, but this is not killing by intention, this is killing by living your life. For example, you wouldn’t run over a stupid person lying on the road, but you also wouldn’t give up driving completely in case a stupid person will run into the road and you’ll kill him.

    #1949651
    Ayiddishekup
    Participant

    There are ppl hu can’t get vaccinated bec if medical conditions what about them?

    #1949663
    Meno
    Participant

    There are ppl hu can’t get vaccinated bec if medical conditions what about them?

    So we’ll be wearing masks etc. forever?

    #1949677
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    >There are people who can’t get vaccinated because of medical conditions what about them?<

    Who? The CDC has a list on their website that lists all possible medical conditions and allows them all to be vaccinated but warns that there is limited information on side-effects.
    So to answer your question; there aren’t ‘people who can’t get vaccinated’.
    (Again, correct me if I’m wrong.)

    #1949682
    Meno
    Participant

    So to answer your question; there aren’t ‘people who can’t get vaccinated’.

    Well of course they CAN get vaccinated, there’s just no information as to whether the vaccine is safe or effective for those people.

    I’m not a doctor, but it would seem reasonable to me that the vaccine would be less effective or completely ineffective on someone who is immunocompromised.

    #1949699
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    @Meno I’m also not a doctor but:

    1. I highly doubt the CDC would allow immunocompromised people to be vaccinated if it may be unsafe and likely ineffective.

    2. Many immunocompromised people are already in protected environments such as a hospital.

    #1949703
    Meno
    Participant

    I highly doubt the CDC would allow immunocompromised people to be vaccinated if it may be unsafe and likely ineffective.

    From the CDC website: “Immunocompromised individuals can receive COVID-19 vaccination if they have no contraindications to vaccination. However, they should be counseled about the unknown vaccine safety profile and effectiveness in immunocompromised populations, and the potential for reduced immune responses and the need to continue to follow all current guidance to protect themselves against COVID-19 (see below).”

    Many immunocompromised people are already in protected environments such as a hospital.

    I don’t think this is true. There are plenty of people undergoing chemo treatment in outpatient settings. That’s just one example.

    #1949717
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    @Meno

    The Immunocompromised ‘community’ make up 3.6% of the US population, they are also in danger of the flu and remember, most of them will survive. It makes more sense to invest in keeping them protected – which we should have always done – then keeping the world under Covid restrictions forever.

    #1949719
    Meno
    Participant

    MadeAliyah,

    I agree with you on that.

    I was disagreeing with the people who said that the point of continuing precautions after everyone is vaccinated is in order to protect those who can’t be vaccinated.

    #1949750
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    So we are back to square one.

    This is a serious question, is there no good answer?

    #1949784
    Meno
    Participant

    It’s likely just because it’s easier for them to play it safe. Bottom line is they don’t know anything for sure. Remember “two weeks to flatten the curve”?

    No one will have a problem if they suddenly decide to ease up restrictions, but if they decide to tighten restrictions when they said they wouldn’t everyone will call them liars.

    #1949829
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    @Meno

    I don’t think they are just playing it safe. The science is clear, when fully vaccinated you are more likely to be struck by lightning than to die of Covid.

    Yet in Israel the vaccinated still need to mask and socially distance and in all likelihood the US will follow suit even when vaccines are fully available.

    Till when? And why?

    #1949872

    All these are “first world problems”. How about – do we have a moral reason to vaccinate low-risk groups while there are hundreds of millions of high-risk people all over the world who will not get a vaccine for maybe years?

    Should Jews at least make sure to help Jewish communities in 3rd world countries?

    #1949875
    ujm
    Participant

    If the permit the vaccinated to go around unmasked and socially mingle closely, they’ll have no way to effectively stop those who are not vaccinated from taking advantage by acting in public as if they’re vaccinated.

    #1949944
    MadeAliyah
    Participant

    >Should Jews at least make sure to help Jewish communities in 3rd world countries?<

    Great idea for a new thread.

    >If they permit the vaccinated to go around unmasked and socially mingle closely, they’ll have no way to effectively stop those who are not vaccinated from taking advantage by acting in public as if they’re vaccinated.<

    Why should they not let the unvaccinated ‘go around unmasked and socially mingle’?

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