Taking bets re Israel’s government

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  • #1982338
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    How long do you think the government will last

    I say less than 3 months

    #1982469
    CTLAWYER
    Participant

    @coffee Addict
    I agree, but probably less than 60 days

    #1982461
    lakewhut
    Participant

    All of the parties that are in this govt know they’re not popular. So they’ll do whatever it takes to keep it together

    #1982477
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Ctlawyer,

    Wow, moshiach must be coming! We rarely agree on anything

    Lakewhut,

    The Arabs aren’t beholden to anyone and once they get what they want will bolt (and if they see they’re not getting it fast enough will also bolt)

    #1982482

    I bet on the Jewish people lasting longer than others.

    #1982493
    huju
    Participant

    AAQ gave a sound answer.

    #1982509
    ujm
    Participant

    AAQ didn’t address the question. The incoming government is partially Arab. And the Jewish people aren’t represented by this government.

    CTL gave a sound answer to the question.

    #1982546
    CTLAWYER
    Participant

    I believe that the Arab world will put extreme pressure (and pay money) to the Arab party to withdraw from the coalition. It is in the Arab world’s best interests to have Israel without a government that can rule.

    #1982614

    > It is in the Arab world’s best interests to have Israel without a government that can rule.

    Jewish people survived “without the government” for centuries during time of shoftim, as well as the last several years. Fastest vaccination campaign in the world “without the government”. Several peace agreements.

    to answer the original question: It well may be that such a strange government, united only by the desire to keep the government” will lead to some healthy dialog. Israeli governments are often simply separate groups trying to tax the other guy and get something to themselves. This is not advancing society at all. So now, it is hard to imagine that each individual minister will succeed doing something that others disagree with. They’ll try and there will be a lot of drama. Maybe Bennett will be able to advance some right-wing policies relying on Knesset opposition support for them. Maybe other factions will join and there will be 119 member faction, agreeing only on excluding Bibi.

    #1982615

    CTL, rich Arab countries are done undermining Israel. They may even prefer a righter government that will be stronger against Iran.

    #1982630
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    “How long do you think the government will last?”

    As long as it takes to prosecute, convict and put Netanyahu in a jail cell since their common hatred of Bibi is the glue that holds this coalition together. Likud and the religious parties had years to rid the country of Netanyahu and form a right-wing coalition but each time the egos of the various party leaders and the outrageous demands of the religious parties allowed Netanyahu to retain power. Now they are paying the price for their intransigence.

    #1982634

    Gadol > Likud and the religious parties had years to rid the country of Netanyahu

    I am sure you can list reasons to not like bib or his policies, but to suggest that all parties, including those n the coalition, should have a goal of get rid of a prime-minister with so many successes sounds absurd.

    #1982642
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    I’m not saying they “should” have a common goal to rid the country of Netanyahu. Indeed, I suspect the new coalition will share may of his policies just as Biden has continued Trump’s policies on certain issues such as trade, etc. The reality is that all of these parties want power in a post-Bibi world and ultimately refused to sit in a government with him. As I indicated, Likud on several occasions had the opportunity to oust Netanyahu as head of the party but each time he outmaneuvered his opponents.

    #1982648
    ujm
    Participant

    In short, it’s all been a personal political attainment game. They all wanted to rise to higher political office and Netanyahu was in their way. They decided Netanyahu had “his turn” in office, long enough, and it was now “their turn”. So they collectively ganged up to throw him overboard, irregardless of his abilities to govern safely.

    After all, it is their turn now.

    #1982677
    hml
    Participant

    It’s all about personal interests: Bennett is obsessed with being PM; Lieberman is determined to destroy any vestiges of Jewish life; Lapid is just a suave lowlife who is waiting in the wings to impose his agenda.

    But because nobody in Israel can get along politically with anyone it will collapse soon. I can only pray they don’t do any damage before then.

    #1982721
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    ujm, irregardless is a double negative. Should be regardless.

    #1982741
    ujm
    Participant

    Thank you, Morah Eliezer.

    Alternatively, the new government might survive close to four years, with Lapid becoming PM. It might do so by them having constant nightmares of Netanyahu taking back over, thus keeping them all in line but obviously resulting in a do-nothing government, other than keeping the sanitation running and other basic functions.

    #1982930
    akuperma
    Participant

    You have to define terms. If you are asking whether the government (i.e. a Bennett-Lapid led coalition of all parties, far right to far left, plus some Arabs) as it exists today will survive in this form, it probably will be measured in months if not weeks. However asking if a coalition led by Bennett and excluding Netanyahu will survive, that changes the odds, since while Bennett will probably lose all the left wing parties he can pick up Hareidim and Likud (once Netanyahu retires as party leader). One needs to realize that most of the right wing and centrist parties in Israel are Likud spin-offs, so if Bennett can get Netanyahu out of the picture they can all “spin-on” to a “new” Likud, and Bennett is well position to lead it. In a parliamentary system, especially with proportional representation, a “coalition” routinely can add and subtract members while staying intact.

    #1983045
    besalel
    Participant

    we should all prepare for elections to take place around chanuka time.

    #1983053
    Health
    Participant

    CA – As soon as Hamas fires the first rocket!
    That will be right after the Jerusalem March.
    The Arabs in the gov. will split.
    Lapid will give them everything, but Tel Aviv.

    Bennett knows nothing about a Real War.
    It will all end up on Defense Minister Hands.
    He won’t be able to handle it alone.
    Bibi was a good Partner.
    The Arabs will attack from the North.
    And Hezbollah, Syria and probably Iran will join in!
    This is the moment that they were waiting for – a weak Israel!

    #1983066
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Akuperma,

    There’s no way that a party of 7 will have the premiere if there is a party that has 30 in the coalition

    #1983108
    akuperma
    Participant

    Coffee Addict – If you count all the Likud break-aways (Likudniks who didn’t get along with Bibi), the “Greater Likud” has 60+ seats, and if Bibi drops out of the picture (perhaps a deal not to throw him in in jail in return for accepting an unpaid decision as a senior statesman), the question then is who is best positioned to take over the Right-Center bloc, and as long as he doesn’t burn bridges, that’s Bennett. The people who broke away from Likud all left because of Netanyahu, and in general have no ideological disputes, so coming back, either in an alliance or formally rejoining Likud, is no big deal. By virtue of being Prime Minister, Bennett is poised to take over leadership of the Right-Center of the Israeli spectrum in a post-Bibi environment.

    #1983142

    akuperma, I am not sure whether current coalition agreement would allow Bennett to change his coalition unilaterally without Lapid’s agreement. Anyone read thru the fine print.

    but we know one bet: it is reported that Bibi is staying in his residency for a couple of weeks. Probably, this is how long he thinks the coalition will last, and does not want to bother going back and forth!

    #1983169
    Yabia Omer
    Participant

    Lieberman DOES NOT want to destroy and vestige of Judaism. He just wants to ride the country of the mockery that “Haredim” have created. “Haredim” and politics do not mix. Period.

    #1983222
    ruvain
    Participant

    Ill put my money on somewhere between Tisha Buv and Rosh Hoshannah

    #1983243
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Yabia Omer,

    I remember you are a staunch supporter of Maran R Ovadia (as evidenced from your screen name) and it seems he would disagree very strongly (especially with the language)

    #1983309
    Yabia Omer
    Participant

    Yabia Omer is from a pasuk in Tehilim. True that Maran had a book by that name. But no connection on my end

    #1983318
    philosopher
    Participant

    I’m worried about the harmful Reform and civil laws that may be passed during this current government. I am also worried about the hundreds of thousands of non-Jews that are integrating with Jewish Israelis. Regarding security, I am not so think that this supposedly liberal government will be less reliable than Netanyahu who always immaturely stopped campaigns to route out Hamas which gave them time to become deadlier and more dangerous over the years. I may read them wrong, but IMO leiberman and Bennett will not let Hamas off the hook as easily as Netanyahu did.

    As for how long this government will last, I think that they may shlep as long as Netanyahu is head of the Likud. I think it’s crazy that Netanyahu feels that the position of the prime minister of Israel belongs to him forever. It’s time for him to step down or be replaced.

    #1983326
    ujm
    Participant

    Yabia, you failed to address coffee addicts’s main point that you’re expressing opinions that are the polar opposite of, and indeed spitting in the face of, Maran.

    #1983337
    ZSK
    Participant

    Two options: 1) it’ll fall apart within the next year or so or (2) will last 2-3 years.

    Israel thankfully survived the likes of Shimon Peres, it’ll G-d willing survive this government as well.

    #1983491
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Well, let’s see what happens now that the idf hit Hamas, will the Arabs bolt and topple the government and go to new elections which will kill עין עתיד and שמאלה

    #1983493
    Health
    Participant

    Phil -“I may read them wrong, but IMO leiberman and Bennett will not let Hamas off the hook as easily as Netanyahu did.”

    You are Deadly wrong!
    This is Not Liberman & Bennett’s government.
    It’s between those and extreme Leftists & Arabs.
    Do you really think this government will be stronger than Bibi?!?
    The more Likely scenario is this government will cave in to the Worse Terrorist Arabs!
    Then the Jews will be in the Fight for the Lives, if Moshiach doesn’t come!
    How quickly Jews forget what happened in WW2.

    The only thing that this government has in common – is that they all hate the Frumme.
    Hashem won’t allow the destruction of the Real Jews – B’nai Torah!

    #1983502

    >> is that they all hate the Frumme.
    Health,
    while there are some groups in the government that it is right to oppose, there is something wrong with the picture that you feel opposed by Bennett, who represents shomer-shabbat Jews who are riskign their lives for Eretz Israel, and Liberman, who represents survivors of Soviet and Nazi occupations that were miraculously saved at the last step before total annihilation and assimilation. If Hashem had your attitude, he would end up leaving us in Mitzraim with all the despicable habits we picked up there, and just started a new nation with Moshe.

    #1983504

    >> let’s see what happens now that the idf hit Hamas,

    interesting indeed. But BEnnett can not go to elections until he has some tangible achievements. He burned the bridges, he will get 0 votes.

    Abbas showed himself fully assimilated into Israeli culture – he out-bargained Bibi. So, he also will not quit until he gets shekels for his community and increase his share of arab votes.

    this could be a good multi-player chess-like strategy game. Is there a kness-election game on the market?

    #1983523
    Health
    Participant

    AAQ -“who represents shomer-shabbat Jews who are riskign their lives for Eretz Israel,”

    Another Liberal Lie!
    They took a pole of the Voters that went for Yamima, and 2/3s wouldn’t vote for them again, because of his actions to join Lapid.

    “Liberman, who represents survivors of Soviet and Nazi occupations that were miraculously saved at the last step before total annihilation and assimilation”

    He’s a different story.
    He hates the Frumme, because his Son became a BT.

    #1983528
    Yabia Omer
    Participant

    Haredim and politics do not mix. They’ve made a mockery of yiddishkeit in Israel.

    #1983557
    Health
    Participant

    YO -“They’ve made a mockery of yiddishkeit in Israel.”

    Probably true; but they are still better than Bennett’s government.
    Because his government is not making a mockery, but they are going Full Speed to Remove any Torah from every Jew!
    Even with the many previous Governments – No one was planning to go that Far!

    #1983558
    ujm
    Participant

    AAQ: Lieberman represents the Russian goyim who were invited to Israel by the leftists seeking to dilute Judaism with gentiles who had a paternal Jewish grandfather and then underwent, after immigration, a Reform-like fake conversion under the Druckman court; and who are eating chazer and driving on Shabbos before getting dry from the mikva water. Lieberman is an opponent of Judaism and a hater of people who follow the Torah.

    #1983569

    ujm, you are right – Lieberman probably does not represent all olim from Russia. It looks like Rusim are 15-20% of voters, that would mean 18-24 seats, or say 15 seats as they probably vote less than others. So, L gets not more than 50% of the Rusim votes and maybe less as probably at least some of his current voters are anti-religious sabras. So, it makes sense that he would represent the more anti-religious and non-Jewish Russian population. Still, not all Russians are like the gentleman I described in another thread. It may be that you are looking at these people and you just can not imagine a Jew behaving like that and you conclude that they are not Jewish. I can see a lot of Jewish Russians being non-religious or anti-religious – they spent 70 years in anti-religious environment. And I don’t think they even intermarried more than American Jews through the same time period. I admit I do not have hard numbers on all of this, if you have different numbers to support that his voters are all non-Jews – please post.

    #1983574

    Health > They took a pole of the Voters that went for Yamima, and 2/3s wouldn’t vote for them again, because of his actions to join Lapid.

    Agree. I don’t think he is crazy (for power). I think he plans to earn his voters back, acting accordingly. Thus, I presume that his future actions will represents his community. I am not sure of that, we will see.

    > [Lieberman] hates the Frumme, because his Son became a BT.

    I don’t think so. He joined Israeli politics a while ago, his son was probably a kid. What is the back story – how did his kid do teshuva? did he let him go somewhere? did they argue? did something in the family values helped him?

    L seems to be an example of a politician changing voter base – I think he was first a Likudnik, then started representing Russians in general, mostly economically, and later turned more to opposing Haredim. Maybe because Russians who were assimilating either into religious or secular cultures were switcing to other parties, and he ended up with the “core” un-assimilated group and also added other anti-religious? I wonder whether he can sit down with his son and develop a positive program for Charedim – focusing on literacy, work, doing it gradually without oppression, and less on “hot” issues for his supporters – shabbat, kashrut.

    #1983583
    Health
    Participant

    AAQ -“and later turned more to opposing Haredim”

    And I’m saying the reason why he started hating Charaidim, is because his son became a BT!
    Maybe he feels betrayed?!?
    These Russkies are very Unknowledgeable about the Torah.
    They think being Frum is a Rebellion against them!
    They don’t know about Torah, Mitzvos & Olam Haboh.

    #1983649

    Health > Maybe he feels betrayed?!?

    > They don’t know about Torah, Mitzvos & Olam Haboh.

    well, it’s mostly our fault, not theirs. Maybe less in US where people can disappear, but surely in Israel.
    In truth, what is demographics of Russians in Israel now? Are there more non-religious among them than among sabras? haver knesset Zeev Elkin is Russian, Ithink, and in a kippah. Maybe you are already used to Tel Aviv Israelis and recognize them as Jews, but not with the ways Russians behave.

    R Steinsaltz Z’L writes that Israel is always on edge because people feel annoyed by the mannerism they are not used to (Chasidim coming late, Yekkies coming on time …) and in Israel you are daily confronted with multitudes of other cultures.

    #1983651
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    The past several years and 4 elections later, some still cling to the notion that the Israeli political system will yield a “representative” government coalition. It is a dysfunctional system that empowers individuals who can gain short-term notoriety and media attention along with small block voting constituencies who can extort the larger pluralistic parties to “join” a coalition while continuing to threaten to bring down the government unless they are paid more and more for their “support”.

    #1983690
    philosopher
    Participant

    YO, how about the secular and politics don’t mix? It is they who have made a mockery out of Yiddishkeit in Israel and desperately want to harm whatever remnants of protection of Yiddishkeit the Zionist government still harbors. The secular are to be mocked for wanting to hold on to governing in the Land of Israel of which they have no rights to if not for our connection through the Torah which they seem to destroy.

    #1983697
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Gadolhadorah,

    How’s Israel’s system different than Europe where it works?

    #1983854
    Health
    Participant

    AAQ -“well, it’s mostly our fault, not theirs”

    That’s is the most ridiculous comment here on YWN.
    Since the Zionists came pouring into EY, the Frum Jews have been the minority.
    And yet we have been constantly trying to Meakarev them since the 50’s.
    Not just that – in the US, most do not care one way or another, but in Israel – a lot of Zionists hate the Religious Jews!
    So how could you even think that it is possible that we have anything to do with their Observance of Judaism?!?

    #1983852
    philosopher
    Participant

    Health, Leiberman and Bennett will want to gain some brownie points from their supporters so I will be surprised if they cave in on the security issue. You see that even with the Arab party in the government, they did not give in to the Hamas and liberals and let the Israelis have their Flag Parade… Maybe I am wrong and they will give in eventually to some new “peace” des, but as of now I am assuming that they wont.

    I do think the “right-wingers” in the government don’t care enough to stand up for Torah values, they care more that the government shouldn’t collapse so they will cave in easily to the with regards to religious issues.

    #1983835

    coffee, a good question. First, Europeans have different voters.
    2nd – their life is more homogeneous and less eventful. If you can have a machloket in N dimensions (economy, religion, Arabs, etc), then you get a chance to create 2^N + 1 parties (one in the center) ..
    3rd – who said European system works? Weimar republic fell, French are already on Fifth republic, Italians are having same balagan as Israelis. Brits seem to figure out parliamentary system.

    #1983888
    Health
    Participant

    Phil -“Health, Leiberman and Bennett will want to gain some brownie points from their supporters so I will be surprised if they cave in on the security issue.”

    They won’t have a Choice.
    All that happened so far is some balloons.
    When there is a Real War – this Coalition will Fold like a Pack of Cards!

    #1983972

    health > So how could you even think that it is possible that we have anything to do with their Observance of Judaism?!?

    I can resort to R Salanter who said that the person who is not learning well in Lita affects non-observant professor in Paris … What I mean is that in US, people often do not meet. In Israel, non-observant people can observe observant one closely. There was just in the news – that several haverim knesset, including an Arab one, praised R Gafni’s performance as a finance minister, who apparently worked not just “for his sector” but everyone. This affects people, and there are many other cases like that. Specifically, Russian olim came from their own tsoros, they were not part of Ben Gurion’s government. If you speak Yiddish, you could go and try to talk to those who do.

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