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There are approximately 5.5 million people who are halachically Jewish in Israel. Approximately 35 percent are considered religious.
Within 10 years the religious jewish population will reach around 58-70 percent of the jewish population
I have established four reasons why this is true.
1) The high birth rate of religious families
2) The “transfer” of secular to religious Jews –
The vast majority of the thousands of annual yordim are secular
and the vast majority of olim are religious.
3) The Baalei Tshuva movement- tens of thousands become frum every year
4) The “slow death” of liberalism- Israelis are getting tired of making concessions to the arabs and are becoming increasingly right-wing which in turn makes them less secular
ALL THESE FACTORS INCREASE BECOME STRONGER EVERY YEAR
I left out the exact statistics and sources but it can all be found in good old google
Let’s keep “shtil” and avoid ayin hara
akuperma suggested the religious Jews could team up with the religious Muslims to outvote the secular Jews.
If that were so, we would see, for example, increasing opposition to gay rights, marriage with non-Jews, or conversion in which the convert is not expected to become Shomer Shabbos. That isn’t happening. What we see is the ruling class is increasingly and militantly secular, which is why we see programs designed to surpress the frum community (banning non-rabbinut kashrus, conscripting yeshiva students, and attempts to close down schools that don’t support zionism). One would also expect, if Israeli is moving towards being more Jewish, that non-kosher food vendors would be going broke or becoming kosher – and that isn’t happening.
Tens of thousads of jews do not become frum every year. Most like the BT’s are crossed out by the OTD’s and therefore at best a zero sum game (Its possible the OTDers outnumber the BT’s)
And dont count out Zerah Yisroel people, they are a significant number
ZD: There are four BTs for every one OTD.
akuperma,
Chazal tell us (Shabbos 54b) that those who could be “mocheh” (lit.
protest) against wrongdoers of their city/country are held accountable for
their aveiros;…
while it is one thing to become religious
on a private,personal level.it is often enough contain an element of escapism
It’s a much more demanding and greater thing to operate on a Klal or global level
Public chillul shabbos is more important than,say, your mussaf
The oft stated claim first one needs to work on themselves is often out of context and a sort of cop out
For the militantly secular,they are unconcerned about individuals becoming religious as long as they still in control behind the scenes
It’s like in the game of Othello.they’ll let you can turn many to white ,but as long they get the last one black ( or vice versa) ,they’ll be able to flip them all back
BT’s arent as growing as fast as you are led to belive and unfortunatly many BT’s also at some point leave for various reasons
Most OTDs eventually come back to frumkeit.
If the population will be mostly religious, will non-religious people still constitute the majority of the army? and political positions? or will more frum people accept responsibility for the country and its institutions? Many people often complain that the government does this or that, but without acknowledging that the country is a democracy, and that frum people have just as much opportunity to run for these positions of power as anyone else. Why don’t more frum people run for these positions instead of spending so much time kvetching about policies? If more people from bnei brak and me’ah sh’arim joined local and national governments, they would have a much better chance of making the country the kind of place they want instead of needing to kvetch about the chilonim.
zahavasdad,
the term chozer b’tshuva over there ,is more vague than BT in North america
I’m a statistician, not a demographer, but it appears that there must be a huge amount of going OTD among charedim in Israel. In 2015, United Torah Judaism received 5.0% of the vote in the Knesset election. Sixty years earlier, the Religious Torah Front had received 4.7%. With the much higher birthrate among charedim, there should have been a huge increase but there wasn’t any.
If most Israelis become religious be had better hope that they are Dati and not Charedi because if the latter the IDF will dwindle down to nothing and the Arab rashaim will overrun us all.
Charlie,
Don’t worry. The Chareidim are becoming more nationalistic and the RZs are becoming more oriented towards learning. I heard from Rav Yeshayahu Steinberger in the names of both Rav Kook and Rav Soloveichik that this is the meaning of Yehezkel’s statement that Yosef’s stick will unite with Yehuda’s stick. Yosef was fully involved in the general society (Mizrahi) and Yehuda established a state within a state in Goshen )Aguda).
As for your demographic question, First of all the UTJ, Shas and Yachad (which did not pass the threshold for representation) together received a total of 13,7% for a total of thirteen seats. Add to that the working Chareidim who voted for either Bayit Yehudi or Likud (the latter has a Chareidi faction) because they did not feel represented by any of the Chareidi parties. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics the Chareidi growth rate was 5% and the non-Chareidi Jewish growth rate 1.2%. Even if there is a 20% OTD rate (the high estimate, which does not take into account Chareidim who become RZ) that still means that the Chareidim are growing faster than the non-Chareidim.
The Israeli election is not exactly a good indicator of charedi population
Satmar for example do not vote in elections and Rav Shmuel Auerbach said there was nobody to vote for and his followers did not vote (Likely costing UTJ a Knesset seat) also not all charedim vote for charedi parties. More than a few voted for mainstream parties like HaBayin Hayehudi and Likud (They know this from election results in Charedi districts especially Bnei Brak
from the 2015 election results in Bnei Brak
United Torah Judaism won 59.35%
Shas 23.97%
Yahad 5.5%
Likud 4.57%
Habayit Hayehudi 2.35%
Zionist Union (Labor) 1.28%
Kulanu 1.15%
When the Israeli newspapers are full of stories about non-kosher restaurants and Shabbos entertainments going out of business due to lack of demand, I’ll believe it.
It’s of interest, that the mizrachi/old dati would legitimatize the sovereignty of the old secularist state, ,by saying there were reshoyim[men] who reigned during Bayis Rishon
Well, they turn and support dati women in Knesset , because it’s better to have women who espouses our religious ,then secularist men
(they’re probably right,but we digress)
1) The high birth rate of religious families
In general Israel has the highest birthrate among developed countries – yes, the ultra Orthodox element is a part of it, but Secular Israelis have a higher than average birthrate too. A 2013 study by Yaakov Feitelson actually indicated that Ultra Orthodox Birthrates are falling and have been doing so for a decade as of 2013, though still significantly higher than the growing non chareidi birthrate which continues to climb and is just about as high now as the declining Arab birthrate in Israel. So religious, yes. Secular too, and Chareidi, not as much or as fast as you might think.
A few issues of concern, though. The ICBS indicates that the proportion of the population over 65 will rise from 10% now to 17% by 2059. How will a growing chareidi population with a significant proportion who do not work and thus pay proportionate income tax, sustain this almost doubled proportion of senior citizens, when it is challenging to do so under present circumstances?
2) The “transfer” of secular to religious Jews –
The vast majority of the thousands of annual yordim are secular
and the vast majority of olim are religious.
Not so fast, though. 48% of those who left post 1990 have been people who made aliyah. Even factoring in people from the FSU, if as you say there are large numbers of frum immigrants, the numbers who went back are significant too, at least statistically. if you want to argue anecdotally, I can’t disagree, but your argument can’t be backed up, either.
Indeed, at least a plurality if not a majority of those immigrating – from the West – are religious, but a very large proportion of these are Religious Zionist and Modern Orthodox, and a smaller proportion are Chareidi. Not only that, but the last two years recorded, 2014 and 2015, have seen 30% to 40% of total immigration coming from Ukraine and the FSU, and the proportion of Frum from there is close to nil.
More importantly, put in a bigger picture, the numbers are less significant. in fact, total population growth has been in decline (though it is still stronger than any other developed country) for decades, with the exception of Soviet Jewish immigration in the 90’s)
1960 2,150,400 +57.0%
1970 3,022,100 +40.5%
1980 3,921,700 +29.8%
1990 4,821,700 +22.9%
2000 6,369,300 +32.1%
2010 7,695,100 +20.8%
2015 8,463,500 +10.0%
(all from Israel Central Bureau of Statistics)
3) The Baalei Tshuva movement- tens of thousands become frum every year
Though it doesn’t reflect the totality of the situation in Israel, the Pew report released in late 2013 indicated that part of the reason the Orthodox proportion of the population stayed static at 10% was the fact that while 150,000 Jews had become baalei teshuva within the time period studied, 330,000 raised Orthodox had left. Even if this is only partially reflective of the Israeli reality, the tens of thousands who come back are mostly balanced if not overbalanced by those who leave.
This is a statistic we have to pay attention to and understand if we are going to retain our children as well as bringing back those who were never frum.
4) The “slow death” of liberalism- Israelis are getting tired of making concessions to the arabs and are becoming increasingly right-wing which in turn makes them less secular
In fact the growth of the centre right, like Yesh Atid and Kulanu, as well as the continuing popularity of secular right wing parties like Yisrael Beiteinu and Likud, were reflected in the recent election. The chareidi parties were static, as was Shas, and Habayit Hayehudi got less than expected. It is far more surprising to listen to the pronouncements of Machane Hatzioni, so when Bougie Herzog says there is no current peace partner, and negotiates entry into Bibi’s coalition, it indicates that Israeli society as a whole, secular and religious, has become more right wing, with no reference to religion but much to security.
So, Rabbi of Crawley, I think the power of the religious is rising, but incrementally so. It may have more to do with the Religious Zionists than anyone else, who now make up a plurality of candidates in officer training in the IDF, who are building companies and employing more Israelis, who have a high birthrate and who engage with their secular brothers and ssiters every day. They have their problems too. So, frankly, does every element of society. (and not just in Israel)
After the primary and overwhelming consideration of ratzon hashem and emunah, Its what all Israelis and all Jews can do together that is going to keep us strong.
I mostly agree with Avi K’s refutation of Charlihall.
As far as the original posting’s “point 3”, I think it has successfully been proven to be irrelevant to the question at hand: Will Israel be majority “religious” in 10 years?
Charlie:
If most Israelis become religious be had better hope that they are Dati and not Charedi because if the latter the IDF will dwindle down to nothing and the Arab rashaim will overrun us all.
Me:
This is an interesting dynamic. If we take g-d out of the picture (which is reasonable for the purpose of discussion since one side states that the state is the will of g-d and the other that it is in direct contradiction to it), if Israel becomes mostly religious, will the charedim start serving to protect the state.
And if not, what happens to the state?
Akuperma, those newspapers cater to the non-observant public. BTW, when a restaurant in Raanana became shomer Shabbat one of the Meretz city councilors announced a boycott. He was immediately rebuked by his own party.Not to mention that there are two yeshivot gehohot in TA (one in the north and one in the south) which are doing great kiruv work. Not to mention Rosh Yehudi right off Dizengoff.
As for when Israel will be majority observant, it will not be in ten years unless you count those who make kidush and hamoetzi on leil Shabbat, have a formal family meal and then watch TV. However, it will not be long.
One of the problems with over reliance on stats is that they force people to crunch themselves into demographic or the other
Most of the traditional,a large % of the pop., float between all of the them, but answer what they presume the pollster wants
Just check recent pre-election polls
“If we take g-d out of the picture”
Of course HaShem is in charge of everything. But it is also asur to rely on miracles. The Arab Rashaim would drive us into the sea and we are obligated to protect ourselves militarily. Datim participate in this but for the most part Charedim don’t.
Charlie quoting me: “If we take g-d out of the picture”
My point simply was that there is a disagreement among the Torah world as to what Hashem’s will is so it is reasonable to remove that part from the discussion.
In any case, as you point out, the Torah is replete with people taking action in furtherance of Hashem’s will as relying on prayer alone is not sufficient. (i.e Yakov prays but also strategizes to avoid being killed by Eisav).
The real point was it seems that one of the following must be true A) Israel will remain mostly secular and have a large number of people to serve in the army, or B) Israel will become mostly religious and some of the religious are going to have to serve to protect the state.
Even if Israel becomes majority Chareidi and chareidim don’t serve in the army, there are enough non-chareidim (even if they’re a minority) to fully staff the army without Chareidi participation.
That there are enough does not mean they will willingly do it if half or more of the country is given an exemption. And even if they do, will they do it as well?
The American army has been doing quite well over the last 40 years of it having an all-volunteer army with no draft.
The Americans don’t live 10 feet from Gaza.
The draft was dropped while the Soviet Union still had Atomic bombs on ICBMs pointed at NYC and LA.
Oh, come on. You can’t compare the two!
If nuclear war broke out, which was a constant threat, there would hardly be time to institute a draft. America was well prepared with an all-volunteer army to match the mighty USSR on the battlefield in Europe, the high seas and around the world.
It is ridiculous to compare the two situations.
Indeed. The nuclear threat to the US, as well as the threat of the Soviet army quickly overrunning Europe, which the US was sworn to protect under its NATO obligations, was far higher and more dangerous than the Arab threat to Israel.
Either you are joking, unable to admit you’re wrong, or you don’t understand what it is like to live with terrorists among you. You cannot seriously compare living under the frequent threat of stabbings, rammings, bombings, suicide bombers, snipers and boulder throwers to living under the back-burner maybe of a nuclear war. Please.
You’re not following the point of contention. An all-volunteer army versus an involuntary draft. The points you are raising don’t point to benefits of an involuntary draft over a volunteer army. America needed one of the largest armies in the universe to protect almost the entire continent of Europe and the entire free world against the threat of a nuclear armed superpower. It needed humongous amounts of armed manpower to accomplish that.
And it did so with an all-volunteer army.
I understand what you are saying but I believe that the conditions affect the willingness of citizens to volunteer. It is much easier to gather people living safely under a possible threat, than to gather the same amount of people as volunteers under the volatile conditions that exist on an always basis in Israel.
Joseph, America still has registration so it can draft people at any time. The fact that it can make do with an all-volunteer army is davka due to the nuclear deterrent. Just as Russia can wipe America off the map America can wipe Russia off the map. This kept the two countries from a hot war that could have occurred twice (during the Berlin Blockade and the Cuban missile crisis). Moreover, America has a huge pool of citizens almost its own continent and is at peace with both its neighbors. Israel has approximately the size and population of NJ with enemies on most of its borders.
The United States had over 200 million people as of 1973.
Israel today has fewer than five million non-Charedi Jews.
The idea that Israel can survive with a purely voluntary army is fantasy.
“And it did so with an all-volunteer army.”
That isn’t true. There was a draft throughout the 1950s after Korea and prior to Vietnam. This despite a population of 180 million as of 1960. It was only the population growth (with the baby boomers becoming old enough to volunteer for military service), the end of the Vietnam War, and the massive cuts in defense spending that accompanied the end of the Vietnam War that allowed the US to drop the draft in 1973.
By comparison, Israel today has fewer than five million non-Charedi Jews. The combined active duty armed forces of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran constitute two million people, and I would trust none of those countries! The idea that Israel can survive with a purely voluntary army is fantasy.
They’re surviving without Chareidim being drafted. Their will still be enough non-Chareidim for them to fully staff an army.
To the opening poster: Are you an actuary? I ask because all you have done is predict the size of population 10 years from now.
Huju, actually Israeli demographers have predicted that in the next generation or two the majority of Israelis will be Haredi or Dati Leumi. As of 2010 the Central Bureau of Statistics report breakdown according to self-identification was 8% Haredi, 12% as religious, 13% as traditional-religious, 25% as traditional and 42% as secular. The figures for the religious increase as the age group becomes lower. Moreover, over 30% of school children are enrolled in religious schools. Ten years, however, is an exaggeration. BTW, I used to work in the actuarial field.
To Avi K: If your numbers are correct, thank you. Now there can be an informed discussion.
Soooo …, 14 hours after Avi K. gives us an opportunity for an informed discussion, we all lose interest.
Soooo …, 48 hours after … still no informed discussion. Does that tell us something about Coffee-Room posters? Starting with me?
Yeah, I posted real stats and included citations from ICBS, the 2013 Pew Report, and another peer reviewed study, and came to a similar conclusion to Avi K, but since it doesn’t fit in with the original hypothesis of the original poster, there’s no engagement on it. Mai Nafka Mina?
This is great, however this must be used to 1) stop the draft of Torah learners 2) increase kollel stipends 3)increase child allowances and the like.
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