Socialist Democrat Zohran Mamdani, the party’s nominee for New York City mayor, is on track to easily win November’s election in a crowded field — but a new poll claims he would lose in a direct showdown with former Governor Andrew Cuomo.

The survey, conducted by Tulchin Research for the New York Apartment Association, found Mamdani leading a five-way race with 42% of the vote, trailed by Cuomo at 26%, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 17%, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 9%, and independent Jim Walden at 3%.

But in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, Cuomo surged ahead, with 52% to Mamdani’s 41%, suggesting nearly all of Sliwa, Adams, and Walden’s voters would gravitate toward the ex-governor. Against Adams alone, Mamdani held a narrow 45% to 42% lead.

Political operatives outside the campaigns quickly dismissed the findings.

“Looks like a fantasy poll commissioned by Andrew Cuomo,” said Democratic strategist Ken Frydman, adding: “If the election were held today, Cuomo would not beat Mamdani in a one-on-one race.”

Another veteran consultant, Sam Raskin of Slingshot Strategies, called the results “barely credible.” He noted that pollsters misjudged Mamdani’s strength in the Democratic primary, overstating Cuomo’s support while underestimating the progressive’s base among younger voters.

The apartment association poll leaned heavily toward older voters: 63% of respondents were over age 50, while just 37% were under 50. Analysts noted that Mamdani dominated the under-40 demographic during the primary, driving his upset win over Cuomo and others.

Tulchin’s memo on the poll emphasized that Cuomo “is currently leading Mamdani in a head-to-head matchup, with a broader and more diverse coalition,” while Mamdani’s support remains “limited to his progressive base.”

Despite polling in third, Sliwa has vowed to stay in the race. The longtime Guardian Angels founder and GOP nominee could outperform expectations due to his strong name recognition and favorable ballot placement, strategists say.

Adams, plagued by corruption scandals, is running as an independent after skipping the Democratic primary, but the poll shows him mired in single digits.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)