After all the votes have been counted and the final tally in, the decision makers and negotiators are working to launch coalition talks based on the assumption the presidential mandate will be given to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu by President Peres next week.
Following is a number of possible coalition possibilities.
NETANYAHUS PREFERENCE
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu 31
Yesh Atid 19 (50)
Shas 11 (61)
Kadima -2 (63)
Opposition:
Labor 15
Yahadut Hatorah 7 (22)
The Movement 6 (28)
Meretz 6 (34)
Arab parties 11 (45)
Bayit HaYehudi 12 (May go either way; opposition or coalition)
LAPIDS DREAM
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu 31
Yesh Atid 19 (50)
Bayit HaYehudi 12 (62)
The Movement 6 (68)
Kadima -2 (70)
Opposition:
Labor 15
Shas 11 (26)
Yahadut Hatorah 7 (33)
Meretz 6 (39)
Arab parties 11 (50)
SHARE THE BURDEN COALITION
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu 31
Yesh Atid 19 (50)
Bayit HaYehudi 12 (62)
The Movement 6 (68)
Kadima -2 (70)
Opposition:
Labor 15
Shas 11 (26)
Yahadut Hatorah 7 (33)
Meretz 6 (39)
Arab parties 11 (50)
JUMPSTART TALKS WITH THE PA
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu 31
Yesh Atid 19 (50)
Shas 11 (61)
The Movement 6 (67)
Kadima -2 (69)
Opposition:
Labor 15
Bayit HaYehudi 12 (27)
Yahadut Hatorah 7 (34)
Meretz 6 (40)
Arab parties 11 (51)
BROAD-BASED COALITION /STABILITY
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu 31
Yesh Atid 19 (50)
Bayit HaYehudi 12 (62)
Shas 11 (73)
Yahadut Hatorah 7 (80)
Kadima -2 (82)
Opposition:
Labor 15
Arab parties 11 (26)
Meretz 6 (32)
The Movement 6 (38)
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3 Responses
Based on what is appearing in the secular media, the rank and file of Likud/Beitenu will not be pleased with any coalition the fails to implement conscription of yeshiva students. Given that alienation of this constituency in the last election, which led to mass defections (a handful to Bayit Yehudi over security issues, but mostly to Yesh Atid over conscription) – Likud is unlikely to form any coalition that will fail to implement conscription of yeshiva students. Remember also that unless the kenesset affirmatively acts, the “default” is to being conscription of all yeshiva students at age 18 for three years into regular units with imprisonment for resistors.
I wonder why Netanyahu would prefer Shas and not UTJ in his coalition. Where does this info come from? Once he’s already bringing in the Charedim he would bring in UTJ with them, no?
#2 You need to review the years of Shas and UTJ in the coalitions. Shas is a GLOBAL party that works for a diverse constituents & more likely to compromise and vote with Bibi on settlement destructions & peace talks. UTJ prides themselves on being a party of Avrechim and only involves themselves with those needs.