4 Responses

1. After Bibi’s speech in Congress his numbers will go up. Can’t understand Yesh Atid’s mazel. They ruined everything before, the economy and relations with the Haredim.

2. These polls are so weird…
   Everyday something else

3. 1. But at whose expense will Likud’s numbers rise – if it takes votes away from allies it doesn’t help him. Indeed, if he takes too many votes away from Lieberman causing him to fall below the threashold, it could cost Likud the election.

   2. Yesh Atid appeals to the large number of Israelis who see the hareidim as the principle threat to the existence of the medinah. With the possible exception of Yisrael Beiteinu, no other party is willing to state clearly they will oppose changing the law that will result in mass arrests of hareidim and closing down many yeshivos. To many Israelis, that’s a feature, not a flaw.

   3. THe three likely results are: 1) a Right-Hareidi coalition; 2) a Left-Hareidi coalition including the Arabs; a Left-Right coalition. THe big factor will be which parties will agree to decriminalize draft refusal, since is the “make or break” issue for Shas and Yahadut ha-Torah, and probably for Yachad. If the Right won’t compromise, the Left will have a chance. Otherwise they are stuck with a Likud-Labor coalition.

4. 3.6 percent is a very significant margin of error in these circumstances. Bear in mind the threshold is 3.25 percent. An error of 3.6 percent would amount to 4 mandates. As a result the small swings between Labor and Likud may be due to sampling error only. In assessing small parties these polls are of questionable usefulness. You really do not know if Yahadut Hatorah will get say 6 or 8 seats, or if Yachad will pass the threshold.