Virulently anti-Israel New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has catapulted into serious contention against former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the Democratic nomination for NYC mayor, slicing Cuomo’s once-commanding lead to single digits, according to a new PIX11/Emerson College poll.

The ranked-choice voting simulation shows Cuomo narrowly edging out Mamdani 54.4% to 45.6% after ten rounds of vote redistribution. The result marks a dramatic shift from March, when Cuomo held a 28-point lead over Mamdani in the same pollster’s survey.

“With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani’s momentum,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Cuomo, who is seeking a political comeback at 67 after resigning from the governorship in disgrace, starts strong in the simulation with 35% of first-choice support. Mamdani, 33, trails at 23%, followed by City Comptroller Brad Lander (11%), former Comptroller Scott Stringer (9%), Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (8%), and Brooklyn State Senator Zellnor Myrie (5%).

But as lesser-known candidates are eliminated in the ranked-choice process, Mamdani gains ground — largely by collecting second-choice votes from progressive-leaning voters. Under New York City’s voting system, voters can rank up to five candidates. If no one secures a majority in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to remaining contenders based on voter preferences. The process repeats until a candidate surpasses 50%.

Mamdani’s strategic alliances on the left appear to be paying off. A member of the Democratic Socialists of America and the Working Families Party’s endorsed slate, Mamdani has urged supporters to back Adams and others in an effort to qualify them for matching funds — an unusual show of solidarity that reflects the progressive bloc’s intent to stop Cuomo’s comeback.

In the general election matchup, Cuomo maintains a broader appeal across party lines. He polls at 44% support citywide, with Republican Curtis Sliwa at 13%, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (running as an independent) at 10%, and independent candidate Jim Walden at 7%. Mamdani, by contrast, draws 35% support in a general election scenario, with Adams and Sliwa splitting a larger share of the anti-left vote.

Cuomo’s campaign was quick to dismiss the Emerson results. “This is an outlier,” said Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi. “The facts across the board remain the same — Andrew Cuomo is the consistent and overwhelming frontrunner in this race.”

But Mamdani’s camp sees things differently. “Andrew Cuomo has hit his ceiling, while we’re nowhere near ours,” a Mamdani spokesperson said, touting the candidate’s 23-point rise in just two months.

The poll also offers a window into broader voter sentiment. Just 3.5% of Democratic voters remain undecided, signaling a potentially locked-in electorate ahead of the June 24 primary. Early voting begins June 14.

Meanwhile, citywide attitudes reflect deep dissatisfaction. Forty-nine percent of voters say their family’s financial situation has worsened over the past year, and only 16% report any improvement. Sixty-one percent of voters support involuntary hospitalization for mentally ill individuals unable to care for themselves — a nod to growing public safety concerns.

In foreign policy matters, only 33% of voters believe a pro-Israel stance is important for the next mayor, compared to 46% who do not, underscoring a generational and ideological shift in the Democratic base.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)