If elections were held in Israel today, the parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government would only garner 48 seats—far below the 60-seat majority needed to form a coalition, according to a new Channel 12 poll.
Conversely, a bloc led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, comprising opposition parties including his newly registered party, would secure a commanding 72 seats. The poll indicates that without including Arab-majority parties Hadash Ta’al or Ra’am, the opposition bloc would still reach 62 seats, surpassing the threshold for forming a government.
The timing of the poll comes amid political turbulence, notably after the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) faction, led by the spiritual head of Degel Hatorah, instructed their MKs to introduce legislation to dissolve the Knesset. This move was prompted by the coalition’s failure to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from military service.
According to the poll, the two largest parties in the Knesset would be Bennett’s party with 24 seats and Likud led by Netanyahu with 22 seats. The remaining seats would be distributed as follows: Democratic Union 12, Shas 10, Yisrael Beytenu 10, Yesh Atid 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, UTJ 8, National Unity 7, Hadash-Ta’al 5, and Ra’am 5.
The Religious Zionism and Balad parties would not cross the electoral threshold in this scenario.
Regarding UTJ’s threats to dissolve the coalition over IDF conscription laws, the poll also queried public opinion on whether ultra-Orthodox parties should be part of future governments. Fifty-five percent of respondents said they would prefer they not be included, while 33% supported their participation, and 12% were undecided.
(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)
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7 Responses
Firstly never trust an Israeli poll. Netanyahu is always the projected loser in them. Secondly a Bennet government with the makeup mentioned here would be an absolute disaster for the Chareidi world. They will wish like anything they kept Netanyahu. Thirdly both Netanyahu and Bennet will do whatever it takes to form a government. If the Chariedim brought down his government, he no longer has any obligation to them and can easily form a government with Ganz or Leiberman conditioned on drafting Chariedim. On the flip side if Bennet will need the Chareidim and Arabs to form a coalition he will quickly drop his efforts and talk to draft Yeshiva Bochurim.
The poll alone, hopefully!! would serve to ruffle Netanyahu’s feathers! My gut tells me he’s toast! He started up with the Torah and the Torah came to avenge its kavod. It’s a shame! The country does not need this now! It’s at war! It needs stability but the crazy Israelis don’t understand that.
1. Bibi was a big failure during this term. Most democracies punish failures. Given the strength of non-socialist “moderate” parties, it might be a good thing for Bibi to retire.
2. The numbers are very soft. Polling in Israeli is especially problematic, dur to the proportional system as well as many people with limited experience in democratic systems who feel they need to tell the pollster “the right answer”.
>>> My gut tells me he’s toast! He started up with the Torah and the Torah came to avenge its kavod.
There would have been a lot of other people for the Torah to come to avenge its kavod on before Netanyahu. Some of whom will probably be a lot better off politicly because they did so. Bennet, unlike Netanyhu, openly talks about how he want to draft Yeshiva and says he will actively work towards that goal. Can you show me where your boich sees the Torah came to avenge its kavod on Bennet?
Lieberman said today that he will make sure every bochur is drafted in the coming government. But nothing to be concerned of knowing that all these Chardei talks of bringing down the government are only to increase pressure on Bibi but will never happen in reality. The problem is that Bibi knows this and isn’t taking the Chareidi threats serious.
The poll is fake just as the media. Benet will not pass and Smotrich will have 10 seats. It’s just more fake. Why does ywn even quote this.
The opposition may be projected to win 72 seats – but not a “Bennet-led coalition”. There is no way that Hadash-Ta’al joins – or is asked to join – any government, period. Even Ra’am is a stretch – meaning that the 62 number is more realistic.
There’s also the possibility of some members of the current coalition would join – there are elements of the Likud, in particular, that would be happy to sit in such a government rather than in the opposition – particularly if it means that the government would not include Yair Golan’s party (now called “Hademokratim” – the product of the merger of Labor and Meretz), and, possibly, Lapid’s. Much of the Likud would be fine sitting with Ganz, Lieberman, and Bennet in a government – and depending on the number of Likud members who would join, such a coalition could be formed.
We all need to wait and see – but one pretty clear point is that it’s unlikely that the Chareidi parties will be part of the next coalition. I happen to think this is a good thing, but it makes their decision to bring down this government a textbook example of cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.
an Israeli Yid