April 21, 2013 1:19 pm at 1:19 pm #609101
Each day, a bakery produces the amount of bread that it expects people will buy that day.
Throughout the day, people come in, one at a time, to buy a loaf of bread. Each person sees an entire shelf full of bread. They think, “Bread crisis! Bal tashchis! There is so much bread and no one to eat it!”
However, the baker only produces as much bread as he knows will be sold. The only reason it looks like there is more, is that all the bread is produced and displayed at one point in time. Only occasionally do one or two people ever see the empty shelves, or there is a loaf left over.
This is the source of the shidduch crisis panic. The girls all think they are ready to get married when they finish seminary, but the boys enter the shidduch system one at a time, after yeshiva or college or whenever. Over time, nearly all girls will get taken, but if you take a snapshot at one particular moment, it looks like there are way more girls than boys.
What do you think?April 21, 2013 1:36 pm at 1:36 pm #1142292
What do you think?
There are so many fallacies in this analogy, I hardly know where to begin.
Let’s start with one factual mistake. One word: freezer.April 21, 2013 1:40 pm at 1:40 pm #1142293147Participant
Plenty bread at end of day given to charities etc. Clearly we are not giving any girl [=Bas Yisroel] to any charity, so dispell your bread theory as quickly as you concocted your bread theory.
This is an excellent time to trash out all of your bread as we are eagerly making our final preparations for Pesach Sheni.April 21, 2013 1:59 pm at 1:59 pm #1142294
147, I’ll take your chometz. I’m not makpid on chometz on Preach Sheini.April 21, 2013 2:17 pm at 2:17 pm #1142295
Firstly, the Torah says this, not me. Look at Rashi in Shemos Perek Beis. Yisro tells his daughters to invite Moshe Rabbeinu in, ???? ?? ????? ???. Rashi says, that he might marry one of you, since ??? ?? ????.
Secondly, the freezer only applies to a subset of boys, not all yeshivos. OTOH, all girls from all seminaries enter shidduchim at 18/19 the latest.
Thirdly, in this analogy, we’re talking about a hypothetical perfect Baker, Who runs the “bakery” that feeds the world.
And now I have something to do today in between homework. 🙂April 21, 2013 2:25 pm at 2:25 pm #1142296SaysMeMember
”all girls from all seminaries enter shidduchim at 18/19 the latest.”
not true. Yes a larger subset than the amount of boys doing the freezer, but not close to all.April 21, 2013 2:33 pm at 2:33 pm #1142297
SaysMe: I think it’s pretty much all. At least all of my friends. Maybe 1/5 girls says they’re not really in shidduchim, but if someone comes up who sounds really good, they’re willing to date, because they’re worried about saying no to the right one.April 21, 2013 2:39 pm at 2:39 pm #1142298yetelzMember
Torah613: the freezer applies to most boys, since most chareidi boys in america go to lakewood.April 21, 2013 2:50 pm at 2:50 pm #1142299
Secondly, the freezer only applies to a subset of boys, not all yeshivos.
A large majority. Far from your claim of “one at a time”. And all bochurim have set zemanim. Don’t respond that there’s individual choice, because that’s the same for girls, as SaysMe says.
Thirdly, in this analogy, we’re talking about a hypothetical perfect Baker, Who runs the “bakery” that feeds the world.
You’re using circular reasoning. You’re saying that your analogy must be correct because the argument it supports is correct.
Of course He’s perfect, the question is which challenges He’s given us.April 21, 2013 2:53 pm at 2:53 pm #1142300SaysMeMember
but anyhow, i liked your mashal 🙂April 21, 2013 2:57 pm at 2:57 pm #1142301akupermaParticipant
In virtually all cultures, girls are ready to marry (i.e. to start producing children) at a much earlier age than the boys are ready to support the family. It’s a function of biology as much as anything else, and since we can’t criticize the one who did the design, this isn’t an issue to debate (as we could propose causing female not to reach puberty until their mid-20s).
The norm is virtually all human cultures is that brides are younger than their husbands, often by many years. That some people have trouble with this idea is the problem.April 21, 2013 3:01 pm at 3:01 pm #1142302
That some people have trouble with this idea is the problem.
No, the resulting mismatched numbers, leaving many girls without shidduchim, l”a, is the problem.April 21, 2013 3:08 pm at 3:08 pm #1142303
Torah613Torah, let me offer my version of your analogy.
Say a hundred people walk into a bakery, each to buy a loaf of bread, but find only ninety loaves on the shelf. Will they panic?
Well, that depends. If the baker is still there, has ample supplies, and will profit enough to make it worth his while to bake an additional ten loaves (and the customers know this) then they will not panic.
If they have seen in the past that he won’t bake any more than his allotment, or don’t know, they might panic.
Obviously, the people panicking are not confident that His plan is to have a shidduch for everyone.April 21, 2013 3:10 pm at 3:10 pm #1142304yetelzMember
it used to be men could marry two wives, so even though men marrying younger girls resulted in more girls than boys, since some boys took two wives things evened out. now (for a long time by european jews and more recently for sefardic jews) that men cant have two wives we need to figure out what to do about their being extra girls in the shidduch market. either boys gotta marry younger, closer to the age girl marry or (harder and less likely) we go back to the old system where some guys take two wives.April 21, 2013 3:20 pm at 3:20 pm #1142305
yetelz: “Most” but not all. Percentagewise, as SaysMe pointed out, more girls are in the market at any one time than boys are entering. Maybe the numbers even out at the end of every zman a bit, but that’s temporary.
I am arguing that this is a Bitachon challenge, rather than a true numbers problem, as the shidduch crisis crazies insist.
SaysMe: Thank you 🙂
akuperma: there used to be a very high mortality rate in childbirth as well.
DaasYochid: Exactly, if they trust that Hashem knows what He is doing, they will not panic. They will know that the right one will come at the right time. Maybe there will be whole wheat instead, maybe they will buy cookies, maybe someone will deliver from another bakery. But if Hashem wants them to have bread, they will have bread. (I’m going by your analogy where men are bread)
yetelz: For thousands of years, men have had only one wife, but there was a high mortality rate.April 21, 2013 3:24 pm at 3:24 pm #1142306April 21, 2013 3:32 pm at 3:32 pm #1142307
Thanks DY. I bumped the first thread you linked for yetelz’s convenience.April 21, 2013 4:16 pm at 4:16 pm #1142308
I thought DY meant that in the bakery moshol, people can buy bread at the end of the day and put it in their freezer to keep fresh. So too, men should sign up wives to put in storage for when they get tired of their first one or she gets stale.April 21, 2013 5:11 pm at 5:11 pm #1142309
That’s why it’s not a good moshol. The boys go in the freezer before they go on the market, and bread goes in the freezer after it’s on the market.April 21, 2013 5:28 pm at 5:28 pm #1142310
DY: Read my post above. It has nothing to do with when they go into the freezer. Not every boy leaves the freezer at the same age, they spend different amounts of time in EY beforehand – it’s much more diverse than what girls do, however you look at it.April 21, 2013 5:37 pm at 5:37 pm #1142311
The analogy ti a bakery to the shidduch scene is about as logical as to the self entitlement many of these mediocre learning boys who have no business being in kollel feel is their right.
Just spend some time in pizza shops in Lakewood on a typical weekday for empirical proof.
We are our own worst enemies.April 21, 2013 5:48 pm at 5:48 pm #1142312
Just spend some time in pizza shops in Lakewood on a typical weekday
Yes! The pizza theory of the shidduch crisis!
Girls are too “deep” because the eat too much pizza and then the shallow boys don’t want to marry them. Because shallow and deep don’t mix.April 21, 2013 5:54 pm at 5:54 pm #1142313
Ploni: I do not get what you’re saying at all.
Are you saying that the Torah’s analogy is ridiculous?
(i just finished 1/4 sections of my homework.)April 21, 2013 5:57 pm at 5:57 pm #1142314
You have totally missed my point with your condescending and sarcastic comment.
The so called shidduch crisis is self created.
Does anyone out there ever hear if a shidduch crisis situation existed in pre war Europe?
What about the Sephardic community?April 21, 2013 5:59 pm at 5:59 pm #1142315
I also have the chicken wings theory of the shidduch crisis.
Let’s see if y’all can figure it out.April 21, 2013 6:00 pm at 6:00 pm #1142316
Ploni, that’s exactly what I’m saying. That this so-called “crisis” is a matter of perception.
Ploni, do you agree that the shidduch crisis is self-created?
if so, do you agree that most girls and boys will get married?
If so, my analogy would hold, wouldn’t it?April 21, 2013 6:06 pm at 6:06 pm #1142317
What does the comparison of a wife to bread have to do with a bakery?
You can go out and buy flour and bake as much bread as you want. There were no bakeries in Yisro’s timeApril 21, 2013 6:07 pm at 6:07 pm #1142318
Chicken wings theory: Everyone wants to marry someone who eats chicken wings with a fork and knife, but everyone wants to themselves eat it with their hands.
So too, everyone wants to marry the same boys, but themselves go to college and work.
Or, why are there more chicken wings than chicken pulkas in the store at any given time? Because the chicken wings are smaller, and the pulkas are bigger, and so it looks like there’s more chicken wings but really every chicken has the 2 wings and 2 pulkas.April 21, 2013 6:11 pm at 6:11 pm #1142319
Ploni: This is my mashal, cliffsnotes style:
Baker – Hashem
Bakery – world
Bread – women
Buyers – men
Ratio of buyers to bread is stable. It just doesn’t look like that if you come in the middle of the day, it looks like there’s way more bread than buyers.April 21, 2013 6:13 pm at 6:13 pm #1142320
Torah: not bad. I had nothing in mind, but I’ll take the first one if i have to choose.
Or, why are there more chicken wings than chicken pulkas in the store at any given time? Because the chicken wings are smaller, and the pulkas are bigger, and so it looks like there’s more chicken wings but really every chicken has the 2 wings and 2 pulkas.
So you’re saying it looks like there are more girls because they are fat?April 21, 2013 6:23 pm at 6:23 pm #1142321
It has been mentioned in previous threads that for the most part a girl’s choices are at their maximum when she first starts dating whereas a boy’s choices do not.
Your main point that the same amount of males and females might be of the same age is not what drives the shidduch process.
It is more complex than that.
Just daven to Hashem that you meet your bashert at the right time and that you make the right decision.April 21, 2013 6:26 pm at 6:26 pm #1142322
No, it looks like more girls because they are smaller and packaged differently.
That’s why, in that particular analogy, I specifically made the pulkas bigger.April 21, 2013 6:29 pm at 6:29 pm #1142323
Oh. So the problem is that girls aren’t fat enough?
yah, this goes right into a theory I once had. http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/the-real-cause-of-weight-gainApril 21, 2013 6:30 pm at 6:30 pm #1142324
Ploni: If you want to debate on this thread, you need to address the points made on this thread.
Thank you for your advice. I am sure Hashem will send me, and all people looking for the right person for the right reasons, the right one at the right time. I hope and pray it should be soon, for everyone. And meanwhile, we have to serve Hashem with what we have, and not spend our lives worrying about never getting married.April 21, 2013 6:35 pm at 6:35 pm #1142325
The truth is that my real theory for the shidduch crisis is called the creepy theory.
See, there are really the same number of men and women. But some of the men are creepy, and we take them out of the pool leaving more women than men. And anyone who has ever been to a frum singles event knows precisely what I am talking about.April 21, 2013 6:36 pm at 6:36 pm #1142326
So you’re saying it looks like there are more girls because they are fat?
kol (literally)April 21, 2013 6:39 pm at 6:39 pm #1142327
Ratio of buyers to bread is stable. It just doesn’t look like that if you come in the middle of the day, it looks like there’s way more bread than buyers.
The problem is that it looks that way at the end of the day too.April 21, 2013 6:43 pm at 6:43 pm #1142328
Fat is irrelevant to my analogy.
The creepy theory is definitely true for online dating websites.
OK, so the last few buyers tend to be people the baker doesn’t want to let into the store, even though the bread’s the same.April 21, 2013 6:50 pm at 6:50 pm #1142329
I did address the main point of this thread and at this point I will paull back and allow you and Popa to carry on your comedy routine on a very serious subject.April 21, 2013 6:51 pm at 6:51 pm #1142330
Fat is irrelevant to my analogy.
Of course it is relevant. Because the baker makes one of his breads with raisins even though nobody likes it because there’s a bubby who comes in and buys it. One time the other breads were jealous and grabbed some of the raisins when the baker wasn’t looking, but the bubby still only bought one loaf.April 21, 2013 6:55 pm at 6:55 pm #1142331
I know plenty of creepy married guys.April 21, 2013 6:56 pm at 6:56 pm #1142332
I know plenty of creepy married guys.
which proves my point.April 21, 2013 7:07 pm at 7:07 pm #1142333
Ploni: Sorry, but this is not a very serious subject, imo.
Popa: I was referring to the chicken wings analogy. So yes, that is relevant. No, I don’t think it is the reason because there is never only one Bubby.
DaasYochid: hmmmApril 21, 2013 8:35 pm at 8:35 pm #1142334
which proves my point.
??April 21, 2013 8:39 pm at 8:39 pm #1142335
Anyhow, I changed my mind – it’s a good analogy. If you eat the bread you get dogitis. (See T613’s kitzur thread and popa’s isru chag thread.)April 22, 2013 9:42 pm at 9:42 pm #1142336apushatayidParticipant
You didnt tell us if this baker offers only white bread, or there is also ample supply of rye, pumpernickel, multi grain or spelt for those who want it? Of course there are those who dont even want bread, and prefer kaiser rolls or bagels perhaps french bread. Is this all available in this bakery of bakeries?April 22, 2013 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm #1142337
Apushatayid, yes that is another fallacy in this moshol.April 23, 2013 3:44 am at 3:44 am #1142338
apushatayid: “Bread” is all-inclusive. But you’re right, there are different types of bread, for every taste.
DaasYochid, do you mean ‘apparent inconsistency that is certain to be easily resolved’? 🙂April 23, 2013 4:00 am at 4:00 am #1142339
No, I meant that it’s not as simple as one random loaf per person.
Bottom line: the panicking is a lack of bitachon. The hishtadlus to even the numbers is not.April 23, 2013 4:24 am at 4:24 am #1142340This name is already takenParticipant
Popa- how about the apples and oranges theory, do you know that one?
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