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HI! I dont want to hear from this doctor and that scientist about how we still have to be shut away because they know best, I just want to know FACTS….. are there still people getting sick with corona to the point that they need hospitalization/oxygen etc. because as far as I know hatzala hasn’t gotten any calls in the past few weeks so….. maybe ITS OVER!!!!!
I am not sure if you know who Yogi Berra was but his saying was “it aint over until its over”. While the intial phase with all its terrible toll may be over, the chance of it returning is possible.
Yogi Berra expression is a loser clique
lot112: The chance of its return will remain the case for years to come.
A vaccine may be years, or longer, away.
“are there still people getting sick with corona to the point that they need hospitalization/oxygen etc.”
Yes
(Though I am a doctor so not sure you want to hear from me, particularly as it doesn’t fir your predetermined conclusion. The title of your thread says “in the frum world” but the text of the question does not. I have not seen frum pts with corona requiring hospitalization recently)
Dear Bocher,
I went out into the street and met a coronavirus. (I always take my transmission electron microscope with me.) I asked are you frum? It responded very much so, and will only reside among like minded people. I left the street and met another one. Are you frum? No, I am of the derech.Just kidding. Viruses do not work that way.
B from L, there just about ZERO new cases in the frum area for the past two weeks, and the antibody testing is coming back at around 75%, Sorry Dr D and Rabbi B
It depends if you want to here anecdotal or empirical evidence. Anecdotally, Hatzoloh members have been quoted as saying that they aren’t transporting any COViD patients to the hospital anymore. Empirically, the number of those tested positive in zipcodes such as Monsey are continuing to go up, albeit at a very low rate. On the other hand, the Nichum Aveilim list from Misaskim looks pretty normal.
Based on the responses I assume the “frum world” refers to New York city with a potential inclusion of Monsey and lakewood.
But I assume your question is just theoretical, because even if the virus has compelety stopped spreading in our communuties, that shouldn’t be the only factor in deciding on how to re-open or whether we can be careless now. We don’t know how long our immunity will last. Elderly people who wre self isolated the past few months aren’t immune to the virus. To figure out all these factors you will need scientists and doctors to give their expertise.
Where did you get your numbers from?
A clear majority of the American frum world live in the NY Metro area.
@schnitz from Mt Sinai Covid plasma testing program and Rockland county Board of Health,
And BTW YOUR figures are WRONG Rockland has not posted any new cases from 10952 since May 2nd, so I don’t know where you made up that story, all new cases in Rockland are from Clarkstown or HaverstrawDear Bocher,
I apologize for my joke missing your point. Maybe your theory is true. Maybe. The situation is more serious than that. A lot has reopened in the Northeast. Yeshivos and shuls returning to normal seems like a bad idea. What guidelines should they use? Good question. Answer: One based on solid science, not a maybe.
(P. S. If someone dies through negligence Hashem will not be “understanding’.)“Seems like a bad idea” works for you but someone else needs solid science?
I can’t tell if your insistance on solid science (across different threads) is mostly about a mistrust of religious authority and a need to discount their ability to pasken science matters through consultation, or do you really believe there is a real thing called solid science? Cuz many medical and science experts have differing opinions, and anything solid regarding the covid19 will take months or years. Should we wait?הא גופא the problem is that the elderly will not understand. How many older people do you know that will gladly miss tfillah btzibbur when everyone younger than them are not. There are so many factors that should go into reopening, including psychological factors that people here think that we can ignore. (For the record, I personally am pro reopening – I will still listen to whatever the experts say because I know that I don’t know everything)
Bocher………………………..
You are a child with limited experience and horizons.Not all of the world’s frum community lives where Hatzala operates.
There are frum people who have recently contracted Covid-19 and are hospitalized. My nephew’s Father in-law is one. BUT he lives in southern Florida and the county EMS transported him to the hospital. He was hospitalized Motzei Shabbos, but is stable and on oxygen, but not a ventilator.I lost my access to LoHud but I did see that on May 4th, Monsey had 1,478 cases (Daily Voice). As of May 22nd, there are 1,628 cases.
The Mt Sinai data is publicly available?
Dear Syag,
The key word here is ‘normal’. Shuls could reopen in a creative way. To get back to pre-covid, will take solid science or zero cases geographically.New positives could be old positives. I know people who have tested positive for COVID 19 more than 6 weeks after recovering.
The one that also took an anti-body test also tested positive for anti-bodies. The virus can show up in tests when there is no chance of transmission.
Additionally, kids barely pass on the virus, even when infected, which is a lot less often than adults. So keeping schools shut – which will invariably mean day-camps – makes very little sense if there are no new real cases in a community. No matter what Trump haters say, he has science on his side when it comes to schools.
As an aside, NYC could have already met the states’s criteria to reopen phase one, if it made the planned hospital ship (IIRC in Red Hood) operational.
Correction: it was a field hospital at Brooklyn Cruise Terminal, not a ship.
Dear Mammele,
I came across a younger person who got sick (no taste or smell, 3 days fever, coughing, etc.) in May. It seems to be true that most of us are no longer contagious. But the chance that right now no one in Lakewood is contagious is about zero.
There is reason to suggest that kids do not get sick from other kids. That does not help the teacher. Camps have younger staff, so it may work.@Bocher
I don;t care what you believe. I am not a trained lawyer. I am an adult with a Juris Doctor Degree who has passed and belongs to the MA, CT, NY and FL bars.What I post here in the CR are not legal arguments, this is not a court of law and many here hold more with halacha than the laws of civil government.
That said, the people who are important to believe in my legal acumen are my clients who pay those large legal fees that enable me to support my family, provide employment to others, be a baal tzedaka and giove back to the greater community. The opinion of some bocher in a little southern NJ town is not very important. I don’t practice law in NJ and expect I never will.
Your comment is laughable, because you state the “only frum people we know” and I, a member of the CR gave an example of a known frum person who recently was hospitalized with Covid-19.
So, young man, still wet behind the ears, speak for yourself, not for the whole group which includes me.
Obviously, none of you is considering what’s going on in Israel. Despite the almost 100% of “back to normal” activities, there have been a number of new cases: in Jerusalem, Bnei Braq, Beit Shemesh & Rehovot. And as predicted, most are related to schools opening. Hundreds of children, teachers & their families are either sick with obvious symptoms or in quarantine. I’m not a doctor, nor am I a layer as the famed CTlawyer is, but as a mother & grandmother, I don’t think the schools should have been virtually the first thing to be opened. A number of families I know are still not sending their children & in their position, I’d do the same.
Remember, often children are carriers & don’t display symptoms. And here in Beit Shemesh, I’d say about 50-70% of the people I see (mainly frum men) are not wearing masks. The stores aren’t abiding by their obligations either. So to answer the original question, I say… in Israel, absolutely.
Stay well, chag sameach, Shabbat shalom, a guten yom tov & a guten shabbos.
Dear Bocher,
To say that exactly zero people in any affected community are currently contagious is wishful thinking. The question is at what point is it wise to reopen. I know of young people who had symptoms or were exposed and did not quarantine.@Bocher Bully
My objection to your statement is the word WE, you don’t speak for the members/users of the Coffee Room.
I write about a frum man who tested positive Motzei Shabbos who didn’t use Hatzala. Today I received news that a friend in Kew Garden Hills was taken to the hospital Monday with COVID-19…Is Queens in the spehere of your self imposed ghetto?Speak for your self, you don’t have permission to speak for the rest of us. I object and if even only one CR member/user objects you can’t say we.
NO, I don’t work for the media, I own my own firm. I work to support my family
I just found online that Lakewood is averaging ten cases a day.
To the OP: I thought carona was the Spanish word for automobile.
Dear Huju,
I have noticed some of those in the frum world today.This weeks NYS test numbers are less then 1% tested positive and that the community at large, not just frum
Dear Common,
That is good news. It still correlates to 75,000 more infected people than a year ago.Dear N0M,
The total number of new cases in NYS this WEEK and that is what I am talking about is 3108.
Make a note to yourself that after you leave yeshiva not to become a CPA, numbers is not your thing1. Yes Covid 19 is still around doesnt discriminate between frum or not frum etc.
2. There is no guarantee as this is still largely unknown even Drs are learning new things daily. That someone who had it once cant have it again.
3. It affects younger as well as older population however due to maybe older people’s immune system seems to have more fatalities. I am more concerned going into a hospital becoming a statistic then whatever else they say.
4. Younger children have worldwide but not common at present bh who have gotten it bad it has in some cases become fatal.
Yes we have to have Bitachon and sisyata dishnaya but we cant very reckless. Become educated and follow the health news. Particular attention to Israel if you dont trust your own country’s.
@ Neril, why don’t you move to a ranch in Wyoming, some counties there have zero cases. or better yet to Papua New Guiana, no cases there.
Sorry Chicken Little the sky is not fallingDear Common,
I am very thankful that I am no longer in yeshiva. I still have no need for a career, but thank you for the tip. The math is correct. Unless NYC means only BP. You seem to be petrified by the fact that coronavirus has not been eliminated yet.YES,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Thee is still Corona Virus in the Frum World.
This past Friday, our eldest daughter tested positive.
Three weeks ago she flew to and from Los Angeles on business (against our advice).
She was there less than 48 hours, wore masks, used sanitzers and tried to avoid being close to people. BUT so many of the people were not wearing masks.B”H she appears to have a mild case, but the long term after affects are unknown.
Keep your guard up…..we are in for many more cases@CTL,
You just proved my point, you and your daughter live OUTSIDE the main frum population, she went on a business trip OUTSIDE the frum area, she got exposed OUTSIDE the frum area.
So sorry to take the wind out of your sails the frum areas in NY/ NJ are not experiencing a new wave.I have been to Monsey, BP, Flatbush, Williamsburg, Lakewood and Sullivan County in the past month and life has returned to normal with minimal social distancing , in fact outside the frum areas in NY the protests had minimal social distancing, yet no spike. In fact there are 500% more people injured from car crashes this month in NY/NJ then were ill with Covid 19.
If you would bring proof in a court of law that one isolated case that occurred outside main frum area is proof that the frum community is experiencing a new wave you would be laughed out of the court.3 weeks is outside of the range. Infection shows up 2-14 days after exposure (with 2-5 being the norm if i recall correctly). Where has she been these last 2 weeks?
And either way, glad it was mild. Refuah shlaimah@syag
Our local health authorities have been telling us that 3 weeks is a more realistic time frame than the previously used 14 days, Especially in the 15-40 year old group. She may have been able to be tested and confirmed earlier but not having a raised temperature, she was not a priority for testing.She self isolated upon return, her husband has been at his parents and her kids have been with us (and all our other grandchildren) since March 12.
@CommonSaychel
Please don’t make assumptions…………………
This daughter lives in a house in Kew Garden Hills, works mostly from home (pre Covid 19) coming to our CT office about once a week, She handles our client cases in NY Surrogates Court. Her husband heads our NY office and handles contract law.
So she flew from a frum area in NYC to LA (which does have frum people) and return.
None of the family living here in small town CT has contracted the virus.
I”YH she will recover quickly. We have made no contact delivery of food and all other needs to her.This is why we isolated ALL of our grandchildren and great nieces and Nephews here back in March and they will stay for the foreseeable future. We don;t expect to allow any to return to school/yeshiva/college in person this fall. It will be on-line learning, the older ones teaching the younger ones and Mrs. CTL and I teaching the older ones. Not quite the ‘one room schoolhouse’ as we have multiple learning spaces.
A month ago we were reading almost daily hespeds about so many rabbonim and askanim dying from COVID and now you guys are all declaring “life is back to normal” etc. I hope you are right but fear that come this fall/winter we will be again at risk if prudent behaviors are allowed to lapse. If you think shutting down summer camps poses a hardship on some frum families, wait and see what happens if the schools are again forced to shut down and shift over to Zoom classes because the recommendations of the public health professionals were ignored
@Godol Life has been back to normal for the past 2 months in most of the frum world, yet where is the spike? why wait till the fall? why no spike now?
is this Chicken Little and the sky s falling?Dear Common,
The sky has not fallen every time someone mentions that the virus is not yet eradicated. So, why do you come out with a whole protect our sky campaign every time?Older people are doing pre cautions shuls are not open like before. And younger people recover quickly. So yeah as long as the older population stays safe and it seems they have more sense then the younger generation in any case. As they are now more aware. Bh the numbers of frum world fatalities seems to have fallen.
It’s like we’re reliving early March. We could have made the same points then – sure the news media is talking about people getting sick and dying in China, Italy and Spain, but from my window in Brooklyn I don’t see anybody getting sick. In fact, we’re finding out that the virus was in New York, although not yet spreading out of control. It seems that some people are more contagious than others. So maybe that one person who flies from LA doesn’t infect anyone else, and maybe we’ve gone a few weeks with low levels of transmission, but as long as anyone from a state experiencing a surge can come to New York, it’s way too early to declare victory. You would think we’d be wiser with the benefit of hindsight, but evidently not. Acting like we’re somehow invincible because no you know is sick right now, or deluding ourselves into thinking the frum community is an insular herd such that we can have immunity while rest of society gets sick, only increases the chances that we’ll be forced to relive the trauma of March and April. If it comes back (and scientists say when not if), we won’t know it until after it’s spreading. Today could be a critical day, or maybe next week or next month, but we won’t know until a few weeks later. Do your parents and grandparents a favor and act like you care if they live.
The question is whether we have herd immunity already. Although the percentage of Frum Yidden with anti-bodies is not high enough for us to be considered immune at this point, T-cells may show the bigger picture. 50% of blood samples taken between 2015-2018 had memory T-cells that could have protected the person from COVID-19!
This from the WSJ:
“ This seems especially probable since scientists are now discovering that many asymptomatic or mild cases don’t develop Covid-19-specific antibodies.
One reason is that some people have underlying T-cell immunity from past coronaviruses that can help them vanquish the novel virus without developing antibodies. Several studies have found that even people who were never infected with Covid-19 nonetheless have “memory” T-cells—the immune system’s fighters—from past coronavirus infections, which attack the new virus. A La Jolla Institute for Immunology team has detected residual T-cells in about half of blood samples collected between 2015 and 2018.”
The article first discusses different strains and is a good read.
Cuomo is far from a magician IMHO. NY’s lack of a resurgence is not because of his careful opening (coupled with mass protests). On the contrary, NY, and especially NYC, has likely reached herd immunity because of closing down so late in the virus’s spread. (That’s why states and Israel are seeing a spike when reopening, as there’s no widespread immunity there.) The Frum community where it spread quickly and early is likely even more immune than the general population in the same neighborhood. This includes children that were exposed whether they caught it or not.
So my two cents: if you’re at risk be careful, especially if you’ve locked down early. However, if you stay within your own “exposed by Pesach Heimish circle” you’re relatively safe.
Now go tell Cuomo to open the summer camps…
Wishing everyone a safe and healthy summer!
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