April 2, 2009 10:29 pm at 10:29 pm #1150588
Great idea. Lets have the boys start dating at 25 and the girls starting at 19. With a standard six year age gap you will have between 15-20% of every all girls schools graduating class never getting married and never having children.April 2, 2009 10:44 pm at 10:44 pm #1150589
I have yet to see a single person disagree in a substantive way with the two obvious premises creating the numerical discrepancy.
And you have yet to prove your data in a substantive way. Why are you entitled to make comments which are facts until otherwise proven?
The argument from ignorance, also known as argumentum ad ignorantiam (“appeal to ignorance”), argument by lack of imagination, or negative evidence, is a logical fallacy in which it is claimed that a premise is true only because it has not been proven false, or is false only because it has not been proven true.
Oh, and please enlighten me where agunos come into play. I see that you were discussing them in a previous post. Did you actually mean an aguna, or did you try to use a word improperly because it would grab our attention?April 3, 2009 12:02 am at 12:02 am #1150591
The average age gap between spouses is considerably less than you incorrectly portray. More on the order of 1.5 years.April 3, 2009 1:10 am at 1:10 am #1150592
Re AZ: I never said boys shouldn’t go out till 25. I just said that parents have a responsibility to make sure their kids are prepared for marriage. If they’re not prepared at 23, why would it be better for them to get married at 22?
Here’s the bottom line: we have to do what’s best for our kids, and do right by our kids. I think that the numerous rabbanim who endorsed NASI suggested that the first few girls a boy dates should be within the suggested guidelines, after that age does not have to be a qualifying factor. I like that (not that they need my haskama). Iy”H if Mashiach’s not here and we still have this problem I will support these efforts by having my sons do just that. But after that I will not feel beholden to solve this crisis at the expense of my son’s future. If the right girl is 4 years younger, so be it. And now that my daughter’s in the parsha, if the right boy is 4 years older, so be it.April 3, 2009 5:09 am at 5:09 am #1150594
The basic argument here seems to be that because of population growth, there are more 20 year olds then 23 year olds. Therefore, if boys date at 23 and are only marrying the 20 year olds the extra 20 year old girls will be left out. This only makes sense if you assume that all girls are getting married at 20 and all boys at 23. In reality, those may be only the average ages. Meaning, that some boys will not get married right away at 23. Some will not marry a girl 3+ years younger than him. The suggested solution here is to force people to marry their own age. This is not going to practically work. The real solution as the popular speaker suggested is to remove the stigma, to suggest shidduchim between people closer in age, to teach boys that they don’t have to marry someone much younger than them. If boys would listen to all shidduch suggestions equally and not first look at the younger ones, then the problem might go away. Someone used the line earlier “there are not enough boys”. Of course there are enough, only one is necessary. The trick is finding that one. It’s all in Hashem’s hands. Hashem decrees who everyone will marry and it’s just a matter of finding that one person (and realizing that the person might not have every quality that you think you deserve/need).
As for segulas: daven sincerely, work on your bitachon, do your proper hishtadlus.April 3, 2009 11:27 am at 11:27 am #1150595
Why is there a shidduch crisis amongst boys? According to the age gap argument, the crisis should mainly be a girls only crisis. Additionally, as long as there are so many boys, of all ages, still desperately waiting to get married, its impossible to blame a lack of boys, as to why any girl isnt married.April 3, 2009 3:22 pm at 3:22 pm #1150596
Tzippi: If the was a community wide movement that the first three or four girls that boys date be close in age; we would see an unbelievable number of close in age shidduchim, and the problem would be greatly alleviated. The average guy in lakewood for example gets engaged to one of the first few girls he goes out with. If those girls would be close to his own age, we would have hundreds more close in age shiddcuhim. If you are going to do that with your own son? Kol Hakavood!! And tell your friends!
Unfortunately that has not yet been achieved on a widespread scale. However, I’ve heard from the NASI Project that in the last year in a half since the launch of the project they have been informed of well over 700 close in age shidduchim, many many of which never would’ve happened if not for the new found awareness and acceptance. Hopefully it will keep up,.April 3, 2009 4:08 pm at 4:08 pm #1150597
HaQer, what you are saying I absolutely agree with. The stigma should be removed; or more specifically, the boys should not think that it is a ma’aleh to go out with someone younger than him over someone his age. This is not manipulative or wrong in any way. And from what I hear, things are moving nicely in this respect. The only hang-up is that some boys who are new to shidduchim might prefer to go out with girls who are new to shidduchim, but relative age should not matter as long as it is close.
As long as this is the agenda I am with you. All else being equal, a boy should not favor a girl just because she is younger. So let’s do away with that stigma. But don’t start threatening the world that if they don’t “eliminate the age gap” it will lead to “a complete and utter meltdown of the shidduch system as we know it”. That’s when I will fight back.
We should do this because the stigma is wrong, not because not doing so will destroy the world. Capish?April 5, 2009 1:39 am at 1:39 am #1150598
squeak/HaQer, Do you likewise feel that a boy marrying an older (relatively the same as a girl would have no problem marrying an older boy) girl should be destigmatized?April 5, 2009 7:47 pm at 7:47 pm #1150599
Nice to see that the chevra is coming around.April 5, 2009 7:58 pm at 7:58 pm #1150600
I must have missed that.April 5, 2009 8:11 pm at 8:11 pm #1150601
If you mean the chevra is coming around because I said that if I had a son in shidduchim now (or it this is the conventional wisdom still when my sons are there) that I would have them start going out with girls within the guidelines let me make this clear: I think the approach is incorrect, I think people are missing the forest for the trees, I think the crisis is largely due to people being out for money, their image, etc. and not shalom bayis and preparing their kids adequately. BUT, BUT since so many people I respect were behind NASI, and since the suggestion that boys at least try, when they start out dating to stick with the guidelines is fairly innocuous I am willing to do that.April 5, 2009 8:11 pm at 8:11 pm #1150602
Joseph: nice to see you around here! we were worried about ya!April 5, 2009 9:10 pm at 9:10 pm #1150603
Tzippi, you wrote: “I think the crisis is largely due to people being out for money, their image, etc. and not shalom bayis and preparing their kids adequately.”
Please explain how being out for money their image etc translates into thousands more older single girls than boys. It should translate intotThousands of poor older single girls and just as many older single boys who are waiting for the money. The facts on the ground don’t seem to support that theory.
Perhaps money dictates which girls get married, NOT how many. Even if ever girl was wealthy or if boys suddenly didn’t care about money; at the end of the day if their are more girls on the island than boys it is inevitable that the number of extra girls will remain single.
However I’m happy that you are willing to go along with the suggestion that boys give it a shot when they start dating. If there were many mnay more mothers like you the situation would be significantly alleviated.April 5, 2009 9:48 pm at 9:48 pm #1150604
I would be interested in directing you, however laws of the cr prevent giving out emails or links. I’m not quite sure how I can send you the data both regarding the population growth, age differential as well as the number of older singles presently out there. However, for a quick albeit non scientific glimpse try the following. Speak to fiv, ten or more shadchanim who deal in the regular non chasidhishe crowd and ask them how many older girls (i.e. dated more than 6 yrs) they have in their database and how many older boys (i.e. having dated more than 6 years). It’s not a scientific study but it’s a good start. Another suggestion is to get in touch with the NASI Project I’m sure they would provide you with the data.April 5, 2009 10:35 pm at 10:35 pm #1150605
OK, AZ, let me rephrase this. When I feel that all the other problems in the shidduch scene now are being adequately addressed, and if once I study the data I am convinced this is so (and I am sure I will ask people greater than I to clarify if I have questions) I may, just may, give the demographics issue equal weight.
However, the money aspect bothered me, in a way initiatives of rewarding shadchanim who successfully set up older singles does not. Once you get rewarded for BOTH parties, there is social engineering involved. Gives me great pause.April 6, 2009 3:48 pm at 3:48 pm #1150606
Joseph: Yes, I do think that guys should consider slightly older girls. Both guy and girl are looking to get married. They should consider everyone else in the picture.
However, because there’s a lot of singles out there, it is necessary to narrow the search by eliminating group by group until you get down to individuals. So a yeshivish eligible should eliminate suggestions that are from a very different background, and vice versa. That is obvious, without even meeting anyone from that group because the life goals are so very far apart that it wouldn’t make a good marriage. But how can you eliminate the group of “everyone older than 23”? I don’t think you can. I think you can only eliminate them as individuals, and that requires a date.
I am saying this only in respect to “shidduch age” boys and girls. Obviously, a shidduch age boy or girl could eliminate the group of “older than shidduch age” because it is not just an age difference, but a stage of life difference. A 30 year old is a bit farther down the path than a 24 year old.April 6, 2009 5:04 pm at 5:04 pm #1150607
Tzippi: From what I understand, the money incentive to shadchanim was the NASI Projects way of marketing the concept, not a form of bribing the shadchanim to suggest inappropriate matches just to make money. Interestingly enough, hundreds of close in age shidduchim were made, many that never would have happened. Apparently raising awareness is very successful in encouraging more close in age shidduchim. You can be a case study; as you have agreed to encourage your sons in their initial foray in shidduchim to only date girls who are close to their age.April 6, 2009 5:48 pm at 5:48 pm #1150608
Interestingly enough, hundreds of close in age shidduchim were made, many that never would have happened.
Where do you get the right to make such a brazen statement? How do you know that many of these hundreds are a direct result of this initiative? Did the shadchanim admit to it? Did the boy/girl? Or are you just basing this statement on the number of people trying to collect their money?
Additionally, I fear that the NASI initiative causes some girls to be forgotten. Why should I set up “Leah” now if in a few more months she will be old enough to qualify for the funds offered by the NASI project?
I think what the NASI project does accomplish is that it gives added incentive to the shadchanim not to “forget” about the older girls.
By the way, its been obvious from these posts that you yourself are involved in some way shape or form with the NASI project.April 6, 2009 6:11 pm at 6:11 pm #1150609
AFAIK, the NASI financial incentives have stopped. So don’t worry about that aspect. The problems that I see with this is that we are endorsing widespread manipulation of young people and their parents, and also allowing “believers” such as AZ and mox to look askew at any bochur who dates or marries someone 3 years younger. We are also casting fear into the hearts of skeptical (agnostic?) girls who don’t know whether or not to believe that they need to hitch any ride they can get off the “shidduch island”.
Logical argument with the “believers” does not help, as we have shown in this thread. They will continue spouting their talking points and inventing facts to anyone in earshot. They have good intentions, but I hear that good intentions are mainly used as pavers.April 6, 2009 8:35 pm at 8:35 pm #1150610
re proud totty: I think the NASI funding has been suspended, maybe due to lack of funds. But the goals still remain.
One big beef of mine is that as the girls are now going to be conditioned to wait, make the most of the time in personal development to ready themselves, the boys are going to be less and less worth the wait and the investment. What are we doing to make our boys men? There’s too much infantilization going on IMO.April 6, 2009 10:25 pm at 10:25 pm #1150612
I guess I know which side the mod is onApril 6, 2009 10:27 pm at 10:27 pm #1150613
What makes you say that? Which side by the way?April 6, 2009 11:21 pm at 11:21 pm #1150614
well didn’t I make a good case for why I am opposing AZ and mox and others like them rather than just letting them have their opinion? And didn’t that post get deleted?April 6, 2009 11:30 pm at 11:30 pm #1150615
That was accidental, It was sandwiched within a bunch of deleted posts from one user, sorry about that.
I hope it is fixed by the time this gets posted.April 6, 2009 11:33 pm at 11:33 pm #1150616
Thanks, 39. I guess mods are human after all….April 7, 2009 12:08 am at 12:08 am #1150617
One big beef of mine is that as the girls are now going to be conditioned to wait, make the most of the time in personal development to ready themselves, the boys are going to be less and less worth the wait and the investment. What are we doing to make our boys men? There’s too much infantilization going on IMO.
There is no reason they should be conditioned to wait. The longer they wait, you would be correct in that they become less worth the investment. What are we doing to make our girls women? Keeping them waiting is infantilization.April 7, 2009 12:29 am at 12:29 am #1150618
IMO, more shidduchim would be taking place if the ENTIRE shidduch system as we know it today, would be scrapped. it has created its own Frankenstein’s Monster, and brought about the so-called crisis. The intense checking done on both sides, the going through the shadchan and not allowing young men and women to be young MEN and WOMEN by dealing with the dates on their own, has been very detrimental. And no one here or elsewhere will ever convince me that this is not so. Kids are being thrust into the adult world of preparing for mariage, but are not allowed to treat the process as adults. If a boy cannot call a girl to arrange a date, what makes you think he will ever be able to have a conversation with a female? If a girl is afraid to tell a boy directly that she does not want to see him again, then she is too immature to face MANY of life’s unpleasant moments. I have observed to much immaturity, too much interference by parents for the wrong reasons, and too little seichel in arranging for our young people to meet people of the opposite sex in a natural and healthy way. And all the segulahs in the world are not going to change what I have just stated. (Off my soapbox for now)…April 7, 2009 2:01 am at 2:01 am #1150619
Oomis, I take what you have to say seriously but I like the shidduch system. Maybe the shadchan shouldn’t be as directly involved for as long but I think it’s a good thing.
Re Joseph. I don’t get what you’re saying.
My point is, that the girls are now thinking, not a bad thing to be older, I can be more of a person, more qualified in the workplace etc. Isn’t this why the frum olam railed against women’s lib? Now we’re creating these women in the name of supporting our boys. I’m not saying this, read letters in a well-known weekly.
Do you mean that the longer the girls wait the less they’re worth the investment? I mean that the boys are less worth the investment. Believe me, I value learning tremendously but the boys have to be able to present themselves as something beyond, I am boy, hear and support me learn.
By infantilization I’m referring to the intensive parental involvement that does not lend itself to shalom bayis and a healthy level of independence, especially financial. I don’t see how boys getting married younger avoids this.April 7, 2009 4:26 am at 4:26 am #1150620
By infantilization I’m referring to the intensive parental involvement that does not lend itself to shalom bayis and a healthy level of independence, especially financial. I don’t see how boys getting married younger avoids this.
I could not agree more!!! But that, too, is part of the present shidduch system.April 7, 2009 4:20 pm at 4:20 pm #1150621
Proud Tatty: “Many of which never would have happened” That statement is based on mothers of boys saying they never would have considered the shidduch if not for the tremendous awareness that has begun to be created.
Squek: “They will continue spouting their talking points and inventing facts to anyone in earshot.”
You have still not explained which of the two basic premises you disagree with
1. Population growth of 3%-4& per year
2. Average Age gap amongst couples in non chasidishe circles
or do you not believe that these factors automatically create a significant inequity of numbers between boys and girl on shidduch island.
oomis1105: If you accept the premise (which should be obvious) that there are many more girls on the island than boys, then please explain how dating style will change that factor. I for one will offer no opinion on various styles of dating other than to say acroos the orthodox spectrum very modern to ultra yeshivish the boys by and large get married quickly (to girls-obviously for them the dating style is working) and yet many many to many girls remain single. Please explain this phenomenaApril 13, 2009 4:01 am at 4:01 am #1150622
I had to put this on hold for a few days, but I think that there will ALWAYS be more girls than boys (the female of the species is hardier than the male, even embryonically,according to my biology classes oh so many years ago), but the various dating styles tend to either hinder or help the girls who are available to be “out there” in the game, at least. If they are waiting for the shadchan to get back to them about whether or not this boy or that precious boy (or his mama) has finally agreed to be set up with her, then they are wasting time that could be better spent actually meeting young men of marriageable age. But they won’t – because that’s not how it is done in their circles. The girls who are proactive and at least going to places where frum young men are around, are seeing what is out there and are being seen, and are potentially able to meet someone suitable. That doesn’t mean that in EITHER group there will not be girls who just are not meeting guys, or that there are not too many females around. But it does kind of level the field when the girls are not merely waiting around doing nothing while the shadchan takes her time getting back to her or the boy’s family hasn’t made up its mind and they have a “list” of prospects waiting in the wings, which is essentially how the present shidduch system operates.April 17, 2009 1:01 pm at 1:01 pm #1150623
Hospitals in North America keep records of live births. Their data indicates that there are more male births every year than female births. Not enough to compensate for the 3 yr age gap, but enough to disprove your argument. Clearly you are unhappy with the dating style in the more right wing circles. I won’t debate the issue since it’s highly irrelevant to number discrepancy. Suffice it to say that the shidduch crisis is a serious problem is the “modern” crows as well. The benefit boys meeting girls on their own vis a vis the age gap is simply that boys are less likely to care about age once they meet the girls. HOWEVER as long as girls enter the island at 19 and boys at 22, we will always have many many more on the island than boys.April 17, 2009 1:34 pm at 1:34 pm #1150624
Hospitals in North America keep records of live births. Their data indicates that there are more male births every year than female births
Please post the link where you found those stats, because I would be interested in reading them. even if what you assert is true, there may be more males born, but more females survive. My cousin is a neonatal nurse, and in her hospital (which of course does not speak for any other hospital) the SURVIVAL rates of male neonates is much lower than females, resulting in more live births of VIABLE females. I hear what you are saying, but honestly, I do not believe it.April 17, 2009 2:07 pm at 2:07 pm #1150626
By rules of the cr I am not allowed to post links. Contact the NASI Project and they will send you the info. That’s were I got it from. (unfortunately I can’t post their contact info either but it is well known and was in numerous publications over Pesach.April 17, 2009 5:56 pm at 5:56 pm #1150627
thanks. I would also like to point out something that should be obvious. Those stats are also skewed by virtue of the fact that they relate to births of the whole populace, not just the Orthodox jewish population. I would wonder if the keeping of Taharas Hamishpacha laws, results in more female or male births.April 17, 2009 7:58 pm at 7:58 pm #1150628
I wonder if keeping Taharas Hamishpacha laws results in different data on all kinds of illnesses especially those related to women. Last time I checked the Orthodox population went to doctors who studied and practice medicine based on data that was accumulated from the whole populace. Therefore I conclude that short of any evidence whatsoever to support your suggestion……..April 17, 2009 8:24 pm at 8:24 pm #1150629
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.April 17, 2009 8:59 pm at 8:59 pm #1150630
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Welcome back Joseph. As you can see, the quote from Mark Twain was already mentioned in this forum.April 17, 2009 9:31 pm at 9:31 pm #1150631
Thanks Will. I noticed you are a new member. Any relation to the other Will Hill?April 17, 2009 10:02 pm at 10:02 pm #1150632
Therefore I conclude that short of any evidence whatsoever to support your suggestion……..
You winApril 19, 2009 8:29 pm at 8:29 pm #1150633
Thank oomis1105. However Joseph and Will Hill would like to continue to pretend that there isn’t a numerical problem, yet they haven’t even challenged in any form or fashion either of the two basic premises.
1. Popultaion growth
2. average age gap amongst married couples.
Perhaps oomis you’ll be able to convince them.April 19, 2009 8:51 pm at 8:51 pm #1150634
AZ: how about choose which thread to talk about this in, one or the other?April 19, 2009 8:55 pm at 8:55 pm #1150635
According to US Census data from 2003, there are 105 boys for every 100 girls up to age 17. Between ages 18 and 29 there are equal numbers of men and women.April 20, 2009 2:52 am at 2:52 am #1150637
where did you get this data from. According to the CDC the ratio is closer to 104 to 100 in the age group you are referring to. If what you where saying was true that would mean that 5% more boys than girls die or emigrate before age 25 not a very likely proposition.April 20, 2009 3:34 am at 3:34 am #1150639
mox, my information is from a report issued by the US census bureau, issued in 2003, which is based on data from 2002. I did combine age groups in my previous post, but that decrease in the ratio of men to women does indeed exist in the data.
In more detail, the report states that there are 104.1 boys for every 100 girls under 5, and 105 boys for every 100 girls in the 5 to 17 range. For the 18-24 range, there are 100.1 men for every 100 women, and in the 25-29 age range there are 99.9 men for every 100 women. According to the footnotes, the data excludes members of the armed forces who do not have a civilian adult in the household, and counts only non-institutionalized citizens. Of course, men are more likely to serve in the armed forces and to be incarcerated than are women. I’d also guess that men in the 18-29 age group are more likely than women to die from most causes, including accidents, murder, and suicide. (It would be interesting to see this breakdown with narrower age bands)Both these factors, which help account for the sharp decrease in the ratio of men to women in the 18 to 29 age range, would probably affect frum Jews to a lesser extent than the general population.April 20, 2009 11:33 am at 11:33 am #1150640
Looks like the age gap myth is quickly falling apart.April 20, 2009 8:14 pm at 8:14 pm #1150641
Joseph, seems like you didn’t read what “anon for this” wrote. He is writing that the 5% more boys per year which would alleviate slightly the problem is mitigated somewhat. In other words the age gap is MORE of a problem than mox was writing. Please clarify your comment as we value you opinion greatly.April 20, 2009 8:49 pm at 8:49 pm #1150642
AZ, it’s true that I wasn’t commenting on the age gap at all. I just looked up the information because oomis’ question made me wonder about it, and decided to share my findings here. I am curious about exactly which factors account for the decrease in the ratio of men to women with increasing age bands. The footnotes specifically mention that the data does not include Americans in institutions and those in the armed forces who do not have a civilian household member; men are more likely than women to be in those groups, and frum men are less likely to be in those groups than the general male population. It’s also true that many of the causes of mortality among men in the 17-29 age group also affect fewer frum men than the general male population.
Still, even if you say that frum men and women in the 17-29 age group have the same mortality rates (I have no reason to believe mortality rates for frum women are higher than for men), there are at most 5% more men than women in each age band. If all men marry women 3 years younger, and frum population growth is more than 2% per year (probably this number is too low b”h), this more than offsets the maximum ratio of 105 men: 100 women.
Further muddying the issue is the fact that ratio of boys to girls born varies across ethnic groups. According to the US census, it’s highest among Chinese and Filipino mothers and lower for Caucasian mothers.April 20, 2009 9:03 pm at 9:03 pm #1150643
Annon the problem is the reverse. There are to many GIRLS for to few BOYS. Hence we have a shiddcuh crisis for the girls. being that the population growth is closer to 4% and the average age gap somewhere around 3- 3.5 yrs we don’t have enough girls for the guys. even if the 5% extra boys stayed true into the 17-29 age group it isn’t enough to have enough 22 yr old boys for the 19 yr old girls.
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