Shidduch Segullah!

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  • #1150644

    anon for this
    Participant

    AZ, I understand what you are saying, but I think you didn’t read my post carefully, because I made that same point in my second paragraph.

    #1150645

    AZ
    Participant

    not to be nit picky, but you write “If all men marry women 3 years younger, and frum population growth is more than 2% per year (probably this number is too low b”h), this more than offsets the maximum ratio of 105 men: 100 women.”

    “(probably this number is too low b”h), more than offsets the problem” doesn’t express the seriousness of the problem.

    However, if we all understand the problem I’m good. Unfortunately our good friend joseph seems to disagree.

    #1150646

    anon for this
    Participant

    AZ, I didn’t remember the population growth % numbers you wrote & was being conservative.

    Anecdotally, I’ve observed that most of my classmates (I’m a woman btw) who married when they were older married men only slightly older than they were, or men who were younger. Most of my friends who married shortly after seminary, though, married men who were at least 2 or 3 years older.

    #1150647

    Joseph
    Participant

    AZ,

    It has clearly been established that there are not more young women of marriageable age alive than men. So all you are left with is the growth factor and the age gap. Once you are working upon the assumption that there are an equal amount of men and women (1:1), then for every unmarried woman there is an unmarried man. The age gap not withstanding. The only affect the age gap does, is force some of the women to WAIT longer than they would otherwise have ideally liked to before getting married. It does not leave them unmarried indefinitely.

    Additionally (and this point is separate from the previous one), so long as there is ANY frum normal male (in any particular age group) seeking to get married, no unmarried woman (in the equivalent age group) can claim she is unable to get married due to a lack of any candidate for marriage. And we know that (unfortunately) there ARE normal men in EVERY age group that are unmarried seeking to get married.

    So to claim that the shidduch crisis is more pronounced for women than for men, is absurd. And the crisis is mainly that of couples marrying later than the ideal, not G-d forbid there being a very large number of people who remain unmarried all their lives.

    #1150648

    oomis
    Participant

    If the guy available is 38 years old, and the girl is 28, she may not WANT to marry that guy, even if he is available. There are girls in their late twenties whom I know, who do not even want to go out with a guy over 32.

    #1150649

    SJSinNYC
    Member

    Looking at my sisters’ high school classes (Bais Yaakov) – my 33 year old sister has one girl in her class that isnt married. My 31 year old sister has 3. Each of them have around 100 girls in their grade.

    Is that really a crisis?

    Not everyone gets married – some people miss their chance when they are younger and turn down the right opportunity because of something silly or something real.

    #1150650

    AZ
    Participant

    Joseph: “It has clearly been established that there are not more young women of marriageable age alive than men.”

    Clearly established where?? How many shadchanim have you spoken to. How many shadchanim databases how you seen. How many High school alumni lists have you reviewed to make such a inaccurate statement. ACross the board in orthodox Jewry from very modern to ultra yeshivish this phenomena exists. (more acute in the more yeshivish circles for reasons outlined above.

    The numbers of girls on the island outnumbes the boys in the thousands. This has been documented. Feel free to contact NASI as I did to get the info. But please don”t state as fact totally false information.

    As for you other point that so long as there is any available men than any individual girl can get married is correct. If you have 100 women and 5 men clearly 5 women can get married. However 95 can’t no way no how.

    #1150652

    AZ
    Participant

    Dear Joseph:

    Speak to Gateways YU Connect Saw You at Sinai, The well known Shadchanim out there in the yeshivish crowd, Invei Hagefen (Agudah) etc. and ask them about the number of girls in their database vs the numbers of boys. This is obviously not a scientific study as it’s possible that for some reason that no one has access to the many many boys and these people only know the girls. However the sheer magnitude of the discrepancy between the numbers is a good place to start.

    I am very limitied in terms of the data that the CR will allow however the following will probable be allowed. As of this past succos there were 950 single boys in Lakewood. Take a guess Joseph how many of them were between the ages of 27-28. After your response I’ll give you the answer. I have the list in front of me.

    Joseph, I HAVE spoken to the shadchanim, the schools etd. (I have at home a copy of a study school by school how many “older” girls are still unmarried. Clearly some of these will imy”h get married. But not all as the number of boys out there isn’t enough.)

    Regarding my moral compass, I apologize for your tears but I gave the mods the phone numbers to check with Rav Shteinman’s Gabbai and Rav Elya Ber’s gabbai to verify their position on this issue. I am comfortable following their moral compass.

    #1150653

    Joseph
    Participant

    AZ, the preceding comment posted under the name “Joseph” was not mine, but of someone else now posting under this name.

    Nevertheless, we’ve both seen the Census statistics showing that more boys are born, and even at marriageable age the genders are about even.

    #1150654

    Just Smile
    Participant

    OK boys I’m not gonna get involved here in your petty little fight over facts, however, AZ, you yourself show why your “stats” mean nothing. Let me quote what you wrote –

    “This is obviously not a scientific study as it’s possible that for some reason that no one has access to the many many boys and these people only know the girls. However the sheer magnitude of the discrepancy between the numbers is a good place to start.”

    Definitely a good place to start, yup – to realize why your stats are messed up.

    I’m a single Yeshiva guy – going out for a little while now. I’m not in a single “database” or “Shidduch list” none of “Gateways YU Connect Saw You at Sinai, The well known Shadchanim out there in the yeshivish crowd, Invei Hagefen (Agudah) etc” – nothing.

    Oh, and did I mention, neither are the vast majority of my friends who are going out.

    However, the girls that we go out with and are red to are mostly on these list and places. It’s more a list of single girls then it is a list of singles.

    I don’t need every shnook shadchan to give me a call because they have the “perfect” shidduch on paper for me when they have no clue who I am. I have enough people doing that without the lists. But a girl, who it could be a year between dates, would love to get a call from anybody because it just maybe “the one”.

    Point at the end of the day – the lists are nothing to go by.

    #1150655

    yros
    Member

    just daven…

    #1150656

    yros
    Member

    mods, why didnt you say anything next to my comment????????????????

    #1150657

    Jax
    Member

    yros: game over!

    #1150660

    tzippi
    Member

    Newsflash to AZ: there are other yeshivos besides Lakewood!

    And many quality girls are also open to dating working or close to it boys, if they could find quality sechora. The whole age-based drive seems to be based on a Lakewood trajectory.

    #1150661

    SJSinNYC
    Member

    So I guess ultimately by saying that we should limit the age range, you are saying that people are not marrying the right person right now? After all, people are marrying outside of their age range…and no matter how many girls or guys they would have dated in their range, if their match was outside it they still would have married them. Right?

    #1150662

    AZ
    Participant

    wow unbelievable interest. I’ll deal with one at a time.

    Joseph: Where have you seen that indicates there are as many 22 yr old boys as 19 yr old girls. That isn’t indicated in the census stats.

    Just smile: “I’m a single Yeshiva guy – going out for a little while now” Precisely. The boys who are new to dating are not on anybody’s database. HOWEVER the boys who have been dating 5 yrs ARE. Yet the numbers of girls in the database that have been dating for 5 years outnumbers the numbers of boys by the thousands. That’s why we took a look at OLDER singles in the databases.

    “I don’t need every shnook shadchan…. I have enough people doing that without the lists. But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”

    I’m sure you are one of a kind and have everyone calling to redd you shiddcuhim, as are every one of your friends. Kind of interesting that you write “But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”

    If the boys date every week and the girls once a year, who are the boys dating?????? Obviously there are many many more girls in the pool than boys!!

    Tzippi: Last I checked Saw you at Sinai Yu connect, Invei hagefen Gateways aren’t based on a Lakewood trajectory. The reason I use lakewood is simply because it is the single largest collection of dating boys and it is the easiest to get statistics from there.

    SJSinNYC: No one can claim to know who the basherte is. This is subject to a huge discussion of which to be honest is not relevant to alleviating the crisis. However if bas ploni l’ploni means that everyone married their basherte than please explain all the older single girls with no one to match up with. Who is their Ploni?????? He got married to someone!

    BYTW: The arizl rights that bas ploni l’ploni is only till 18.

    #1150663

    oomis
    Participant

    If the boys date every week and the girls once a year, who are the boys dating?????? Obviously there are many many more girls in the pool than boys!!

    The boys are dating the girls who ARE dating – what’s so hard to understand. Obviously those girls are getting dates. But there are some who are never getting any dates, for whatever reason. I happen to believe that it is because there are not enough boys to go around who will be interested specifically in THEM, though they might be interested in other girls. That still leaves these girls without dates.

    #1150664

    AZ
    Participant

    Math 101: If the number of boys = the number of girls, then for every girl who doesn’t get a date there should be a boy sitting around. If the “all” the boys are getting dates its because there are far fewer boys “around” than girls.

    Incidentally, the reason why the boys can be so selective is a direct result of the inequity of numbers not a cause.

    #1150665

    squeak
    Participant

    If the boys date every week and the girls once a year, who are the boys dating?????? Obviously there are many many more girls in the pool than boys!!

    Who ever said that there aren’t more girls than boys in the pool? I don’t know why anyone would deny that (unless there is greater evidence against this than for it). I know I wasn’t. When I last checked, this was about discrediting the specious argument made by a group of well meaning individuals that the “shortage” is due to an age gap. That argument is fallacious and deceptive. There are no facts behind the argument; only emotions.

    AZ, I continue to be bothered by your tactics, which is why I stopped debating with you. Don’t try to claim victory with an unrelated argument.

    #1150666

    Just Smile
    Participant

    OK, let me address your points to me.

    I’m gonna start with the second one to get it out of the way.

    I am not one of a kind (well I am but that’s in a different way and has nothing to do with this). I am not a “specially good” boy. I’m not even learning in Yeshiva anymore – I work full time. Yet I still have people calling me while girls don’t. (I’ll explain in the next part why.) Therefore girls tend to put their name on lists much faster then boys. So even in the “been dating for over 6 years” section the numbers will be VERY off.

    Now, Yes, there maybe more boys that are 22 then girls that are 19 – therefore what? girls shouldn’t get married as fast – that’s gonna do it – tell a girl don’t go out for 3 more years – that way you’ll find a shidduch faster. Or do you want to tell boys to get married earlier? I hate to say this, if you would’ve tried to convince me to get married at 19-20 i would’ve punched you so hard. I wasn’t stupid enough to know that that is not in my best interest. The people I’m going out with now, first of all I wouldn’t go out with then, and my criteria in what I’m looking for changed a lot in the 3 year from 19-22. I have a better idea. Well now that I’m thinking about it. It’s probably a good idea. Tell guys to marry at 19. Then they’ll get divorced at 21 and remarry at 22. That will solve the shidduch crisis. At least girls will be married for a few years as opposed to never.

    Yes there are more 22 yr boys then 19 yr old girls? Therefore what?

    We should change

    #1150667

    AZ
    Participant

    Squek: Nice to have you back. That post was strictly in response to Just Smile.

    You seem to agree that there are more girls than boys in the pool. Your issue is that you don’t buy the age gap explanation as to why there are more girls in the pool. I’ll ask once again which of the following two points to you dispute.

    1. Growth of 3-4% per year

    2. Average age difference among couples in the 3 yr range.

    If you agree with both factors than I’m not sure what there is to debate. If you disagree, please offer some logical argument to disprove the two seemingly obvious points.

    #1150668

    AZ
    Participant

    Just Smile: clearly you concede that there are more 22 yr old boys than 19 yr old girls. I haven’t ever (in this forum or elsewhere) suggested that boys get married at 19 nor have we suggested that girls get married at 22. What we are discussing is two points.

    1. The community needs to realize the source of the crisis. Only then can we even begin to solve it.

    2. Boys who are dating ages 22,23,24,25 should be encouraged by their parents, friends, rebbeim to date girls there own age. Is that SO radical??

    This simple tactic has been extremely effective in the last year. Any problem with it?

    #1150669

    SJSinNYC
    Member

    No one can claim to know who the basherte is. This is subject to a huge discussion of which to be honest is not relevant to alleviating the crisis. However if bas ploni l’ploni means that everyone married their basherte than please explain all the older single girls with no one to match up with. Who is their Ploni?????? He got married to someone!

    Isn’t that the ultimate point? To marry your bashert? And does everyone really get married? There will always be a percentage that don’t (some people dont want to, some people cant, some people just dont find the right person) and I wonder if that portion is what you are calling the “age gap difference.” I don’t think 100% of men or women ever got married.

    Also, most of the people I know (anecdotal I know) married within 2 years of their age and many married the same age.

    #1150670

    squeak
    Participant

    AZ, I am here as much as before. I don’t want to continue the debate because I get frustrated when talking to missionaries. I’ve had experience with many others, as I made clear at the beginning of this discussion (back on page 4).

    But I do owe you an answer to the question you have posed to me so many times. Sorry.

    1. I dispute the 3-4%. It is conjured. But this is a minor point.

    2. I do not dispute that a 3 yr age difference is considered desirable. I don’t know if it is actually the average, but I would not make this a point of contention since that is the basis of the discussion. In other words, I am trying to defend the practice of allowing an age gap, so why would I dispute that there is one?

    As to why there is a second side to the debate, it is because there is so much more to consider than just inputting a growth factor into a spreadsheet. A fifth grade child can tell me what the difference between X * 1.03 ^ 5 and X * 1.03 ^ 2 is. What you are missing is the fact that people are not numbers but people (all actuaries seem to miss this point). They can be represented by numbers if you can account for all their variant behaviors. But you cannot isolate a behavior and model a population based on a single assumption. That is too simplistic. The result of that type of modeling is GIGO.

    People die. People get sick. People have disabilities, physical and mental. People can be loners. People can abandon their community. People from outside a community can join. A community can impose harsher standards on certain people than on others. The caveats are endless. Tell me how you accounted for all of this in your model, and then we can renew our discussion.

    As I said originally (back on page 4), when the first analyst took up my offer to have me review his model, I suggested some changes and some conservatism and the effect he was trying to prove was nullified.

    A suggestion for you, if you are willing, is to actually model a population and include dynamic behaviors, instead of just typing in a number and multiplying it by a factor. Sounds hard? It is! But your way proves naught.

    #1150671

    squeak
    Participant

    Hi SJS! You didn’t have to disappear on everyone just to get out of finishing our chess game. I told you to take back the move before I took your bishop!

    #1150672

    tzippi
    Member

    To AZ: OK, I understand you know there are yeshivos beyond BMG. But all the suggestions by a prominent pro-age-engineering organization are geared to the yeshiva guys who go to Israel and then back home for shidduchim. These guys are NOT so well represented on sawyouatsinai, etc.

    I think the suggestions are a recipe for disaster. I was determined to hold my tongue till I actually spoke to someone with the organization. But having boys start dating younger? Only going to E”Y AFTER marriage? On whose dime?

    We have to encourage independence after marriage. If the safety net is taken away, where are we leaving our kids? Yes, tragically (happened to me) parents die before their kids are on their own, and the kids don’t have the guidance and safety net of a parent at that stage. Hashem steps in for His orphaned kids. We can’t ask for miracles when setting up our kids’ batei neeman.

    Oh, and by discouraging boys from learning more than a year in E”Y before marriage: what if they were learning so well in chutz la’aretz that they put off E”Y till 22-23, and what if they are blossoming so so that they need more than a year? What are we doing to this generation’s growth in Torah learning? It has to be more organic, more in sync with what the yachid needs.

    Sorry if I’m rambling a bit but I am just so frosted!!!

    #1150673

    AZ
    Participant

    SJSinNYC: you write, “I wonder if that portion is what you are calling the “age gap difference.” I don’t think 100% of men or women ever got married.”

    That portion is NOT what is referred to by the “age gap difference”. We refer to the many many more older girls than boys. Suppose we have 100 older boys, perhaps they (or those who rc”l never marry) are a result of the small percentage of people who never get married. Obviously a corresponding number of older girls would be for the same reason. However, how do we have so many MORE older single girls abouve and beyond the total number of older boys with no one to marry?? THAT is what is a result of the “age gap”.

    Squek: You seem to agree to both points and therefore agree that there are many more girls on the island than boys. (correct me if I’m wrong).

    You then write,

    “People die. People get sick. People have disabilities, physical and mental. People can be loners. People can abandon their community. People from outside a community can join. A community can impose harsher standards on certain people than on others. The caveats are endless.”

    Assuming we have 100 boys on the island and 150 girls as you seem to agree. Are you suggesting that the reason for the extra 50 girls on the island is NOT a result of the factors that you agree to, but rather because.

    A. significantly more boys die young than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

    b. significantly more boys are loners than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

    c. significantly more boys get sick than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

    d. significantly more boys are disabled than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

    e. significantly fewer boys from outside our community join than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

    f. harsher standards are imposed on boys than on girls (i guess therefore making more boys unmarriagble)

    In all honesty I don’t event think that you believe this. You agree that the two factors we put forth create a inequity of numbers, yet you argue that the inequity of numbers is due to other “endless caveats” that in no way shape or form create a significantly smaller pool of dating boys.

    #1150674

    Just Smile
    Participant

    “This simple tactic has been extremely effective in the last year. Any problem with it?”

    Personally, no. But I have many friends who do. A lot of people specifically want to marry a girl thats a few years younger then them for certain reasons. And frankly, I can understand that very much.

    Additionally, most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married. Is it just because they haven’t found “the one”, or is there something that I don’t know about? Many people don’t want to take the chance.

    If Hashem wants me to get married he’ll send the right girl when he wants her to come. Same thing for girls. Let’s not go jump and get people to go out with different people then they would “for the better good”.

    And by the way, one of the big reasons why there are more girls then boys is because it’s much easier to be a “frum yeshivish” girl then a “frum yeshivaish” guy. So you have much more guys that people in the frum community won’t want their daughter to go out with then girls.

    #1150675

    AZ
    Participant

    Just Smile:

    “And by the way, one of the big reasons why there are more girls then boys is because it’s much easier to be a “frum yeshivish” girl then a “frum yeshivaish” guy. So you have much more guys that people in the frum community won’t want their daughter to go out with then girls. “

    I was waiting for the argument It’s easier for there to be a good girl than a good boy.

    If I may ask one question.

    WHO DO THE “NOT” GOOD BOYS MARRY.

    They do seem to be getting married. One thing I know is that they are marrying females! Arguments such as those explain (maybe) which girls get married but NOT how many. At the end of the day, if we have 100 boys on the island and 150 girls …..

    #1150676

    Just Smile
    Participant

    AZ –

    They either wait longer till they start going out (there are plenty of people who I know that waited a good few years till they were 26,27,28) to “find themselves” but they take themselves “off the market” or they marry “not” good girls from more modern families – but those families aren’t on your radar of shidduchim – so it doesn’t make a difference to you that a more modern girl gets engaged – she wasn’t on any of your lists

    On your island you would have 25 boys go off the derech and walk to the other end of the island and marry the Indians while only 3 girls did that. Then you would have 147 girls to 75 boys. (and why are you starting it at 150 and 100 – the numbers aren’t that messed up – there are plenty of single boys out there)

    And by the way you seem to have completely ignored my first point.

    #1150677

    mox
    Member

    Squeak

    I imagine this is the crux of your argument.

    “People die. People get sick. People have disabilities, physical and mental. People can be loners. People can abandon their community. People from outside a community can join. A community can impose harsher standards on certain people than on others”

    We know the rate at which people die. We have a pretty good idea as to the rate they get sick. Granted Boys die, get (physically with mental illnesses women seem to have a higher incidence)sick and disabled at a faster rate than girls however at those ages the it is a marginal factor.

    One can speculate on any number of theories however until without evidence it is simply speculation. I have spoken to a number of people to try to find out if boys become unmarrigable at a higher rate than girls due to undesirable behavior but I was not able to come up with anything.

    When given the choice between a theory with a significant amount of evidence behind it, one whose mechanics you don’t seem to dispute, and speculation, I would go with the former.

    Even if you are right that the reason for the disparity is something else reducing the age gap would alleviate the problem.

    By the way the Avi Chai Day School study is in the publications section of their web site. The studies themselves are in pdfs in pop up windows which may be why you where not able to find it in a search.

    #1150678

    AZ
    Participant

    Just Smile:

    You write’ “but those families aren’t on your radar of shidduchim – so it doesn’t make a difference to you that a more modern girl gets engaged – she wasn’t on any of your lists”

    I’m not quite sure why you think “modern” girls aren’t on any of the lists. Last I checked the shadchanim and organizations that I’ve spoken to deal will girls from all backgrounds and styles provided they are orthodox. This shidduch crisis exists very very much in the “modern” (I hate labels but you used them) crowd.

    As for you first point. That brain lock

    “most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married”

    is exactly what needs to be countered. There are so many regular normal great girls 21-24 (and older, I’m just using those ages as the initial stage) who have BARELY dated. It is absurd to think that if she isn’t married yet, there must be something wrong with her. B”H as a result of the publicity and discussion of the past year, many many boys have gotten married to girls who are close to their own age. AND guess what? They realized that the silly arguments put forth to NEED a much younger girl are just that, silly.

    (That’s not to say that for some boys the right girl for him will be a couple years younger. The issue is correcting the misconception that EVERYONE needs to marry a girl much younger.)

    #1150679

    mepal
    Member

    Welcome, mox! head over to the ‘New members’ thread to get the official welcome.

    #1150680

    oomis
    Participant

    If Hashem wants me to get married he’ll send the right girl when he wants her to come. Same thing for girls. Let’s not go jump and get people to go out with different people then they would “for the better good”.

    IF?????? Of course He wants you to get married. The first mitzvah is Pru Urvu. But… many girls and guys do not marry because they do not meet the one they are supposed to marry, because the boy was,”too short, too poor, not learned enough, ” or the girl was “too fat, too tall, too plain, didn’t go to the right seminary…” etc. We set up roadblocks all by ourselves. I ahve a friend who is challushing nwo that her daughter’s friends are getting married left and right and her daughter, who is a great kid, pretty, very, very smart, personable, has excellent middos, and is a great cook, is not dating. What she will not acknowledge to herself, but I will here (I don’t think she reads this forum), is that she is incredibly nit-picky and unrealistic. She doesn’t want a boy whose PARENTS will not support the couple (usually it is the girl whose side gives “kest” isn’t it), because she and her husband are not financially well-ff. But she also only wants “the best boy” from a wealthy home. Most best boys from wealthy homes, have lists and lists of “best girls” also from wealthy homes. She also ONLY wants a very tall boy from a large family. What if the perfect shidduch comes along and he is an only child or has only one or two siblings? She won’t even hear of the shidduch. And she is making these decisions FOR her daughter, without even talking to her to see how she would feel about it. I sincerely pray her daughter does make a perfect shidduch, she deserves it, as she is really a wonderful girl. But with the parameters being so stringent (and I only mentioned a few of the “list” items), it may not happen for a while, and when it does, she may have to compromise many of those “non-negotiables.” I think lots of girls are in this same boat.

    #1150682

    AZ
    Participant

    Very very sad indeed. It is just such a girl who may unfortunately be one of the 50 left on the island. It’s not fair that the boys can be picky AND get away with it. But that’s a direct derivative of the inequity of numbers. A picky girl on the other hand is playing with fire. HOWEVER, even if girls weren’t “picky” whatsoever (and I will posit that the overwhelming majority are NOT, although THAT is hard to prove) if there are 150 girls and 100 guys on the island …….

    #1150684

    squeak
    Participant

    AZ, you summed up my opinion very nicely. Not that I believe any one of the factors I listed is the cause for what appears to be a shortage of eligible boys (but what really is only a shortage in a very insular and picky sect). But I believe that your factor is just as insignificant. The issue is not due to any one cause alone (though if I had to pin it down on one, I’d put it to the last one on my list, and the age gap not even in the top 10).

    As for other things you have said, I STRONGLY agree with you that the perception of “most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married” NEEDS to be done away with.

    Manipulating people is wrong.

    #1150685

    anonymisss
    Participant

    I don’t know what the big deal is. God runs the world and is making sure that every person is getting what is best for him/her. I think the issue of keeping our youth on the right derech is a far greater and sadder problem than the girls not getting married.

    And this is coming from a no-longer-eighteen-single!

    ~a~

    #1150688

    SJSinNYC
    Member

    There is also an additional factor.

    Some people get married and widowed young. Or divorced. So they might marry someone who has never been married. So someone might get married young, get divorced young and never marry again.

    AZ, I think you are oversimplifying.

    #1150689

    AZ
    Participant

    Squek: You clearly agree that there is a significant numerical discrepancy between the numbers of boys and girls on the island. Yet you write;

    “(though if I had to pin it down on one, I’d put it to the last one on my list, and the age gap not even in the top 10”

    So long as you agree to the two basic premises (and you haven’t begun to disprove either)

    1. Population Growth of 3%-4%

    2. Average age gap amongst couples of aprox. 3yrs

    These factors automatically dictate close to 10% of girls having no chance to marry. How can that be refereed to as a “insignificant factor”???

    As for you second comment “manipulating people is wrong”. I don’t get it. Is encouraging boys to date girls their own age wrong?? Is pointing out the benefits of dating girls who are 21-24 wrong?

    SJSinNYC:

    You write:

    “Some people get married and widowed young. Or divorced. So they might marry someone who has never been married. So someone might get married young, get divorced young and never marry again.”

    I don’t quite understand how that impacts in any way the “simple” math that dictates that 10% of each graduating class has no one to marry. Lets go back to our island. If there are 100 boys and 150 girls. Say 90 boys marry 90 girls. We have 10 boys left and 60 girls. Thinking that the eitza is for those 50 girls to hope to latch on to the widows/divorces men from the 90 is simply not realistic.

    If I may say so myself; the math IS simple but it’s people who refuse to acknowledge it who are oversimplifying the situation.

    Joseph:

    The island I refer to is the total dating pool of orthodox jews in North America. If you have some plane that could ship the thousands of stuck girls and land them in a community with eligible available men, I’ll be the first one to contribute towards the cost of transportation. HOWEVER that solution has yet to be found.

    #1150690

    anonymisss
    Participant

    The island I refer to is the total dating pool of orthodox jews in North America. If you have some plane that could ship the thousands of stuck girls and land them in a community with eligible available men, I’ll be the first one to contribute towards the cost of transportation. HOWEVER that solution has yet to be found.

    That’s right, AZ, so just take a chill. God’s the one running the show, not you.

    ~a~

    #1150691

    AZ
    Participant

    anonymiss: W

    We can choose to let the natural results of our actions take their course and in all likelihood we will continue to have the same results that we have now.

    Einstein said

    “the defination of insanity is to keep on doing what we have been doing and expect different results”.

    G-d expects us to do what we can we see a situation that needs fixing. To be honest I wouldn’t take this responsibility myself. However it is well documented that many of the present leaders of our nation, (Rav Elayshiv, Rav Shteinman, Rav Kamenetzky, and ybl”c Rav Shmuel Berenbaum and Rav Henoch Liebowitz to name just a few) are well aware of the seriousness of the situation. And, contrary to your suggestion, they have not advised to “take a chill”. We are expected to do what we can just like we must in any tzara facing the klal or a individual.

    As a famous gadol once said, the concept of kefira is a middah that one must use when trying to help SOMEONE ELSE. We have no right to tell the person that I’ll take a chill; it’s G-d’s problem not mine. Any individual or community that could alleviate a problem is obligated to do so. Once we have exhausted all avenues we then turn to hashem and say, YOU the creator of the world are in charge.

    HAVE WE FULLFILLED OUR END OF THE DEAL, Or are we just passing the buck???

    #1150692

    squeak
    Participant

    AZ, I think that the new definition of insanity is regurgitating the same quote over and over and spewing the same empty arguments in front of the same audience and expecting to get different results. I don’t buy your side of it because it is bogus. I’ve already explained that 3-4% annual growth is a fabricated and grossly exaggerated number.

    The reason that this theory has taken hold, where other theories failed, is because the “blame” given by the theory seems morally acceptable to us. It seems like there is no harm caused by saying that boys should be going out with girls their own age, so we want to accept that this will solve the problem. But if we say (for example) that the problem is that boys have a much harder vetting process (i.e. many years of long days in yeshiva, and the possession of a “plan” – have you ever seen a girl with a plan?) than girls do (half days in sem for a coupla months – who can’t handle that?), that theory is far more difficult to digest. It lays the blame at the feet of a failed system – that we have no way to repair. Which reason is more culpable? The weak will choose yours.

    Now please, take it somewhere else. I’ve had enough of this banter.

    #1150693

    The Rov
    Member

    “natural results of our actions take their course”

    AZ, uh no. This is the will of the Lord in his infinite wisdom. You sound quite obsessed with this little theory of yours. Accept that you are mistaken, as everyone is pointing out. And don’t try insinuating false ideas in the name of Gedolei Yisroel, that they have not expressly stated. Rav Elayshiv, Rav Shteinman, Rav Kamenetzky, and ybl”c Rav Shmuel Berenbaum and Rav Henoch Liebowitz have never come up with these ideas, from the Cuckoo Nest, that you are expressing.

    Thank You,

    The Rov

    #1150695

    AZ
    Participant

    Squek: You write

    “I’ve already explained that 3-4% annual growth is a fabricated and grossly exaggerated number.”

    You have claimed, but I don’t recall an explanation. Especially in light of the fact that a study of day schools across North America showed the annual growth to be in the 3-4% range. (the more right wing the larger population growth due to larger family sizes.)

    You also write:

    “if we say (for example) that the problem is that boys have a much harder vetting process (i.e. many years of long days in yeshiva, and the possession of a “plan” – have you ever seen a girl with a plan?) than girls do (half days in sem for a coupla months – who can’t handle that?), that theory is far more difficult to digest.”

    Please explain yourself. In previous posts you have agreed to the (obvious) statement that their are many more girls on the island than boys. The numerical explanation happens to explain that phenomena. Your suggestion about vetting processes etc. which is a re-take on the “it’s much easier to be a good girl than a good guy” theory still doesn’t explain how if every guy gets married to one girl. How are their more girls left at the end of the day. If their are more “good” girls than good” guys. we should be left with a bunch of “good” girls and a equal number of “not good” boys. Yet you yourself admit this is not the case.

    The Rov:

    I’m not sure which ideas you are referring to. If you mean the concept that THE cause of the shidduch crisis is due to the inequity of numbers on shidduch island. Then I beg to differ. All the names that of Ziknei Hador you have mentioned have signed to this effect encouraging boys to date girls their own age for this reason. The letter has been printed numerous times in various frum newspaper.

    You write:

    “This is the will of the Lord in his infinite wisdom.”

    That is a very convenient remark for a person or community who don’t want to take responsibility for anything. I suppose we should shut down, Hatzalza, Camp Simcha Bonei Oilam, Yad Eliezer, Tomchie Shabbos and any of the other myriad of unbelievable organizations that our community has ongoing. After all what all these organizations have in common is, they help alleviate situations that were brought on by “Lord in his infinite wisdom”. Of course it’s the ratzon hashem and he expects us to be up to the challenge.

    #1150696

    tzippi
    Member

    Re AZ: Gedolim came on board the shidduch initiative but recently there’s been this same ad in the major Jewish papers with NO NAME whatsoever on it. This ad had a lot of BAD ideas in it. What’s going on now?

    #1150697

    AZ
    Participant

    Which Ideas? The only ads I saw came fro the NASI Project that has strong backing.

    #1150698

    squeak
    Participant

    The “island” that has many more boys than girls is the “yeshivish” and “right-wing” island only. In the general world, there is no shortage of boys. Logically, this means that there must be a girl shortage on other “islands”. Indeed, I have seen that this is so – a) in insular Chassidic communities and b) in the “singles” communities.

    #1150699

    tzippi
    Member

    To AZ: encouraging girls to delay shidduchim a few years, and boys to either not learn in E”Y till after marriage or only for an abbreviated time. As to why these can be bad ideas, read a letter in the current Yated that I could have written.

    #1150700

    AZ
    Participant

    Squek:

    Modern Orthodox, YU, etc. clearly have the shortage of boy problems that we have been discussing. Try picking up a phone and speaking to the various shadchanim and organizations that deal with those communities, and you will quickly see how true it is.

    Re Chassidic communities:

    we have discussed previously that there is NOT a shortage of boys there simply because they don’t have the age gap issue. Boys begin dating at the same age as the girls.

    In a nutshell there is a tremendous shortage of 22 yr old boys vis a vis 19 yr old girls. No two ways about it.

    tzippi:

    I assume you are referencing the discussion that has been taking place in various media forms regarding the “stlyle” that almost all the boys go to learn in Eretz Yisroel after a couple of years in bais medrash. It is no secret that many of them are not nearly as productive in their learning there as they are were both prior and subsequent to their stay in Eretz Yisroel. The simple conclusion is thererefore not every single boy should automatically go just because it’s the style. I actually think that’s a very reasonable point. Whether or not it will have a positive effect on closing the age gap (it will), is only a secondary point.

    Do you really think that boys who would do better by not going should still go? Or are you in la la and think that all the boys who go are fabulously productive. If you believe the later try speaking to good boys (and their american rebbeim) who have been there in the last five years and ask them in hindsight if it was a samrt decision to go.

    #1150701

    tzippi
    Member

    The discussion about boys in E”Y is an entirely different one than what the ad adressed.

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