Two months of sharply rising prices have raised concerns that record-high government financial aid and the Federal Reserves ultra-low interest rate policies when the economy is already surging have elevated the risk of accelerating inflation.
In May, consumer prices rose 5% from a year earlier, the largest such year-over-year jump since 2008.
Many economists see the recent spike as temporary. Others say they worry that higher consumer prices will persist. Jason Furman, a Harvard professor who was President Barack Obamas top economic adviser, thinks the reality is more complicated. He does, however, lean toward the higher-inflation-will-persist camp.
Furman notes that while most economists expect inflation to slow from its current quickened pace, not all think it will fall back to the Feds preferred level of 2% a year.
The Associated Press spoke recently with Furman about why higher inflation might prove only temporary, why it might persist and whether a little more inflation is all that bad.
The interview was edited for length and clarity.
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Q. WHATS DRIVING INFLATION UP, AND DO YOU THINK IT WILL PERSIST?
A. Theres been a lot of very temporary inflation from a set of quirks related to the economys reopening. For example, used car prices have absolutely soared, and other prices are getting back to where they were pre-pandemic. I dont think anyone thinks the recent rate of price increase is going to continue. The question is, how much does it slow down? Does it slow down all the way back to the 2% increase every year we used to see? Or does it slow down less than that, and were left with something more like a 3% increase every year?
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Q. HOW BAD WOULD 3% INFLATION BE? IS IT SOMETHING WE REALLY NEED TO AVOID?
A. I dont actually think 3% inflation would be terrible, but it depends. If policymakers tried to lower inflation from 3% to 2%, (by raising interest rates), that could be pretty painful. If wages dont keep up with prices, that would also be troubling. But if we want to operate the economy, year in and year out, at a higher inflation rate going forward, I dont see that as a problem. But I do think its important to make policy based on the most realistic and accurate expectations for whats happening in the future.
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Q. BEYOND THE ECONOMYS REOPENING, WHAT MIGHT DRIVE A MORE SUSTAINED BOUT OF INFLATION?
A. I think the four reasons why you might worry that inflation is going to be more persistent are, No. 1, there are some shoes that havent dropped yet. The biggest of them being the price of shelter thats rent. And then its something called owners equivalent rent, which is what it costs a homeowner to live in their home. (Both rents and home prices have risen sharply.)
Second factor is some prices are sticky. That means they dont adjust really quickly and right away. A lot of prices change once a year, and youre going to see more of those price changes over time. Wages also tend to be sticky. A lot of employers might in September decide on new wages for January.
The third factor is that its likely that demand continues to exceed supply through the rest of the year. People have a lot of money. Theyre spending that money, but not everyones back to work, which means we cant make everything that people want to buy.
And finally, and most speculatively, expectations for inflation play a big role in the dynamics of inflation. Could expectations change? Could they become unanchored if people start to expect more inflation? It would be self-fulfilling.
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Q. HOW DOES THE CURRENT SITUATION COMPARE WITH THE SPIRALING INFLATION OF THE 1970s?
A. Theres no danger of a repeat of the experience like the 1970s. The Fed learned that lesson. Theyll never let inflation get to 10%. The 1960s is the model for what were going through now. Inflation crept up from about 1.5% to about 5%.
One of the troubling things in the 1960s was that wages didnt keep up with prices, and so people saw their purchasing power, their real wages fall. Im not saying thats whats going to happen now, but that is the scenario to be worried about.
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Q. DO YOU THINK THE FED HAS PROPERLY ASSESSED THE RISKS?
A. They shifted policy in the right direction at their latest meeting (on June 15-16). But I think theyre going to surprise themselves that theyre going to end up with a very strong recovery in jobs, that were going to end up with more inflation than we expect. And so theyre going to raise rates sooner than they think theyre going to.
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Q. WOULD THAT SLOW THE ECONOMY OR POTENTIALLY CAUSE A RECESSION?
A. Theres two scenarios for the Fed. The most likely one is that our unemployment rate is quite low in 2022. Inflation is running above trend. And so the choice is very easy. Theyve achieved roughly their maximum employment mandate. They raise rates. The bad scenario for the Fed would be the unemployment rate remains elevated and inflation is running at 3% and then their dual mandate will be pulling them in different directions. And Im not sure how they would resolve that.
(AP)
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