The latest Haaretz poll, released on Thursday, 26 Kislev, shows Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu continues to lead in the race among candidates for prime minister. However the poll shows this is not because he is liked, but because people feel despite it all he remains the most qualified among the candidates.
Mr. Netanyahu continues to lead with a sizable margin against competitors from the left and right as being the most suitable candidate for prime minister.
The Haaretz-Dialogue poll was conducted on Tuesday night 24 Kislev after Eli Yishai announced his own party. The poll was supervised by Prof. Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University.
The poll determines that if elections were held today, both Likud and the combined Labor/The Movement lists would receive 21 votes. In the previous poll, three weeks earlier, Likud received 24 seats. That was before Labor and The Movement parties aligned.
Would you like to see PM Netanyahu remain prime minister after the upcoming elections?
53% no
34% yes
13% do not know
Who among the following candidates is best suited to serve as prime minister?
36% Moshe Kahlon
23% Yuval Steinitz
11% Yair Lapid
30% do not know
Is the nation on the right track following six years of Netanyahu leadership?
54% not on the right track
27% on the right track
19% do not know
Who is most responsible for mounting international pressure on Israel?
36% The policies of the Government of Israel
32% The Americans and the Europeans
24% The Palestinians
8% do not know
Likud claims voting for Yisrael Beitenu will result in a left-wing government. Do you agree?
49% do not agree
30% agree
21% do not know
FM Avigdor Lieberman claims in Operation Protective Edge Israel was dragged into the fighting by Hamas and did not initiate events. Do you agree?
46% do not agree
36% agree
18% do not know
Who is most suited to be prime minister among the following candidates?
34% Binyamin Netanyahu
17% Yitzchak Herzog
12% Naftali Bennett
7% Avigdor Lieberman
6% Yair Lapid
6% Moshe Kahlon
18% do not know
The poll shows that Shas was dealt a fatal blow by Eli Yishai breaking away. The poll shows that Shas would only receive 4 seats, the minimum to enter Knesset as the minimum threshold is 3.25%. The poll also shows Yishai’s party would only receive 3 seats, not enough to enter Knesset but still leaving Shas devastated.
The poll asked respondents what they think of an alignment of Yesh Atid headed by Yair Lapid and Kulanu headed by Moshe Kahlon. When they ran alone the Lapid received 11 seats in the poll and Kahlon 12. The combined list only resulted in one additional seat, 24.
The parties – Parenthesis is a party’s current standing in Knesset.
Likud 21 (18)
Labor/The Movement 21 (15 + 6)
Bayit Yehudi 16 (12)
Kulanu 12
Yesh Atid 11 (19)
Yisrael Beitenu 8 (13)
Yahadut Hatorah 8 (7)
Meretz 6 (6)
Hadash 5 (4)
Ra’am-Ta’al 5 (4)
Shas 4 (11)
Yishai 3
Kadima 0 (2)
Balad 0 (3)
The poll also determines if Yesh Atid & Kulanu run together, the Labor/The Movement alliance loses one seat, the Kahlon/Lapid team gain a seat as indicated earlier, emerging with 24, and Yahadut Hatorah gains a seat, moving to 9. Such a reality would also bring Shas down to 3 and it would not enter Knesset.
The poll commissioned by Haaretz involved 505 respondents representing the population. The margin of error for each question is 4.2%.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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One Response
1. The poll is from a very left wing publication, and typically people answering polls try to give the answer the pollsters is looking for. Plus in general, Israeli polls understate hareidim and to a lesser extent other non-elites (such as Sefardim).
2. The margin of error is 4% (meaning five seats), while the threshold is slightly more than 3% (four seats). That means the poll results show that the election could indicate a radical shift to the right, left, or anywhere in between. In other words, the poll is largely meaningless.
3. Any party expecting anything close to the threshold will probably seek to run a joint list (e.g. if Shas is forecase to fall below the threshold, running a joint list with Yahadut ha-Torah might seem like a very good idea).