A newly released poll conducted by co/efficient shows Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik in a near tie with Democratic incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul in a hypothetical race for New York governor in 2026. The survey of likely voters indicates Hochul leading Stefanik 43% to 42%, with 15% of voters undecided.
The same poll highlights President Donald Trump’s favorability in New York, where he holds a 44% favorability rating, surpassing Hochul’s net approval rating of -17%. Only 23% of respondents believe Hochul deserves re-election, while nearly two-thirds prefer a new governor, underscoring her vulnerability.
Stefanik, a staunch Trump ally representing New York’s 21st Congressional District, has not officially declared her candidacy but has expressed strong interest.
“Unlike Kathy Hochul, who was defeated after one term in Congress, we have a record of winning — not just Republicans but winning independents and a fair percentage of Democrats,” Stefanik told the New York Post.
Her favorability stands at 34%, with 32% unfavorable and 34% unsure or unaware of her, according to the poll.
A separate Siena College poll conducted last month reinforces Stefanik’s strength among Republican voters, showing her with 35% support in a potential GOP primary, compared to 22% for Rep. Mike Lawler and 11% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
No Republicans have formally entered the gubernatorial race, but Stefanik’s senior adviser, Alex DeGrasse, told Breitbart News that she is a “shoe-in” for the nomination if she runs, citing her popularity among New York Republicans.
Hochul’s campaign dismissed Stefanik’s potential candidacy, labeling her an “extremist” and “staunch Trump loyalist.” Spokesperson Jen Goodman said, “We welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record.”
The poll also reflects broader dissatisfaction with Hochul’s leadership. A Siena College survey from April reported Hochul’s favorability at 44%, with 48% of voters preferring another candidate in 2026. Her approval rating remains slightly positive, but her re-election prospects face challenges, particularly as New York has seen a shift toward Republican candidates in recent elections.
Stefanik’s potential run follows her withdrawal as Trump’s nominee for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in March 2025, a decision made to maintain the GOP’s slim House majority. She has since been named chairwoman of House Republican Leadership. Her campaign has been bolstered by endorsements from major donors and encouragement from Trump, who posted on Truth Social, “Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!”
New York has not elected a Republican governor since George Pataki’s tenure ended in 2007. The 2022 gubernatorial race, where Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by 6 points, was the state’s closest in decades.
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Good luck to a republican trying to win any downstate votes outside of boro Park and willyB.. Lee zeldin dominated upstate but ultimately lost by 600,000 votes thanks to the downstate woketards.