U.S. intelligence assessments delivered to President Donald Trump indicate that Iran’s ruling regime is facing its most severe internal crisis since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with analysts warning that Tehran’s grip on power continues to weaken amid mass protests and mounting casualties.

According to The New York Times, which cited several people familiar with the intelligence, recent reports presented to Trump conclude that the Islamic Republic is at its most vulnerable point in more than four decades, and that pressure on the regime is still intensifying.

The assessments come as Iran enters a second month of nationwide protests, initially sparked by economic grievances and rising living costs, but rapidly evolving into a broader challenge to the regime’s authority. The demonstrations have been met with a sweeping and increasingly violent crackdown by Iranian security forces.

Data compiled by the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) shows at least 6,126 confirmed deaths during the past 30 days of unrest, including 5,777 protesters. An additional 17,091 deaths remain under investigation, HRANA reported. The group also said Iranian authorities have arrested at least 41,880 people during the same period.

Internet disruptions have compounded the crisis. Monitoring group NetBlocks recorded widespread restrictions on internet access across Iran for at least 18 days, a move widely seen as an effort by the regime to limit organizing and prevent images of the crackdown from reaching the outside world.

The intelligence picture is further complicated by signs of growing dissent within Iran’s own governing apparatus.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported Sunday that a rising number of Iranian officials have begun leaking confidential information about the regime’s violent response to protests — an unusual development that analysts view as a signal of internal fractures.

Two Iranian officials briefed on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s directives told The New York Times that security forces were ordered to suppress protests at all costs, including using live ammunition and showing “no mercy.” That account directly conflicts with Tehran’s official messaging, which has sought to downplay the scale of violence.

Two senior Iranian officials told TIME that as many as 30,000 people may have been killed during a two-day period in early January — between Jan. 8 and Jan. 9 — a figure that starkly contrasts with Iran’s official claim at a U.N. Human Rights Council meeting last week that total deaths stood at 3,117.

While U.S. intelligence agencies are cautious about predicting regime collapse, officials familiar with the assessments say the scale of unrest, the apparent use of extreme force, and signs of dissent within Iran’s elite all point to a regime under unprecedented strain.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)