A New York Times/Siena College poll has uncovered a notable shift in sentiment among supporters of former President Donald J. Trump, with nearly a quarter of Trump’s own backers believe he should not be the Republican nominee for president next year if he is found guilty of a crime. Despite enjoying a significant lead among Republican candidates for the presidential nomination, the poll indicates that Trump’s legal troubles could impact his support base.
Trump, facing four criminal cases, has framed the prosecutions as political persecution by Democrats and President Biden. However, the poll suggests that if he were found guilty, a substantial minority of his supporters might reconsider their support, even if he wins the primary contest.
Interestingly, 20% of self-identified Trump supporters said he should go to prison if convicted in the federal case in Washington, where he is accused of plotting to overturn the 2020 election. Additionally, 23% believe that Trump has committed “serious federal crimes,” a significant increase from 11% in July.
The poll was conducted before the Colorado Supreme Court’s ruling on Tuesday that disqualified Trump from the Republican primary ballot in the state under the 14th Amendment, which bars those involved in insurrections from holding office.
The findings highlight the importance of Trump’s legal strategy to delay his trials, particularly the federal election interference case in Washington, scheduled to start in early March. Trump is also facing other legal challenges, including a federal case in Florida over classified documents, a Manhattan case related to hush money payments, and a racketeering conspiracy charge in Georgia.
Trump has consistently labeled these cases as political “witch hunts,” a sentiment echoed by 84% of his supporters and 46% of all registered voters surveyed, indicating a strong belief among Trump’s base that the charges are politically motivated.
However, Trump’s approach to the criminal cases, contrasted with his history of delay tactics in civil litigation, may have broader implications. Some advisers have suggested that the Justice Department could drop the cases should he be re-elected. They also believe that it would be constitutionally challenging for state cases to proceed against a sitting president.
Delaying the trials could prevent voters from hearing detailed evidence against Trump before the election. This is particularly significant for the election interference case, as its postponement could mean that many Americans would not be aware of the specifics of Trump’s attempts to influence the last election before considering him for office again in 2024.
Previous polls have shown mixed reactions to Trump’s actions post-2020 election, with 51% of swing state voters, including 13% of Trump’s supporters, believing he threatened democracy. Most of Trump’s supporters in battleground states indicated continued support even if convicted, but approximately 6% said they would switch their votes to Biden, potentially enough to influence the election outcome.
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6 Responses
The poll is conducted by the New York Times which is a left wing newspaper (unlike in the late 19th and most of the 20th centuries, when it was a respected middle of the road “newspaper of record” – a role now filled by the Wall Street Journal).
It is unlikely that many Trump supporters will vote for Biden. If the legal harassment of Trump did convince him to drop out, he would probably endorse the Republican most likely to win by a landslide, and take control of Congress, which would change the laws (e.g. definition of insurrection, repeal sedition laws, decriminalize violations of document handling regulations, etc.) – which would be bad news for Biden since the polls says that but for Trump, Biden is facing the prospect of a loss no incumbent president has managed since Herbert Hoover in 1932.
The headline is backwards. This is what the headline should of been:
“3 in 4 Trump Supporters say Trump Should Run Even if Convicted”
HEADLINES SHOULD READ:
75% OF VOTERS SAY HE SHOULD RUN
New York Times. How’s Russia Russia Russia doing
The real surprise is why it’s not 4 out of 4
It is clear that the protests of Jan 6 did not arise to anything close to the definition of an “insurrection” and, hence, the allegations based on that claim are patently bogus. Indeed, there may well be prosecutorial misconduct that should in turn be prosecuted.
None of the allegations against Trump in the Democrats’ various proceedings against him, if leading to a trial court conviction in the Democratic Party jurisdictions, would likely survive the appeals process. These cases appear to be political persecutions rather than legitimate prosecutions.