Former President Donald Trump’s lead in Nate Silver’s electoral forecast model continues to expand as the 2024 presidential race progresses. Last Thursday, Trump emerged as the slight favorite in the race against Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3. Since then, Trump’s chances have increased further, according to updates to Silver’s model.

Last week, Trump held a 52.4% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 47.3%. By Wednesday, Trump’s odds had grown to 58.2%, while Harris’s chances dropped to 41.6%. Nate Silver noted on X that Harris has been receiving “a lot of mediocre state polls lately” and added that “the chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%.”

Silver attributed much of Trump’s improving position to his gains in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, where Harris hasn’t led in recent polls. Silver also highlighted Michigan as a growing challenge for Harris’s campaign.

While Silver has expressed a personal preference for Harris to win, he acknowledged that her campaign faces hurdles. He commented that he might be more optimistic about Harris’s prospects if her team hadn’t “rehired so many of the Biden people” and noted that the enthusiasm following Biden’s dropout may not have been sustained. He also suggested that bypassing Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for a key role may have been a misstep for the Harris campaign.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)