Former President Donald Trumps lead in Nate Silvers electoral forecast model continues to expand as the 2024 presidential race progresses. Last Thursday, Trump emerged as the slight favorite in the race against Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3. Since then, Trumps chances have increased further, according to updates to Silvers model.
Last week, Trump held a 52.4% chance of winning, compared to Harriss 47.3%. By Wednesday, Trumps odds had grown to 58.2%, while Harriss chances dropped to 41.6%. Nate Silver noted on X that Harris has been receiving “a lot of mediocre state polls lately” and added that the chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%.
Silver attributed much of Trumps improving position to his gains in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, where Harris hasnt led in recent polls. Silver also highlighted Michigan as a growing challenge for Harriss campaign.
While Silver has expressed a personal preference for Harris to win, he acknowledged that her campaign faces hurdles. He commented that he might be more optimistic about Harriss prospects if her team hadnt rehired so many of the Biden people and noted that the enthusiasm following Bidens dropout may not have been sustained. He also suggested that bypassing Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for a key role may have been a misstep for the Harris campaign.
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