CNN’s top elections analyst issued a blistering alert to Republicans on Thursday, pointing to fresh polling data showing Democrats holding a sharp and historically unusual advantage heading into the 2026 midterms.

The warning came from CNN data guru Harry Enten, who detailed numbers from a new Marquette University Law School poll that he said “didn’t pick up enough coverage” despite what he called “truly frightening” implications for the GOP.

Enten began by noting that Democrats currently lead Republicans by five points on the generic congressional ballot, a number that already matches the polling average.

But the real alarm, Enten said, emerges when looking at respondents certain to vote.

“Among those certain to vote, the Democratic advantage nearly doubles,” Enten warned. “We’re talking about a nine-point advantage… That is A-plus. Two thumbs up. Great news for Democrats.”

The surge reflects soaring Democratic enthusiasm — a critical factor because midterms depend as heavily on turnout as persuasion.

Anchor Sara Sidner asked whether this surge in Democratic enthusiasm is unusual.

“This does not match what we see historically,” Enten replied.

He presented data reviewing midpoint polls from six previous midterm cycles. From 2006 through 2022, Republicans consistently reported a higher intent to vote at this stage of the cycle.

But in 2025, that pattern appears to have shattered.

Enten attributed the shift to changing voter demographics, emphasizing that the Democratic coalition is increasingly dominated by college-educated voters — a bloc more likely to participate in elections.

“The idea that Democrats are more certain to vote is a new phenomenon. This suggests there’s a hidden Democratic advantage in the polls right now.”

Sidner pressed further, asking whether there’s additional evidence that early polling could be underestimating Democrats.

Enten pointed to recent real-world results.

“We just had a test… a few weeks ago in Virginia and New Jersey.”

He said the polls consistently underestimated Democratic support, including in New Jersey, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill was underpolled by 8 points, and Virginia, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger outperformed polls by 5 points.

Enten stressed that the miss — the biggest polling gap in those states for any off-year election this century — is a red flag for Republicans banking on voter frustration to swing 2026 in their favor.

Enten summarized the threat: “Republicans should be running scared. Democrats should be ecstatic because if this polling holds, it will be a huge November 2026 for Democrats.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)