Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was killed in an IDF-attributed strike in Syria last week along with six other IRGC officers.

According to the Entekhab newspaper, quoted by Iran International, Tehran has four possible ways to respond to Israel.

The first option is one that the US warned Israel about last week: targeting Israel directly with a wave of suicide drones or cruise missiles.

A second option is attacking an Israeli embassy or consulate. However, according to Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, who spoke at a media event last week, the likelihood of Iran choosing this option is low, despite the fact that it carried out attacks against Israeli embassies in the past. According to Yadlin, Iran wants to carry out a more impressive attack. Additionally, an attack on an embassy requires violating the sovereignty of a third country and requires significant planning time.

The third option is carrying out an indirect attack against Israel by allowing its regional proxies to target Israeli military bases and other significant sites.

The fourth option is refraining from any immediate response to avoid an all-out war with Israel, which could also invite an American response. The Entekhab article concludes that Iran is adopting this fourth option.

Instead, Iran “will adopt strategic patience, engaging in a war of psychological attrition against Israel, while preserving its military power.” This view is consistent with many statements made by high-ranking Iranian officials who warn of ‘falling into Israel’s trap’ of getting entangled in a regional war.

Yigal Carmon, the former counter-terrorism advisor to two Israeli Prime Ministers, told Iran International: “Iran is not ready nor willing to have a direct total war with Israel. Therefore even a direct Iranian attack on an Israeli embassy abroad is not probable.”

Carmon, who is the president and founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), added, “Khamenei’s policies over the years show a combination of caution and cowardice. Iran’s reactions to Israeli and American attacks in the past show a pattern of escalation when they believe the adversary is weak. And they back down when they see their adversary is strong and shows deterrence, and is ready for war.”

Tehran-born Ben Sabti, an expert on Iran from the Israeli National Security and Strategy Institute, told Iran International: “My assessment is that Iran won’t attack Israel directly, because there is not any use in it.”

He said that “anything that Iran can do, their proxies can do too, so why will Iran, which has kept itself out of the war until now, suddenly should throw itself into the conflict.”

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)