According to a Kadima poll, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will most likely take the party leadership race in the first round, now showing a 20% lead over the number two candidate, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz.

With less than two weeks before the election, most analysts agree that Livni�s success is all but guaranteed.

While Mofaz is viewed as more experienced and more organized, it will be most difficult for him to close in on the current 20% lead that Livni has over him. In the last poll, two weeks earlier, he was only trailing by 13%. The third and fourth place contenders, Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit and Public Security Minister Avi Dichter trail with a combined 11% of the vote.

A Haaretz-Channel 10 News poll conducted by Dialogue Institute shows that if there is a second round run-off vote, Livni will maintain her 20% lead over Mofaz.

The poll, which included 704 registered Kadima voters, shows an amazing 28% are yet �undecided� so in actuality, there could be a swing in a different direction. On the other hand, if a small number of the �undecided� camp votes for Livni, she will take the election in round one on 17 September.

Livni leads Mofaz with almost twice the support among the party�s Arab sector; she leads among male voters by 11% and among female voters, leads 44% to Mofaz�s 14%.

(Yechiel Spira � YWN Israel)