Iran’s leadership is accelerating its secretive plans to name a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following escalating military threats from Israel and the United States. Five sources close to the process told Reuters that a previously quiet succession committee, appointed by Khamenei himself in 2023, has shifted into high gear amid rising fears for the 86-year-old leader’s safety.

Khamenei and his family have reportedly gone into hiding under heavy protection by the elite Vali-ye Amr unit of the Revolutionary Guards, after Israel threatened to assassinate him and the U.S. struck Iran’s nuclear infrastructure over the weekend.

The urgency reflects not only Khamenei’s advanced age but also the dramatic shift in Iran’s geopolitical position. With its nuclear facilities under attack and top Revolutionary Guard commanders killed in recent weeks, the Islamic Republic is facing one its most grave internal and external challenges in decades.

According to insiders, two main candidates have emerged in the leadership transition:

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, son of the Supreme Leader and a mid-ranking cleric, is seen as a “continuity candidate.” Though never officially appointed to any government post, he has long exerted influence behind the scenes as a gatekeeper to his father.

Hassan Khomeini, 53, the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder, is viewed as a potential “moderate” figure. Aligned with Iran’s reformist factions, he could serve as a more palatable face both at home and abroad, though hardliners remain wary of his political leanings.

Sources say the regime is divided between preserving ideological purity and selecting a leader who might defuse growing domestic unrest and international pressure. Khomeini’s more conciliatory tone has gained traction in recent weeks, especially after he publicly pledged loyalty to Khamenei just hours before U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program.

While the constitution states that the Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics elected through a highly controlled process, in practice, the decision is heavily shaped by the Revolutionary Guards and a small circle of trusted advisers.

Officially, Khamenei has never endorsed any successor, and in previous private discussions he reportedly opposed his son’s candidacy, fearing comparisons to monarchical hereditary rule—precisely what Iran’s 1979 revolution overthrew.

Complicating matters, many of the formerly presumed contenders have died in recent years, including former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi and former President Ebrahim Raisi. Others, like cleric Sadegh Amoli Larijani, have lost favor or influence.

U.S. President Donald Trump has openly threatened Khamenei, writing on social media, “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target.”

Analysts say the military pressure has reshaped Iran’s internal power dynamics. With key members of the Revolutionary Guards dead and the regime under threat, the decision about who will lead next could define the Islamic Republic’s future.

“This is a moment of reckoning,” said Hossein Rassam, a London-based political analyst. “Whether the Islamic Republic survives or not, it will be a very different one. The context in which it has existed for decades is vanishing.”

Whoever is chosen may not wield the same uncontested authority that Khamenei has enjoyed for more than 30 years. Some insiders speculate that a weaker, less visible cleric might be installed as a puppet figure under Revolutionary Guards control—especially if public trust in the regime continues to erode.

“The regime may opt for someone unknown, someone manageable,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “But whoever it is, Iran’s supreme leadership will never look the same.”

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