U.S. intelligence believes that China is preparing to deliver shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran within the coming weeks, according to three CNN sources. Such a move would mark a significant escalation in Beijing’s support for Tehran and complicate an already fragile ceasefire.

The systems in question are MANPADs, man-portable air defense missiles that posed a persistent threat to low-flying U.S. aircraft throughout the five-week war. Two of the sources said Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to obscure their origin.

Trump warned of consequences Saturday when asked about the intelligence. “If China does that, China will have big problems, OK?” he said as he departed the White House for Florida. He did not say whether he had raised the issue directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he is set to meet in Beijing early next month.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington denied the report. “China has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict; the information in question is untrue,” a spokesperson said, adding that Beijing “consistently fulfills its international obligations” and calling on the U.S. to “refrain from making baseless allegations.”

The intelligence comes days after China claimed credit for helping broker the ceasefire that paused the conflict earlier this week, and raises questions about whether Iran is using the pause to rearm with the help of foreign partners.

The potential transfer would represent a new threshold in Chinese involvement. While Chinese companies have continued selling Iran sanctioned dual-use technology, direct government-to-government weapons transfers would go considerably further. Sources said Beijing views air defense systems as defensively oriented, distinguishing its support from that of Russia, which has been sharing intelligence with Iran to help it target U.S. troops and assets throughout the war.

One source said China sees no strategic value in overtly entering the conflict, but is working to preserve its relationship with Tehran — a critical supplier of sanctioned oil — while maintaining enough deniability to emerge from the war with its neutrality intact.

The F-15 recently shot down over Iran may already be connected to the issue. Trump said Monday the jet was downed by “a handheld shoulder missile, a heat-seeking missile,” and Iran claimed it used a “new” air defense system — though whether that system was Chinese-made remains unclear.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)