President Donald Trump is holding off on authorizing U.S. airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear sites, amid growing concerns that toppling Iran’s leadership could plunge the region into chaos and repeat the mistakes of Libya, the NY Post reports.
According to multiple sources close to the administration, Trump has repeatedly invoked the NATO-led intervention in Libya during internal deliberations, citing it as a cautionary tale of regime change gone wrong. In 2011, the U.S. joined a coalition to remove Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, only to watch the country descend into civil war and lawlessness — a scenario Trump is determined to avoid with Iran.
“He doesn’t want it to turn into Libya,” said one insider familiar with the president’s thinking. “The concern is: if Khamenei falls, what comes next?”
That apprehension has played a major role in Trump’s decision to delay a final call on whether to assist Israel in striking Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Thursday that the president would likely make his decision within the next two weeks, citing the potential for renewed diplomatic talks.
“There is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future,” Leavitt said during a briefing. “The president is weighing that very seriously.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to meet with European diplomats in Geneva on Friday. While Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff will not attend, he continues to engage in backchannel talks, Leavitt said.
While the Israeli government has made clear its desire for regime change — with Defense Minister Yisrael Katz calling Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “the modern Hitler” — Trump’s calculus is different.
“He’s not interested in who runs Iran,” said one source close to the White House. “That’s a message his base appreciates — it’s about preventing a nuclear weapon, not remaking Iran.”
According to one source briefed on the internal discussions, Trump has expressed a preference for a narrowly tailored operation using U.S. bunker-buster bombs — 30,000-pound munitions capable of penetrating the underground Fordow site, something Israeli warplanes can’t currently achieve on their own.
“This would not be Libya. This would not be Iraq,” the source said. “The goal is simple: knock out Iran’s nuclear capability and leave.”
Still, even a limited strike carries risks. Officials have warned that any U.S. military action could provoke Iranian retaliation, including terror attacks, regional proxy warfare, or attempts to block shipping in the Persian Gulf. There are also fears of radioactive contamination from destroyed enrichment sites.
“He’d rather have a deal,” said one adviser, echoing Trump’s longstanding reluctance to launch new military interventions. “But he also doesn’t want to let the window close.”
CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly compared Iran’s current nuclear position to a football team sitting on the one-yard line — “You don’t get that close unless you’re planning to score,” he told officials, according to a source familiar with the meeting.
Ratcliffe and others have noted Iran’s uranium stockpile is enriched to 60% — a short technical leap from the 90% threshold needed for weapons-grade fuel. The International Atomic Energy Agency and U.S. Central Command have each warned that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in as little as one week.
General Michael Kurilla testified this month that Iran could produce up to 10 weapons’ worth of material within three weeks, if it initiated a full sprint toward a nuclear arsenal.
Trump’s reluctance is shaped by more than just the present. He has also referenced U.S. failures in Iraq and Afghanistan in recent conversations, sources said — but Libya remains the most resonant comparison in his mind.
“He keeps talking about what happened to Gaddafi,” said one source who heard the president raise the issue before Israel’s bombing campaign began. “There’s a fear that if the regime collapses, we’re left with something worse.”
Indeed, Libya’s fall triggered a decade of instability: terrorist beheadings, open-air slave markets, and uncontrolled migration across the Mediterranean. Trump fears a similar fate in Iran, where Supreme Leader Khamenei has ruled for 35 years.
“What happens if Khamenei falls and a power vacuum opens? Who fills it?” one administration source asked. “The president doesn’t want to be blamed for what comes next.”
(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)