Zohran Mamdani is proving nearly impossible to shake.

A new Siena Research/New York Times survey finds that the socialist assemblyman would still beat former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in November’s general election, even if the crowded four-way field somehow collapsed into a one-on-one showdown. Mamdani leads Cuomo 48% to 44% in a hypothetical head-to-head, the poll shows.

That scenario depends on two major “ifs”: Mayor Eric Adams and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa exiting the race. Absent that, Mamdani dominates a fractured field. In a four-way contest, the Queens progressive pulls 46% of likely voters. Cuomo lags far behind at 24%, while Sliwa and Adams trail at 15% and 9% respectively.

“The big question is what happens if Adams and Sliwa are out,” said Siena poll director Don Levy. “Cuomo would capture most of their support and consolidate older voters. But right now, Mamdani is in control of this race.”

Cuomo, running as an independent after losing June’s Democratic primary, has yet to find traction. Adams, also pursuing an independent line, is rumored to be eyeing a federal role — with Trump officials reportedly exploring ways to ease him off the ballot. Sliwa, meanwhile, insists he’s not going anywhere, swatting down chatter about a potential Trump administration appointment.

Mamdani, who has built his campaign on affordability, rent freezes and taxing the wealthy, hasn’t cracked 50% in any survey. But the issues are breaking his way. Nearly half of voters say he’s best positioned to address affordability. A plurality — 43% — trust him most on Gaza, despite his sharp criticism of Israel. And nearly 70% back his plan to freeze rents on New York’s million rent-stabilized apartments, while more than 70% favor higher taxes on the city’s richest households.

“Mamdani holds a huge lead among younger voters, while voters 45 and older are split between him and Cuomo,” Levy said. “Unless the field changes dramatically, Mamdani is positioned to ride that coalition straight to Gracie Mansion.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)