The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing its most existential threat in decades as a two-week-old uprising has paralyzed the country, with experts warning that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may have less than two weeks left in power.

Activists confirmed Sunday that the death toll from the state’s crackdown has reached at least 538, though the true number is feared to be much higher due to a nationwide internet blackout. Despite the communication cut, footage of fiery clashes continues to leak out, showing protesters confronting security forces in every province, including Khamenei’s own hometown of Mashhad.

Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer on the Iran desk, told The New York Post that the window for the regime to regain control is closing rapidly. “I suspect the Supreme Leader’s got about a week, two weeks max,” Gerecht said. He noted that as crowds swell into the hundreds of thousands, the regime’s enforcers, including the Basij paramilitary units, may reach a breaking point and crack under the pressure.

Dissident Ali Reza Nourizadeh concurred, describing the leadership in Tehran as paralyzed. “They’re almost collapsed. They cannot make a decision,” he said.

The current unrest follows the dramatic U.S. military raid on January 3, 2026, that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. That operation has reportedly sent shockwaves through the Iranian leadership. Experts say regime insiders are terrified that President Trump will repeat the “Venezuelan model” in Iran, potentially targeting Khamenei’s compound or hiding places.

“They are really frightened that Trump will do something,” Nourizadeh said. President Trump intensified those fears this weekend, posting on Truth Social: “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”

The White House is reportedly weighing several military options, including: Direct strikes on military targets in response to the shooting of protesters; Cyberattacks to disable the regime’s command and control; and Targeted strikes on high-level officials to encourage military defections.

The regime’s vulnerability is compounded by the “12-Day War” in June. During that conflict, U.S. and Israeli strikes “completely and totally obliterated” much of Iran’s air defense and nuclear infrastructure. The humiliation of that defeat has reportedly eroded Khamenei’s authority among younger hardliners and the social base.

While there have been no confirmed signs of high-level military defections yet, rumors are circulating that some regime insiders are attempting to contact Washington to negotiate a post-Khamenei future. Amid the chaos, Reza Pahlavi—the son of the former Shah—has offered himself as a transitional figure for a return to democracy.

“Nostalgia is on overdrive right now,” Gerecht noted, as many protesters have been heard chanting “Pahlavi will return” in the streets of Tehran.The Trump administration has warned Iranian leadership: “You better not start shooting because we’ll start shooting too.”

Whether the regime will heed the warning or double down on its “bloody crackdown” remains the pivotal question for the week ahead.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)