New York�s Democratic stronghold may be on the verge of a political earthquake.

A new poll from the Manhattan Institute released Tuesday shows Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik narrowly edging out Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race � a stunning result that, if borne out, would mark the first GOP lead in a statewide poll in over a decade.

According to the survey of 600 likely voters, Stefanik received 43% support to Hochul�s 42%, with 9% opting for �someone else� and 7% undecided � well within the poll�s 3% margin of error, but nonetheless signaling that Hochul�s grip on power is slipping fast.

The poll is the latest sign of mounting voter frustration with Hochul�s leadership � particularly following her controversial decision to endorse socialist mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani, a move that has alienated moderates and law-and-order Democrats.

Hochul, who is seeking reelection in 2026, remains deeply unpopular among key constituencies, especially independents and suburban voters. Stefanik leads the governor 46% to 33% among independents and 54% to 37% on Long Island, according to the poll.

Hochul fared better in the Hudson Valley, leading Stefanik 45% to 36%, but trailed badly among voters aged 50 and older � a demographic critical to statewide victory.

Hochul�s campaign quickly dismissed the results, noting the poll�s origin from a right-leaning think tank.

�You�ve got to hand it to Sellout Stefanik,� Hochul spokesperson Sarafina Chitka said in a blistering statement. �When her own polls don�t reflect reality, she can count on Trump and his megadonors � like Betsy DeVos and Paul Singer � to repeat her lies. Unfortunately for her, New Yorkers aren�t interested in letting an unhinged Trump enabler anywhere near the Governor�s mansion.�

Stefanik�s camp, by contrast, celebrated the results as proof that the political tide in deep-blue New York is turning.

�New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul�s failed single-party Democrat rule,� Stefanik spokesperson Bernadette Breslin said.

Breslin added that Hochul�s endorsement of Mamdani � whom she called a �Defund the Police, tax-hiking, raging antisemite socialist� � �will go down as one of the most self-destructive decisions in New York political history.�

New York GOP Chair Ed Cox echoed that sentiment: �Under Kathy Hochul and one-party Democrat rule, New York has become the most taxed, most regulated, least free state in America. The message is clear: New Yorkers want change � and next year they�ll get it.�

While other recent polls have shown Hochul maintaining a lead � Siena College had her up 25 points in September and 14 points in August � Stefanik�s growing visibility as a national GOP firebrand and staunch Trump ally has injected fresh energy into New York�s moribund Republican base.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)