New York’s Democratic stronghold may be on the verge of a political earthquake.

A new poll from the Manhattan Institute released Tuesday shows Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik narrowly edging out Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race — a stunning result that, if borne out, would mark the first GOP lead in a statewide poll in over a decade.

According to the survey of 600 likely voters, Stefanik received 43% support to Hochul’s 42%, with 9% opting for “someone else” and 7% undecided — well within the poll’s 3% margin of error, but nonetheless signaling that Hochul’s grip on power is slipping fast.

The poll is the latest sign of mounting voter frustration with Hochul’s leadership — particularly following her controversial decision to endorse socialist mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani, a move that has alienated moderates and law-and-order Democrats.

Hochul, who is seeking reelection in 2026, remains deeply unpopular among key constituencies, especially independents and suburban voters. Stefanik leads the governor 46% to 33% among independents and 54% to 37% on Long Island, according to the poll.

Hochul fared better in the Hudson Valley, leading Stefanik 45% to 36%, but trailed badly among voters aged 50 and older — a demographic critical to statewide victory.

Hochul’s campaign quickly dismissed the results, noting the poll’s origin from a right-leaning think tank.

“You’ve got to hand it to Sellout Stefanik,” Hochul spokesperson Sarafina Chitka said in a blistering statement. “When her own polls don’t reflect reality, she can count on Trump and his megadonors — like Betsy DeVos and Paul Singer — to repeat her lies. Unfortunately for her, New Yorkers aren’t interested in letting an unhinged Trump enabler anywhere near the Governor’s mansion.”

Stefanik’s camp, by contrast, celebrated the results as proof that the political tide in deep-blue New York is turning.

“New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single-party Democrat rule,” Stefanik spokesperson Bernadette Breslin said.

Breslin added that Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani — whom she called a “Defund the Police, tax-hiking, raging antisemite socialist” — “will go down as one of the most self-destructive decisions in New York political history.”

New York GOP Chair Ed Cox echoed that sentiment: “Under Kathy Hochul and one-party Democrat rule, New York has become the most taxed, most regulated, least free state in America. The message is clear: New Yorkers want change — and next year they’ll get it.”

While other recent polls have shown Hochul maintaining a lead — Siena College had her up 25 points in September and 14 points in August — Stefanik’s growing visibility as a national GOP firebrand and staunch Trump ally has injected fresh energy into New York’s moribund Republican base.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)