While it will take hours until the final tabulation of the general election is announced, according to all exit polls, Kadima has won in an extremely small margin in an election upset to Likud and Binyamin Netanyahu, who at one point was in the lead by 12 seats.

What is significant however is that at present, it appears the majority of the parties may still recommend to President Shimon Peres to hand the mandate to form a coalition government to Netanyahu, which will leave the president in a predicament since traditionally, this mandate is handed to the largest party, however in this case, the difference may be as little as one or two seats. Even if Peres wishes to hand the mandate to another party, if Kadima has the most seats, it has a legal precedent to demand the mandate, and according to some legal experts, perhaps even a strong case to bring before the High Court of Justice.

Other options include the president calling on the two to establish a national coalition government, or even a rotation government, which has been seen in the past.

As was expected, Yisrael Beitenu will play a major role in the coalition talks and will have a major say regarding who receives the presidential mandate.

What is also certain is that in all likelihood, the government that will be formed in the coming weeks will lack a modicum of stability, with the ruling party(ies) compelled to make many concessions to hold a cabinet together, which once again points to another government that may not live out a four year term. In the past 20 years, the average term of a government has been 2.5 years.

If Livni does indeed have more seats than Likud, YWN predicts the president will give her the mandate, even if her lead is by a single seat, but her success in establishing a government is somewhat questionable, especially with a right-wing majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)