Maricopa county audit

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  • #2012225
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    ” A handful of cases of fraud … have been found.”

    “The fact remains… they have not found a single case of definite fraud.”

    oh…ok

    #2012239

    Yserbius- You’ve repeatedly said comments along the lines of “OK that’s fine for Maricopa, but what about the other counties?”. Let me ask, what in the world are you talking about?? Yes of course if as you say “If nothing is found in Maricopa which, if memory serves correctly, has over half the votes of the entire Arizona, the likelihood of 10,000 fraudulent votes being “found” in the other districts is astronomically low.” I 100% agree with that, that’s what I’ve said in the beginning and that’s never changed. Now if you scroll through this thread, you and I were discussing not the validity of cyber ninjas claims, but the mathematics of it, and what level of impact it might have on the results. You seem to have been saying that cyber ninjas result “found nothing” because even according to CN’s numbers, the gap wouldn’t close much. I’ve been responding to that that doesn’t matter because fraud is fraud no matter who’s ballots it impacted. And if we see that fraud was committed, we should audit everywhere else. Then you shifted to arguing that the actual claims are meaningless. I’ve said repeatedly, along these lines “now frankly I’m not sure what to make of any of it as I don’t understand the processes”…and Ive also said that this that I’m referring to these ballots as “bad” is for arguments sake.

    #2012270
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    Torahval, what you are saying makes no sense. Every election has some fraud, so the only way we can rely on a electiio is if posit that fraud did not affect the election.

    #2012302

    Reb E not sure what point your making, yes, the only way we can rely on an election is if we are positive that fraud did not affect the outcome. So?

    #2012433
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    torahval, if fraud is commited, we should audit anywhere else.
    Ein ledavar saf. You audit the place of fraud if fraud is rampant.

    #2012521
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty Both of my original arguments still stand. It’s pretty obvious that this is not fraud but a common and expected error. You don’t need to understand the process to understand that a mass mailing that gets 2% of the addresses wrong isn’t indicative of anything.

    #2012655

    Yserbius-I’m not sure what “both of your original arguments” are. So fine, it’s expected that 2% of ballots will be sent to the wrong address. But should they still count as votes? Maybe yes, maybe no, but that’s not what I was ever debating…

    #2012866
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty Yes the votes should still count. So do you agree with me that the audit did not find any fraud now?

    My two arguments are what you referred to in your previous comment.

    1. The Cyber Ninjas claims show nothing because the voter gap doesn’t change
    2. The findings are pretty meaningless as they show a possible human error, not fraud

    What you are saying, in essence, is that there should be an insanely high, near impossible to reach, standard for elections. That after every election there should be a months long audit of everything and if any computer is on the fritz, ballot sent to a guy who moved last week, ballot sent without a middle name, etc. then they should be disqualified. With the end result of pretty much nothing since the errors would be evenly distributed across party lines and not changing the results.

    #2012922

    Yserbius-If indeed the all votes brought up by CN do count, then great, the audit was a success, money well spent and I’m much more confident in the 2020 result. But I prefer to wait and see how the Arizona AG deals with the results. Because as I’ve said, I don’t understand the processes, and I’m sorry but I’m not going to blindly accept your at-least-a-little biased take on it.

    #2013074
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty What part of the process is confusing to you?

    Don’t you see how your claims have changed? You’ve gone from “Fraud was proven to be committed to the extent that Trump had 20,000 more votes than Biden in AZ” to “Fraud was possibly committed so we have to do more investigation” to “I’m just going to assume fraud was committed until proven otherwise” to now where your story is “I don’t understand the process so I’ll wait for the experts. No, not those experts. No, not those either. No, those are the wrong politicians”

    #2013075
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty My point is that can’t you at least admit that your assumptions and initial readings of the situation were wrong and perhaps clouded by at-least-a-little bias?

    #2013096

    Yserbius, Hmm, why can’t I find those supposed quotes of mine when I search all my replies on the forum?…again there you go putting words in my mouth. My position has always remained constant. No i’m not waiting for any Cnn-proclaimed “expert”, nor am I waiting for any politician on either side of the aisle. I’m waiting to see how the AG’s prosecution holds up in court, when CN’s and Maricopa County are forced to have legitimate answers for each other. What part of the process is confusing me? None because I haven’t bothered to learn the process, and we both know how easy it can be for any “expert” to put some words together that makes sense, and is enough to convince a layman. The only way I feel I can really understand is if I see CN and Maricopa County have a back and forth conversation. I barely have enough time in my day to type these posts, I have no particular interest in studying Arizona’s election laws and processes.

    #2013103

    Yserbius I don’t think like you said that I ever made claims such as “Fraud was proven to be committed to the extent that Trump had 20,000 more votes than Biden in AZ”, but yes, based on some statistical anomalies, I would be a little surprised if the election was 100% legit, and yes, I was surprised by CN’s hand recount. As I see it now, as i’ve said,at this point I want to see how the audit results are handled.

    #2013240
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty Brnovich already responded with a non-response. He’s doing the same thing that the Cyber Ninjas did for months, claiming that the mountain of data and information that they have (which shows exactly zero evidence of fraud) isn’t enough because it’s missing a molehill or two. Since AG Brnovich is the one who fought to get this audit done in the first place, he’s an extremely biased party and not exactly the first source I would turn to.

    #2013334
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty Not to get personal, but you mentioned seeing “statistical anomalies” yet in previous comments you made blatant errors in basic statistics, such as confusing the population data with the sample data (AZ and Maricopa), and putting significance on a difference that’s way within confidence levels (less than 5% difference in one batch bad ballots). So excuse me for being blunt, but what exactly are these “statistical anomalies” and how do you know you aren’t just making another mathematical error.

    #2013425

    Yserbius “Not to get personal” *gets personal* Lol that’s fine, im not insulted, but if your going to make a personal attack, at least own it. Now I wasn’t referring to number-crunching statistical anomalies, although there are probably many of those, I can copy paste if you want, I was simply referring to stats such as Trump winning 18/19 Bellwether counties. I don’t think the bar for an audit should be set high at all, which is why I wanted this Maricopa audit to go through.

    #2013670
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty “There are lies, filthy lies, and statistics”. That’s the problem, it’s all what you call “number-crunching”. Like what makes a Bellwether county, how significant is winning it, and can we infer anything at all or is it just a media hype? Do you know any accountants, preferably those involved in auditing? Maybe a statistician or data scientist? They can definitely explain your questions and concerns a lot better than I can. B’kitzur, you can’t just base major ideas on a few memes that show something claiming to be significant when the reality is way more complicated. Otherwise we’d all be calling Israel a genocidal colonial racist regime.

    You say that the bar for an audit should not be set high, but this is in a thread where you defend throwing out any ballot that was sent to an address where the individual recently moved out of. That’s not just high, that’s astronomical.

    #2013737

    What makes a bellwether county a bellwether county? Google it. From my understanding, it’s strange for winner of the election to not win the majority of the bellwether counties, let alone win just 1/19.
    -“You say that the bar for an audit should not be set high, but this is in a thread where you defend throwing out any ballot that was sent to an address where the individual recently moved out of. That’s not just high, that’s astronomical.” There you again putting words into my mouth, I said I don’t understand Arizona’s laws and processes so I don’t know if it should have, but IF according to election law it shouldn’t be counted, are you saying it should have despite Arizona law? And I have no clue what this has to do with setting the bar for initiating audits anyway.

    #2013901
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty I know what a Bellwether county is, that’s not my point. The question is whether 18 out of 19 wrong means anything. Any half-baked statistician or accountant can tell you that you’re always going to find statistical anomalies in large amounts of real world data. But you have to have an understand of what that data is to know which things are important and which aren’t. Over here, you can glance over at the article on FiveThirtyEight titled “Where did all the Bellwether Counties Go?” which explains in greater detail. For instance, for the last 36 years, every time a Bellwether County voted against the winner, they were dropped from the list. So it’s kind of meaningless data since it’s been changed so many times to fit a result, it’s kind of like saying “Every time Rockland County voted Republican, the Republican won except when they voted Democrat”.

    And speaking of FiveThirtyEight, they’ve been writing comprehensive statistical analysis and predictions of political elections for years. For presidential elections they predict by county with a small margin of error. And every election since 2008, including 2020, has been well within that margin (even 2016 when CNN was saying that Clinton has a 99% chance, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance based on him winning specific counties, which he did). So if you want to leave things to the experts, they certainly come to mind.

    There are two very simple questions that you’re not only ignoring, but also making extremely complicated for no reason: Was fraud committed because ballots were sent to the wrong address? Yes or no? Next question: Should every state delay counting for months and spend millions on security audits to squeeze out every possible issue with their ballots? Yes or no?

    #2013999
    philosopher
    Participant

    I found it surprising that so many states had Trump coming in ahead but in the last moment changing to a Biden win. I’ve heard many experts saying that is statistically impossible.

    #2014013

    Yserbius, “There are two very simple questions that you’re not only ignoring, but also making extremely complicated for no reason: Was fraud committed because ballots were sent to the wrong address? Yes or no?”-for the 1902154th time-I don’t know. “Should every state delay counting for months and spend millions on security audits to squeeze out every possible issue with their ballots? Yes or no?”-No but there should be a process where every ballot is easily verifiable and trackable.

    #2014185
    Health
    Participant

    Phil -“I found it surprising that so many states had Trump coming in ahead but in the last moment changing to a Biden win. I’ve heard many experts saying that is statistically impossible.”

    Actually in Lindell’s documentary this is one of the first things he talks about.
    Trump won the election & it wasn’t even close.

    But the taxpayers are doomed if you’re in the Middle Class (look at the Budget), but keep dreaming that we Cons lost both the Congress & the presidency.

    #2014268

    Health-If Lindell’s claims of vote switching was true, wouldn’t it have shown up in the Maricopa audit?

    #2014308
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty The Arizona AG, who is the only person you are relying on to interpret this audit, pretty much came out and said that the results don’t show fraud.

    To be honest, in this context I don’t like “I don’t know” as an answer. This whole thread has been about eagerly awaiting the audit results and what they show. As soon as they were releases, you and others were quick to jump on it and say that you believe the audit will confirm “tens of thousands” of votes were potentially fraudulent. Now, since we’ve unambiguously shown that it proves nothing of the kind, suddenly you back off with “Well, I don’t know…” as if the data that you’ve been consuming all this time is too complex to chap. (I mean, just last week you were explaining how the medias reporting that the audit showed Biden won was wrong) No, I don’t accept that.

    It may take a statistician to look at data and figure out if there’s something fishy their, but you don’t need to have a Gadol sized IQ to realize that a bunch of wrong addresses on a mass mailing are not indicative of anything.

    #2014323
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @philosopher Actually none of the situations where the vote flipped for Biden was unexpected, but it was one of the things that Guiliani and Trump’s team tried to use to prove fraud. In every case where Trump was winning a state, then the numbers flipped, it was because that’s when they started counting the votes from a major urban county that’s been Blue for decades. In one example, it was close but Trump was ahead, but flipped when they counted mail-in ballots which country-wide were much more Democrat than Republican (probably because the Republicans were specifically telling their constitutes to vote in person).

    #2014384

    yserbius-“The Arizona AG, who is the only person you are relying on to interpret this audit, pretty much came out and said that the results don’t show fraud.”-did he? Must’ve missed that.
    -I say I don’t know because we are still at the point that both sides claim to have “unanswerable questions”/or “answers”. I don’t know how to answer the questions shown in the report, I don’t know how to respond to Maricopa’s answers, and I don’t know how to respond to CN’s questions on Maricopa’s answers. Just for my basic understanding, how does a ballot sent to the wrong address get to the hands of the correct voter?
    -“I mean, just last week you were explaining how the medias reporting that the audit showed Biden won was wrong”. This has absolutely nothing to do, because A) The report claimed fraud, whether or not you agree with it or understand it, it in it’s own view put tens of thousands of ballots in question. If you think the claims are bogus, then you can report that too, but you don’t ignore it. B)The MSM actually reported the audit confirming bidens victory BEFORE the full report was released. It is obviously impossible to know all the details of the report before it comes out. But that didn’t stop the MSM from reporting the full fledged fake news.

    #2014394
    Health
    Participant

    TVOP -“Health-If Lindell’s claims of vote switching was true, wouldn’t it have shown up in the Maricopa audit?”

    Let me ask you something – did the audit see the paper ballots that were mailed in or just a copy?

    Anyways, most Republicans go in person.
    So it’s just a copy how they voted.
    So if the computer election machines were corrupted – then it’s just a copy of that Fake Vote!

    #2014601
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @torahvaluesoverparty The AZ AG has said that he needs more data to determine if fraud happened. In other words, there’s no evidence in this report that there was fraud, even for someone deeply invested and biased such as Mike Brnovich.

    After the report came out, the only response by pro-audit Republicans has been vague “it raises questions”. No one actually stated what those questions are and what would constitute an acceptable answer. So yeah, it looks like we are back to square one. Meaning that there’s no evidence of fraud so we have to conclude that the Maricopa election was fair. And all these mysterious “questions” are just more smoke screens with intent to sow mistrust.

    how does a ballot sent to the wrong address get to the hands of the correct voter?

    It wasn’t that they were sent to the wrong address, it’s that they were sent to an address that someone had moved from recently. Presumably, the new residents (or, in the case of people moving out of their parents house, their families) would just give them their mail.

    Can you explain how your propose this fraud would have worked? Like, hypothetically, if this was a case of fraud, what were the Democrats trying to gain by sending a random batch of ballots to the wrong people, (considering that the ballots were proportionately divided up into Democrats, Republicans, and others)?

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