Forum Replies Created
“don’t start talking about a shidduch crisis there are plenty of guys but the girls dont want them because they smoke.”
“and somehow these guys still find a way of getting married even with all the girls saying they dont want a guy who smokes”
Precisely BECAUSE of the shidduch crisis! Simple law of supply and demand.
(mods, I will keep the shidduch crisis discussion to the appropriate thread, but hey I didn’t bring it up here.)
We have given you a LOT of leeway with your posts in the other thread. Now you are just grandstanding and it is not viewed kindly.
What does G-D want is the question. There is no question that we need the leaders of our generation to guide and advise. Somehow, I don’t think having fewer children is the proper approach as that is pretty directly against HIS word.
As for encouraging more close in age shidduhim. That is very doable and effective, there should be no reason not to. Although some members of the CR seem very reluctant and don’t seem to get it, you clearly do.
The population explosion that has been experienced in recent years is far far greater than anything in recent history.
Here’s a simple question. Ask people that went to school in the 60’s and 70’s how many of their classmates had families with 10 children. It was almost unheard of. Nowadays especially in the right wing communities it is very commonplace.
mox: it was anonymiss who suggested the 10% of boys go off the derech although there wasn’t any basis for the suggestion.
No one is advocating that boys begin dating before they are ready. what is being advocated is
A. At whatever point a boy begins to date he should be encouraged to date a girl his own age.
B. As it stands now many boys do NOT begin dating based on when they are ready but rather when the system allows for it. That artificial delay is harmful. Without it boys will truly begin when each and every one is ready as a individual. Some will be earlier and some will be later.
The main source was the avi chai foundation study of class sizes for all day schools in North America. The results have been corroborated by other studies. I am not an actuary and was not invlolved in discovering the problem although I have seen the studies. I think mox mentioned earlier that he did some of the research. Perhaps he will enlighten us as to the rest of the source material.
Truth be told, one does not need to be a mathematician to realize that B”H our population is growing very rapidly. One also does not need to be a mathematician to realize that girls start dating around 19 and boys around 22. What obviously follows is that there is certainly not enough 22 yr old boys for the 19 yr old girls. Perhaps one need to be a mathematician to figure out if the discrepancy is 9.67% or 11.13% or somewhere in the middle. From my point of view either way it’s an unacceptable problem and something we must do our utmost to alleviate.
You asked why I discuss 100 boys for 150 girls. In terms of actual numbers here is the sitaution.
Every year aprox. 10% more girls enter shidduch island than boys. Lets take the last five yrs as a small sampling. Per year (based on class sizes) apox. 2,000 boys enter the shidduch parsha which multiplied by 5 yrs is 10,000 boys. During the same time period there were aprox. 2,200 girls per year entering the parsah for a total of 3,000 girls.
If over the last 5 yrs 85% of these boys have gotten married (to girls obviouly). And, even if we assume that every last one of the boys married a girl from that same five year period, the result would be 1,500 left and 2,500 girls left. If 90% percent of the boys have gotten married than the result would be 1,000 boys left and 2,000 girls.
SO while you are right that there are “only” 10% more girls per year than boys. That equals aprox 200 girls per year don’t have a shot, not at 190 and not at 35. When we multiply that by what has been happening for the last 10 years we have a terrible situation.
Baruch Hashem progress has been made towards encouraging more close in age shidduchim as a result of the recent ongoing discussions and public speeches on the issue.
Joseph: I will ignore the personal attacks. Please clarify which of the following two facts you believe to be inaccurate.
Population growth between 3-4%
Average age gap between couples of apox. 3 yrs.
If you disagree please present a argument as to on what basis you feel the population growth based on class sizes is inaccurate. If you agree but still believe that this doesn’t create a numerical discrepancy on shidduch island please clarify.
You make an excellent point. There does seem to be a slightly higher percentage of boys going off the derech than girls although attempts to get hard numbers are understandable difficult. However the percentage difference seems to be slight. If there was some way to change that it, would help the numbers problem a bit. The age gap however is a gorilla of a problem, and as long as it stays the way it is we will continue having a terrible situation of approximately 10% of each girls high school graduating class never having a family.
B”H there does seem to be a trend towards boys being much more willing than ever before to date and marry girls their own age. This is certainly a very good beginning.
“Oh, and BTW, there are plenty other ways to help this exact issue. Like telling girls to actually figure out what they want to do in life, and work towards that – so that when they are on the market they will have a solid stance in life.”
“Who ever said ploni is exactly what they think they want?”
Please explain how either of these points in any way shape of form will alleviate the situation on shidduch island with 100 boys and 150 girls.
Do you agree with the numbers and offer a solution, OR do you still think that the numbers problem is a minor issue.
It is obviously IMPOSSIBLE to solve any problem without knowing what the problem is.
I posit that the shidduch crisis is overwhelmingly a direct result of the inequity of numbers. If we solve or alleviate the inequity of numbers then much has been accomplished. If not; everything else we attempt will be like fixing deck chairs on the titanic.
SO once again, is the discusion here about what is THE problem, or a debate about ways to perhaps alleviate the age gap.
The answer to your question is NO.
Without debating the haskafik issues (see Arizal who says bas ploni l’ploni only refers to boys who get married at 18). I have a simple question for you. If you grant that presently we have 2000 more older girls than older boys (because of the age gap problem) WHO is their ploni?????
Trying to argue the haskafic points is fruitless unless you either debate the numerical problem on shidduch island, Or you believe that the ratzon hashem is for us to do NOTHING about it.
For the record I strongly disagree with both points. The numbers are obvious, HE expects us to do whatever we can to alleviate the situation.
Not ALL boys, if raised your boys well kol hakavood. However, simple supply and demand dictates that as long as there exists a significant inequity of numbers the girls will get a raw deal. It doesn’t have to be that way and we as a community can change it.
Just Smile and Danish:
Its not even worth discussing whether or not to “tell” girls who want to date at 18-19 that they shouldn’t, simply because they and their parents will not listen. However, if boys 22-25 are encouraged to date and marry girls their own age than inevitably fewer 18-19 yr old girls will get married.
Clearly there will always be 18-19 yr old girls dating. BUT if we are able to have fewer of them get married at that age then there will be far fewer girls turning 30 and still be single. Sounds like a positive result to me.
Similarly with the boys. At this point the message is to encourage them whenever they start to consider girls their own age. In the big picture, movement will have to be made on both ends to close the gap simply because at the end of the day there will always be far more 19 yr old girls than 23 yr old boys. This is the situation, no two ways about it.
Just Smile: I haven’t once suggested that boys start going out earlier and certainly not earlier than they are ready. What has been discussed in encouraging more close in age shiddcuhim. Boys will be boys and they will start going out whenever it is appropriate for them INDIVIDUALY. However, whenever they start, they should be encouraged to date girls close to whatever age they are when they start.
The discusion about boys 21.5 and girls 20 is a long term goal not for any individual who today is not ready.
check out this from, oomis1105
“It comes down to simple supply and demand.
You have a point!”
sounds like she’s coming around!
In order to close and solve the age gap problem we don’t need boys to marry girls exactly their age, we need to get it to around a 1/1.5 yr age difference. (the mathtematical explanation is perhaps beyond the scope of this thread).
In other words guys 21.5 and girls 20. This doesn’t need to happen over night nor will it. However we need go GRADUALLY move in that direction of boys starting slightly earlier and girls slightly later. Is that asking SO much?
“I personally think people should date the right people, not the right age.”
ABSOLUTELY. However many people don’t even consider girls that are their own age simply because the girl isn’t 19. Let’s try to encourage boys to realize that perhaps the right girls is his own age. NOW that’s radical!
Sounds like I haven’t explained myself well enough. We are not talking about girls getting married at 27 instead of 18. We are discussing more marriages between 23 yr old boys and 21 yr old girls instead of with 19 yr olds. If more 21 yr olds getting married instead of 19 year old doesn’t find favor in your eyes, than as I wrote before, it sounds like you prefer to leave the situation as is and continue with the tragedy afflicting our communtied
Young women should do whatever than can to get dates. As a community we need to ensure that ALL have a reasonable chance to get married therefore we should encourage more close in age shidduchim.
SJSinNYC: You write,
“I am not sure if 2,000 women unmarried is a “crisis” – maybe not all women are meant to get married.”
You are entitled to your opinion. In which case this discussion is not relevant to you. This thread is addressing the members of our communities who view this as a crisis, or more accurately as a tragedy and would like to do something about it.
10% per year x what has been going on for the last couple of years.
The numbers of 100/150 are for illustrative purposes only. The actual numbers are about 2000 boys per year entering the island to 2,200 girls per year entering the island. With 200 girls stuck every year. Multiply that by what has been going on for the last 10 years and we have around 2,000 unmatchable girls. Sounds pretty serious to me.
as for 18-20 year old girls having a more difficult time getting dates,as far as I’m concerned that’s all good. It means the 21-23 year olds are getting the dates!
gavra: How right you are regarding the freezer.
The following ad appeared over pesach
“If come Tu B’shvat/Tamuz boys are only permitted to date girls 21 and older, and to date younger girls a boy must wait till after the zeman, then boys will have a strong incentive to date girls their own age.”
Therein lie the solution to the crisis, (certainly in right wing circles)
Thanks for coming around
“if the numbers are that skewed (which, I honestly don’t think is the case)”
Do you buy into population growth of 3%-4% per year?
Do you buy into average age gap between boy and girl around 3 yrs?
The automatic result is approx 10% per year left over on the island. Do you think it is more skewed than that or less??
One more thing. Your comments about building strong marriages is off this thread. However once again, If we want to create a ruach where boys have to bring more to the table (your argument); we must ven out the numbers. As long as the boys are sitting pretty in the shidduch situation and getting plenty of dates, there is no way to change the system. When the girls will have the upper hand and be able to insist on certain qualities WITHOUT running risk of being left on the island, then we will all see unbelievable changes in the qualities of the boys. As it stands now, the girls that hold out have a much greater chance of getting stuck.
Is it fair?? Absolutley NOT. But this IS the situation whether we like it or not.
It comes down to simple supply and demand.
Clearly $$$$ helps decide which girls have an advantage. If there are 150 girls and 100 boys on a island ……
Which 100 girls of the 150 will have a better shot a getting marreid. Most likely looks, yichus $$$$ etc. However even if every girl had everything. Or better yet. Even if every boy had all the qualities that you think they should have, it will not change the fact that 50 have no chance of getting off the island.
You see, as a community we really shouldn’t care whether the 50 stuck girls are rich or not, pretty or not, great personalities or not. What we should care about is making sure there are equal numbers on the island.
Oh bytw, when the numbers are equal suddenly the $$$ and other such factors become much less of an issue as the boys have less leverage.
If you want to alleviate the $$ problem (and you do) then solve the numbers. The money will automatically solve itself. Simple law of supply and demand
tzippi: I apoligize, I didn’t address your last point.
NO one (that I know of) is advocating that boys get married before they are ready simply to alleviate the age gap induced shidduch crisis. However many boys (ready or not) start dating after x amount of years of bais medrash. Those same boys if they didn’t go to EY would start dating a bit earlier. They would be no more nor less ready.
Tzippi: It appears that you have an ax to grind regarding the kollel system and the unfair burden it places on girls.
This is a post of yours from three months ago
“As it is, for some reason over the last generation it has become much more widely accepted to support for x number of years. If boys will start dating earlier, say 2 years earlier, it will become x+2. Not necessarily good for the shalom bayis of the young couple, and may not help the parents much easier”
If you believe that $$$$ is a major cause of shidduch crisis, please come out and say it, (and I will disprove it). However if you are just complaining about the problems in the kollel system without relevance to the age gap …….
Do you really think that if boys go to EY for a year they will financially more prepared? Last I checked Brisk and Mir don’t have night college as part of the sidrei hayeshiva.
As for why people claim that the year in israel is unproductive for many boys, try speaking to the boys that have come back over the last couple of years. Is seems that a very large portion of them thought they would merit (avira de”y machkim) however unfourtantly it didn’t happen like they thought. Ask around the boys and their rebbeim. I await the results from your survey.
So we agree that boys should be encouraged to date and marry girls their own age. From a financial perspective it definitely makes sense.
We also agree that boys should get married when they are ready. Your issue of being ready for the financial responsibility is an excellent point. I was just wondering how a year of unproductive learning in israel contributes towards that end. The argument about shortening the time in israel is simply that its not great for their learning. When to start dating? That should depend on each individual boy not on when the system allows, (now that’s radical isn’t it).
I don’t get it. If a boy would do better in his learning by not going to EY before his wedding should he still go??? After he gets engaged/married a mature decision should be made as to where he should continue learning taking all factors into account. Are you advocating going to EY at a time that is not good for his learning simply to “get it out of his system”. Obviously, boys (with their wives) who decide to learn in EY post chasuna will have to make sure that it works financially. Whether or not they learned there as a bochur should make no difference.
If your point is that learning in EY post chasuna is not a financially smart decision because they will require complete financail support; and you feel that something should be done about it (your argument not mine); than that is all the more reason to discourage boys from going before their chassuna. Clearly the boys that are most likely to return and require financial support post chasuna are those that where there before they started dating. Boys that didn’t learn there as a bochur in all likelihood will continue learning learning wherever he had been before his chasuna.
squeak: my aplogies.
Tzippi, I just got my hands on the ad.
sounds to me like it’s the point I addressed.
Modern Orthodox, YU, etc. clearly have the shortage of boy problems that we have been discussing. Try picking up a phone and speaking to the various shadchanim and organizations that deal with those communities, and you will quickly see how true it is.
Re Chassidic communities:
we have discussed previously that there is NOT a shortage of boys there simply because they don’t have the age gap issue. Boys begin dating at the same age as the girls.
In a nutshell there is a tremendous shortage of 22 yr old boys vis a vis 19 yr old girls. No two ways about it.
I assume you are referencing the discussion that has been taking place in various media forms regarding the “stlyle” that almost all the boys go to learn in Eretz Yisroel after a couple of years in bais medrash. It is no secret that many of them are not nearly as productive in their learning there as they are were both prior and subsequent to their stay in Eretz Yisroel. The simple conclusion is thererefore not every single boy should automatically go just because it’s the style. I actually think that’s a very reasonable point. Whether or not it will have a positive effect on closing the age gap (it will), is only a secondary point.
Do you really think that boys who would do better by not going should still go? Or are you in la la and think that all the boys who go are fabulously productive. If you believe the later try speaking to good boys (and their american rebbeim) who have been there in the last five years and ask them in hindsight if it was a samrt decision to go.
Which Ideas? The only ads I saw came fro the NASI Project that has strong backing.
Squek: You write
“I’ve already explained that 3-4% annual growth is a fabricated and grossly exaggerated number.”
You have claimed, but I don’t recall an explanation. Especially in light of the fact that a study of day schools across North America showed the annual growth to be in the 3-4% range. (the more right wing the larger population growth due to larger family sizes.)
You also write:
“if we say (for example) that the problem is that boys have a much harder vetting process (i.e. many years of long days in yeshiva, and the possession of a “plan” – have you ever seen a girl with a plan?) than girls do (half days in sem for a coupla months – who can’t handle that?), that theory is far more difficult to digest.”
Please explain yourself. In previous posts you have agreed to the (obvious) statement that their are many more girls on the island than boys. The numerical explanation happens to explain that phenomena. Your suggestion about vetting processes etc. which is a re-take on the “it’s much easier to be a good girl than a good guy” theory still doesn’t explain how if every guy gets married to one girl. How are their more girls left at the end of the day. If their are more “good” girls than good” guys. we should be left with a bunch of “good” girls and a equal number of “not good” boys. Yet you yourself admit this is not the case.
I’m not sure which ideas you are referring to. If you mean the concept that THE cause of the shidduch crisis is due to the inequity of numbers on shidduch island. Then I beg to differ. All the names that of Ziknei Hador you have mentioned have signed to this effect encouraging boys to date girls their own age for this reason. The letter has been printed numerous times in various frum newspaper.
“This is the will of the Lord in his infinite wisdom.”
That is a very convenient remark for a person or community who don’t want to take responsibility for anything. I suppose we should shut down, Hatzalza, Camp Simcha Bonei Oilam, Yad Eliezer, Tomchie Shabbos and any of the other myriad of unbelievable organizations that our community has ongoing. After all what all these organizations have in common is, they help alleviate situations that were brought on by “Lord in his infinite wisdom”. Of course it’s the ratzon hashem and he expects us to be up to the challenge.
We can choose to let the natural results of our actions take their course and in all likelihood we will continue to have the same results that we have now.
“the defination of insanity is to keep on doing what we have been doing and expect different results”.
G-d expects us to do what we can we see a situation that needs fixing. To be honest I wouldn’t take this responsibility myself. However it is well documented that many of the present leaders of our nation, (Rav Elayshiv, Rav Shteinman, Rav Kamenetzky, and ybl”c Rav Shmuel Berenbaum and Rav Henoch Liebowitz to name just a few) are well aware of the seriousness of the situation. And, contrary to your suggestion, they have not advised to “take a chill”. We are expected to do what we can just like we must in any tzara facing the klal or a individual.
As a famous gadol once said, the concept of kefira is a middah that one must use when trying to help SOMEONE ELSE. We have no right to tell the person that I’ll take a chill; it’s G-d’s problem not mine. Any individual or community that could alleviate a problem is obligated to do so. Once we have exhausted all avenues we then turn to hashem and say, YOU the creator of the world are in charge.
HAVE WE FULLFILLED OUR END OF THE DEAL, Or are we just passing the buck???
Squek: You clearly agree that there is a significant numerical discrepancy between the numbers of boys and girls on the island. Yet you write;
“(though if I had to pin it down on one, I’d put it to the last one on my list, and the age gap not even in the top 10”
So long as you agree to the two basic premises (and you haven’t begun to disprove either)
1. Population Growth of 3%-4%
2. Average age gap amongst couples of aprox. 3yrs
These factors automatically dictate close to 10% of girls having no chance to marry. How can that be refereed to as a “insignificant factor”???
As for you second comment “manipulating people is wrong”. I don’t get it. Is encouraging boys to date girls their own age wrong?? Is pointing out the benefits of dating girls who are 21-24 wrong?
“Some people get married and widowed young. Or divorced. So they might marry someone who has never been married. So someone might get married young, get divorced young and never marry again.”
I don’t quite understand how that impacts in any way the “simple” math that dictates that 10% of each graduating class has no one to marry. Lets go back to our island. If there are 100 boys and 150 girls. Say 90 boys marry 90 girls. We have 10 boys left and 60 girls. Thinking that the eitza is for those 50 girls to hope to latch on to the widows/divorces men from the 90 is simply not realistic.
If I may say so myself; the math IS simple but it’s people who refuse to acknowledge it who are oversimplifying the situation.
The island I refer to is the total dating pool of orthodox jews in North America. If you have some plane that could ship the thousands of stuck girls and land them in a community with eligible available men, I’ll be the first one to contribute towards the cost of transportation. HOWEVER that solution has yet to be found.
Very very sad indeed. It is just such a girl who may unfortunately be one of the 50 left on the island. It’s not fair that the boys can be picky AND get away with it. But that’s a direct derivative of the inequity of numbers. A picky girl on the other hand is playing with fire. HOWEVER, even if girls weren’t “picky” whatsoever (and I will posit that the overwhelming majority are NOT, although THAT is hard to prove) if there are 150 girls and 100 guys on the island …….
You write’ “but those families aren’t on your radar of shidduchim – so it doesn’t make a difference to you that a more modern girl gets engaged – she wasn’t on any of your lists”
I’m not quite sure why you think “modern” girls aren’t on any of the lists. Last I checked the shadchanim and organizations that I’ve spoken to deal will girls from all backgrounds and styles provided they are orthodox. This shidduch crisis exists very very much in the “modern” (I hate labels but you used them) crowd.
As for you first point. That brain lock
“most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married”
is exactly what needs to be countered. There are so many regular normal great girls 21-24 (and older, I’m just using those ages as the initial stage) who have BARELY dated. It is absurd to think that if she isn’t married yet, there must be something wrong with her. B”H as a result of the publicity and discussion of the past year, many many boys have gotten married to girls who are close to their own age. AND guess what? They realized that the silly arguments put forth to NEED a much younger girl are just that, silly.
(That’s not to say that for some boys the right girl for him will be a couple years younger. The issue is correcting the misconception that EVERYONE needs to marry a girl much younger.)
“And by the way, one of the big reasons why there are more girls then boys is because it’s much easier to be a “frum yeshivish” girl then a “frum yeshivaish” guy. So you have much more guys that people in the frum community won’t want their daughter to go out with then girls. “
I was waiting for the argument It’s easier for there to be a good girl than a good boy.
If I may ask one question.
WHO DO THE “NOT” GOOD BOYS MARRY.
They do seem to be getting married. One thing I know is that they are marrying females! Arguments such as those explain (maybe) which girls get married but NOT how many. At the end of the day, if we have 100 boys on the island and 150 girls …..
SJSinNYC: you write, “I wonder if that portion is what you are calling the “age gap difference.” I don’t think 100% of men or women ever got married.”
That portion is NOT what is referred to by the “age gap difference”. We refer to the many many more older girls than boys. Suppose we have 100 older boys, perhaps they (or those who rc”l never marry) are a result of the small percentage of people who never get married. Obviously a corresponding number of older girls would be for the same reason. However, how do we have so many MORE older single girls abouve and beyond the total number of older boys with no one to marry?? THAT is what is a result of the “age gap”.
Squek: You seem to agree to both points and therefore agree that there are many more girls on the island than boys. (correct me if I’m wrong).
You then write,
“People die. People get sick. People have disabilities, physical and mental. People can be loners. People can abandon their community. People from outside a community can join. A community can impose harsher standards on certain people than on others. The caveats are endless.”
Assuming we have 100 boys on the island and 150 girls as you seem to agree. Are you suggesting that the reason for the extra 50 girls on the island is NOT a result of the factors that you agree to, but rather because.
A. significantly more boys die young than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)
b. significantly more boys are loners than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)
c. significantly more boys get sick than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)
d. significantly more boys are disabled than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)
e. significantly fewer boys from outside our community join than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)
f. harsher standards are imposed on boys than on girls (i guess therefore making more boys unmarriagble)
In all honesty I don’t event think that you believe this. You agree that the two factors we put forth create a inequity of numbers, yet you argue that the inequity of numbers is due to other “endless caveats” that in no way shape or form create a significantly smaller pool of dating boys.
Just Smile: clearly you concede that there are more 22 yr old boys than 19 yr old girls. I haven’t ever (in this forum or elsewhere) suggested that boys get married at 19 nor have we suggested that girls get married at 22. What we are discussing is two points.
1. The community needs to realize the source of the crisis. Only then can we even begin to solve it.
2. Boys who are dating ages 22,23,24,25 should be encouraged by their parents, friends, rebbeim to date girls there own age. Is that SO radical??
This simple tactic has been extremely effective in the last year. Any problem with it?
Squek: Nice to have you back. That post was strictly in response to Just Smile.
You seem to agree that there are more girls than boys in the pool. Your issue is that you don’t buy the age gap explanation as to why there are more girls in the pool. I’ll ask once again which of the following two points to you dispute.
1. Growth of 3-4% per year
2. Average age difference among couples in the 3 yr range.
If you agree with both factors than I’m not sure what there is to debate. If you disagree, please offer some logical argument to disprove the two seemingly obvious points.
Math 101: If the number of boys = the number of girls, then for every girl who doesn’t get a date there should be a boy sitting around. If the “all” the boys are getting dates its because there are far fewer boys “around” than girls.
Incidentally, the reason why the boys can be so selective is a direct result of the inequity of numbers not a cause.
wow unbelievable interest. I’ll deal with one at a time.
Joseph: Where have you seen that indicates there are as many 22 yr old boys as 19 yr old girls. That isn’t indicated in the census stats.
Just smile: “I’m a single Yeshiva guy – going out for a little while now” Precisely. The boys who are new to dating are not on anybody’s database. HOWEVER the boys who have been dating 5 yrs ARE. Yet the numbers of girls in the database that have been dating for 5 years outnumbers the numbers of boys by the thousands. That’s why we took a look at OLDER singles in the databases.
“I don’t need every shnook shadchan…. I have enough people doing that without the lists. But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”
I’m sure you are one of a kind and have everyone calling to redd you shiddcuhim, as are every one of your friends. Kind of interesting that you write “But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”
If the boys date every week and the girls once a year, who are the boys dating?????? Obviously there are many many more girls in the pool than boys!!
Tzippi: Last I checked Saw you at Sinai Yu connect, Invei hagefen Gateways aren’t based on a Lakewood trajectory. The reason I use lakewood is simply because it is the single largest collection of dating boys and it is the easiest to get statistics from there.
SJSinNYC: No one can claim to know who the basherte is. This is subject to a huge discussion of which to be honest is not relevant to alleviating the crisis. However if bas ploni l’ploni means that everyone married their basherte than please explain all the older single girls with no one to match up with. Who is their Ploni?????? He got married to someone!
BYTW: The arizl rights that bas ploni l’ploni is only till 18.
Speak to Gateways YU Connect Saw You at Sinai, The well known Shadchanim out there in the yeshivish crowd, Invei Hagefen (Agudah) etc. and ask them about the number of girls in their database vs the numbers of boys. This is obviously not a scientific study as it’s possible that for some reason that no one has access to the many many boys and these people only know the girls. However the sheer magnitude of the discrepancy between the numbers is a good place to start.
I am very limitied in terms of the data that the CR will allow however the following will probable be allowed. As of this past succos there were 950 single boys in Lakewood. Take a guess Joseph how many of them were between the ages of 27-28. After your response I’ll give you the answer. I have the list in front of me.
Joseph, I HAVE spoken to the shadchanim, the schools etd. (I have at home a copy of a study school by school how many “older” girls are still unmarried. Clearly some of these will imy”h get married. But not all as the number of boys out there isn’t enough.)
Regarding my moral compass, I apologize for your tears but I gave the mods the phone numbers to check with Rav Shteinman’s Gabbai and Rav Elya Ber’s gabbai to verify their position on this issue. I am comfortable following their moral compass.
Joseph: “It has clearly been established that there are not more young women of marriageable age alive than men.”
Clearly established where?? How many shadchanim have you spoken to. How many shadchanim databases how you seen. How many High school alumni lists have you reviewed to make such a inaccurate statement. ACross the board in orthodox Jewry from very modern to ultra yeshivish this phenomena exists. (more acute in the more yeshivish circles for reasons outlined above.
The numbers of girls on the island outnumbes the boys in the thousands. This has been documented. Feel free to contact NASI as I did to get the info. But please don”t state as fact totally false information.
As for you other point that so long as there is any available men than any individual girl can get married is correct. If you have 100 women and 5 men clearly 5 women can get married. However 95 can’t no way no how.
“The SIGNIFICANT problems we face canneot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them” (Albert Einstein)
not to be nit picky, but you write “If all men marry women 3 years younger, and frum population growth is more than 2% per year (probably this number is too low b”h), this more than offsets the maximum ratio of 105 men: 100 women.”
“(probably this number is too low b”h), more than offsets the problem” doesn’t express the seriousness of the problem.
However, if we all understand the problem I’m good. Unfortunately our good friend joseph seems to disagree.
Annon the problem is the reverse. There are to many GIRLS for to few BOYS. Hence we have a shiddcuh crisis for the girls. being that the population growth is closer to 4% and the average age gap somewhere around 3- 3.5 yrs we don’t have enough girls for the guys. even if the 5% extra boys stayed true into the 17-29 age group it isn’t enough to have enough 22 yr old boys for the 19 yr old girls.
Thought this thread was about shidduchim tips not screen names.
In one of the frum papers over yom there was ad with some interesting suggestions for closing the age gap. One of them appears to be a brillinat suggestion.
“If come tu b’shvattamuz (i.e. lakewood freezer) bochurim are only permitted to date girls over 21, and to date younger girls they need to wait till the end of the zeman, then boys would have a strong incentive to date girls their own age.”
Now that’s a great idea!
Joseph, seems like you didn’t read what “anon for this” wrote. He is writing that the 5% more boys per year which would alleviate slightly the problem is mitigated somewhat. In other words the age gap is MORE of a problem than mox was writing. Please clarify your comment as we value you opinion greatly.
Nose clips?? Perhaps tissues to dry the tears of the hundreds and hundreds (it’s actually in the thousands) of girls who are the unfortunate victims of our collective indifference. B”H of late some movement has been made to take steps to alleviate the situation. “Joseph” I apologize if the shidduch situation makes you uncomfortable but that’s not a reason to prevent discussion on the topic. After all what greater segula andor tip could their possibly be than to alleviate the core problem.
Coming back to the opening thread. “instead of constantly complaining about the shidduch crisis, why don’t we do something about it? i think …..”
Clearly the most effective course of action regarding the shidduch crises is to close the age gap. Being that age gap is the key cause of the shidduch crisis closing the age gap by encouraging more close in age shiddcuhim would be the most effective way to “do something about it”.
Thank oomis1105. However Joseph and Will Hill would like to continue to pretend that there isn’t a numerical problem, yet they haven’t even challenged in any form or fashion either of the two basic premises.
1. Popultaion growth
2. average age gap amongst married couples.
Perhaps oomis you’ll be able to convince them.
I wonder if keeping Taharas Hamishpacha laws results in different data on all kinds of illnesses especially those related to women. Last time I checked the Orthodox population went to doctors who studied and practice medicine based on data that was accumulated from the whole populace. Therefore I conclude that short of any evidence whatsoever to support your suggestion……..