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Forget the 100 flips.
Back to squeak’s question. If the odds of getting 10 in a row of heads or tails can be computed by multiplying .5 to the 9th power and gives us 1 in 500, then how can the z score for the same thing be 1 in 100?
Squeak: You don’t get a reliable z score on 2 flips because the sample size is not big enough, so it won’t approximate a normal distribution.
I refer to Note H on the chart:
“Although the brew basket is only used as kli sheni, the cRc recommends purchasing items which are free of all shailos.”
Well, that is a fine recommendation, but b’kavod, I think it should be displayed a bit more prominently–perhaps in the title.
See also Note A.
Health: I say that they concur it is a chumrah, since that is what their document about it says, in the footnotes.
And I say they are a daas yochid, because every competent person I have discussed it with is bewildered by their psak, and that includes at least one prominent mainstream posek.
Health: Bkavod, I think the CRC is the daas yachid here. And even they concur that what they are saying is a chumrah and is not the halacha.
In dishwashers, there would be no issue, since the soap would render anything treif pagum.
I think this is correct as well.
ya if ur a married man u shudnt be talking to married ladies!! ask ur LOR, not the ppl u shudnt be talking to..
lol
Good point, purple.
Can anyone who wants to, follow Rabbi Abadi’s leniencies?
It would be appropriate to follow his stringencies as well. I think he’s got some nice opinions about eruvin that will mean you can forget about using most of them.
“according to an expert in kashrut, R’ Abadi.”
lol
You mechutzaf. Rav Abadi is quite an expert, and is head and shoulders in learning over most rabbonim.
And we also are not noheg like him. But I wouldn’t want to be the one to be mevazeh him.
Mods: that comment should not have been posted.
Don’t forget the dam milah.
But, just to show you that I’m still more correct than you, I will note that the mathematical chances are 1/500–not 1/1000.
This is because I am calculating the chances of being this far off the mean in either direction, which would happen if there are either 10 heads or 10 tails. Therefore, the formula is 1*.5*.5*.5*.5*.5*.5*.5*.5*.5. Because the first time it doesn’t matter which one it lands on.
This is true even though I said the case was 10 heads. Because I am calculating the chances that a sample of 10 would be that far off the mean of all spins which is .5, and it would be that far off the mean whether it was 10 heads or 10 tails.
Snort at you.
Squeak: I understand what you are asking now. I have no idea what the answer is. I double checked my math, and it is correct, and I double checked the z score and it is correct. There is .4992% to the left of the score, which means there is slightly less than a 1% chance of falling this far off the mean. Which means that it will happen about 1% of the time even with a quarter that is evenly weighted.
I frankly have no idea what the mistake I am making is.
Torah613: Squeak points out that the chances are in fact 1 in a thousand, while a z score of 3.16 gives us about a 1 in a hundred chance. Which makes absolutely no sense.
I don’t get it; I’ll ponder more tomorrow.
The person replied in the affimative, and the sales person said YEECH. The customer then went to the store manager and repeated what happend.
The sales person did get a reprimand, but was not fired
I don’t share your values regarding this issue.
Oy, will the men have to wear skirts?
(Actually, just say the bekeshe counts as a skirt and you’re good.
Akuperma: I haven’t looked, but my guess is they are claiming it violates the Civil Rights Act or some similar Act, which applies to anyone who provides a public accommodation in interstate commerce. As we know, interstate commerce has no limits, so it applies to any public accomodation.
The same way you can’t have a hotel that is “Whites only”, or “No Jews.”
The better question is if free exercise will trump it. Under Smith, probably not. But Smith is weak.
I don’t know why you are making up halacha.
What mod said. That’s why.
But, don’t they see that this is why our communities are suspicious of them? Don’t they see that this is why we think they are out to get us and then we don’t cooperate in the investigations of molestations etc? What does it harm them if our stores, where only we shop anyway, have a dress code?
They are not being wise.
The Torah does not describe imposed observance on a mass scale. It describes maintained observance by on rare occasions enforcing Religious law. When the Sanhedrin starting executing too many people, because the Torah was not being kept, they didn’t ratchet up the enforcement, they quit.
It just won’t work against a large segment of the population.
So the argument is that it won’t work. If it doesn’t work, then presumably they’ll stop doing it.
But you of course agree that it is proper to force torah observance even on a mass scale.
Also, we have more resources than they had then. Chizkiya sent agents to search people’s houses for avoda zara, but they would worship after the agents left. But today, you can just bug the houses.
And for that matter if Satmar forced you to live the way they do.
To be fair, he may be concerned that he will be forced to observe in a way that he thinks is not necessary from a halachic viewpoint.
For example, you would be upset if the mizrachi became the majority and forced you to go get a secular education because they think that is a mitzva.
I can only hope you’re being tongue-in-cheek when wishing the apocalypse upon the Jews in Israel: civil strife, imposed observance, expulsion, collusion with the Arabs to destroy the country, etc.
I’m curious that you find imposed observance, as described in the Torah, to be a apocalypse.
Yes, but only if you lein in a deep voice so you sound like a man.
In fact, is it even tzanuah for the girls to be here?
Why would the onus be on the girls? You think it isn’t tznius? So you leave.
As my mashgiach said when someone suggested the women should come through the back door of the yeshiva on shabbos: you could go through the back door.
As to the actual question: I think it is mostly ok, since we don’t know who each other are and there is no way to contact anyone for real. But if you feel like a comment you are going to make is innapropriate–then you shouldn’t make it. And if you feel like the “relationships” you are getting into here are innapropriate–then you should leave.
Then you will have 100% (or close to it) of people not serving.
Not quite.
Because then they won’t mind serving, because they won’t worry about being shmadded in the army, and they will be protecting a state which they think is legitimate and worth protecting.
Charedim are the fastest growing segment of the Israeli (and Jewish population as a whole) at some point in the near future 2030-2050 that will be the majority of the population and soon after that a super Majority (say 70% or more).
Make that 100%, because once they’re a majority, the chilonim aren’t going to want to live there anymore. Because they’ll make them keep the torah.
Squeak: I think the real answer to your question is that the distribution of sample means approximates a normal distribution, but it does not do so precisely, and it gets more precise as the sample size grows bigger.
I used a sample size of 10 (I spun 10 times to divine what would happen if I spun it infinite times), which is not so large. I think if I ran it with a sample size of 100, it would be much closer to the mathematical answer.
The z score for that is an even 10, but I can’t find a z table that goes that low, so…
You know why they don’t want them in the army? Because after they join the army, they’ll overthrow the tzionim. Let me tell you about the new ??? ????; if you break shabbos, you get sekilah. Just like the Torah says.
Squeak: I rounded some of the numbers. Some because my calculator only goes to 10 decimals. And including the final 3.16 since the z table I used only went to the second decimal.
Squeak is as usual correct. Statistics allow you to predict how accurate your outcome is by determining how likely it is that a sample would have the outcome you have if the underlying population did not have the criteria you hypothesize. But it will always be a likelihood.
If you flip a quarter 10 times and get 10 heads, statistics will tell you that the quarter is weighted and we will say that it is statistically significant at the 99% level. But we still don’t know it is true, because it will still happen with a normal quarter 1% of the time.
(z score=3.16 p hat is 1, and p is .5. Square root of .5*.5 is .5. Divided by square root of 10 is .158. Which means we are 3.16 stdevs off the mean.)
Stated differently, if you took 100 quarters and flipped each one of them 10 times, you could expect that one of the times you would have either 10 heads or 10 tails. If you do it with one quarter though, it is so unlikely that it will happen, that you can still conclude that it is weighted with reasonable certainty.
Torah613: Maybe what I just did is pretty basic, but I’m pretty proud of myself for knowing how to do it anyway and very few of my friends can do that.)
DY has the credited response.
There is something funny about a book that purports to use numbers to show how numbers are manipulated, and everyone reading the book believes it.
Perhaps the book is self proving.