Christophe Barraud, celebrated as the �world�s most accurate economist,� is forecasting a victory for Donald Trump in the presidential race, and Republicans likely to secure full control of Congress. Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, sees a Trump win as likely to boost the U.S. economy in the short term, but he cautions that longer-term economic challenges, especially related to the growing national deficit, could emerge.

“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers� forecasts, and financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,� Barraud wrote on X.

A highly ranked forecaster for the U.S. economy for 11 of the past 12 years, Barraud suggests that while a Republican victory in both the Senate and House appears feasible, the House remains a closer contest.

In a scenario where Republicans control both Congress and the White House, Barraud predicts the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could see a jump of 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025. However, he also warned that if Trump were to pursue significant tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts, the national deficit could spiral, pushing the 10-year Treasury bond yield up to 5% over time. Despite this, Barraud believes a Trump administration�s policies could drive GDP growth beyond consensus forecasts of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

While polls currently show the race as tight, Trump leads in RealClearPolitics� polling aggregates. Election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known for his historically accurate predictions, leans toward a Harris win, while data analyst Nate Silver says he has a �gut� feeling that Trump will prevail.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)