Poll Finds Cuomo Gains Ground on Mamdani if Sliwa Exits NYC Mayoral Race

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo could be within striking distance of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s mayoral race if Republican Curtis Sliwa were to drop out, according to a new Gotham Polling and AARP survey released this week.

The poll found that 44.6% of likely voters would back Mamdani if Sliwa exited the race, while 40.7% would support Cuomo — a margin of less than four points, within the poll’s margin of error. With all three candidates in the race, Mamdani maintains a commanding lead at 43.2%, followed by Cuomo at 28.9% and Sliwa at 19.4%.

“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds,” said Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics. “If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”

The survey of 1,040 likely voters — conducted over two days last week — found that 78% of undecided voters are 50 or older, suggesting a key advantage for Cuomo among an age group that has historically shown higher turnout rates. The poll’s demographic model, based on 2021 general election data, assumed that just under 40% of voters would be under 50. Mamdani’s campaign, however, has registered tens of thousands of new young voters, which could make the electorate more evenly split between younger and older voters this November.

Both Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary, and Sliwa have said they will remain in the race.

The poll also found that cost of living remains the most pressing concern for city voters, with 63.6% citing it as their top issue. Public safety ranked second at 48.6%, followed by housing affordability at 38.9%. Nearly 43% of respondents identified as very or somewhat liberal, compared to just over 23% identifying as somewhat or very conservative.

Mamdani, 33, a state assemblyman from Queens and a self-described socialist, shocked the city’s political establishment by defeating Cuomo and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams in June’s Democratic primary. Born in Uganda and now representing Astoria, Mamdani has faced criticism for his past comments on Israel and his refusal to condemn Hamas. Cuomo, 67, a former governor and U.S. Housing and Urban Development secretary, has sought to portray Mamdani as inexperienced, warning that his policies are “untested and extreme.”

During a Sunday appearance on WABC 770 AM’s “The Cats Roundtable,” Cuomo called Sliwa a “spoiler” in the race. “The problem is Curtis Sliwa is a spoiler in the race,” Cuomo said. “A vote for Curtis Sliwa is really a vote for Mamdani.”

Sliwa, 71, founder of the Guardian Angels and a former talk radio host, pushed back during last week’s debate, suggesting that Cuomo should be the one to exit the race.

“Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. “These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)