President Donald Trump’s deteriorating standing on the economy — once his strongest political asset — is flashing warning signs for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.
In an analysis aired Tuesday, Enten said aggregated polling data shows Trump’s net approval on the economy has plunged sharply over the past year, falling to levels comparable to — and now slightly worse than — those seen by former President Joe Biden at a similar point in his term.
In just one year, Enten said, Trump’s economic approval rating swung by a dramatic 26 points, a reversal that could have major consequences for GOP control of Congress.
“You go back to this point [in] the Joe Biden presidency — he was 19 points underwater,” Enten said. “You go into Donald Trump’s presidency — hey, he started off in the positive territory at plus-6 points, but down he goes! Down the slide into the ocean he goes. Negative-20 points!”
“Donald Trump is actually in slightly worse position right now on the economy than Joe Biden was in his presidency,” Enten added. “And of course, Joe Biden, as I said at the top, the economy ate his presidency alive; and right now, it is eating Donald Trump’s presidency alive.”
The shift is politically significant because the economy has long been Trump’s most durable strength with voters, even during periods of controversy or political turmoil. The new numbers suggest that advantage has evaporated — and could now be a liability.
Enten tied the slide directly to historical patterns in midterm elections, warning that negative economic perceptions typically translate into heavy losses for the president’s party in the House, and potentially the Senate.
“If the president’s net approval rating on the economy is positive, which Donald Trump isn’t, you keep your House seats loss to a minimal,” Enten said. “You lose about nine seats on average.”
But when voters sour on the economy, he said, the picture changes dramatically.
“If it is negative — the president is not liked on the economy — if his net approval rating in the economy is negative, as it is right now for Donald Trump, look at the average House seat loss,” Enten said. “It’s a 28-seat loss on average, which would wave ‘Adios, amigos,’ ‘Goodbye,’ ‘See you later,’ [to] that House majority; and it probably would put the Senate majority in danger, as well.”
Republicans currently hold narrow margins in both chambers, leaving little room for erosion if economic dissatisfaction hardens over the coming months.
(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)
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3 Responses
I wouldn’t trust any polls, not now, not later. Questions are posed in a way to elicit a certain response, or are so vague or general that the results cannot be trusted. Plus, half the country hates Trump no matter what he does so add that to the mix and this is not surprising. Americans prove to be the stupidest electorate around. They get their info mostly from biased sources. And Yeshiva World just goes along with it. I live in this economy too and I see improvement and know what’s coming, and this poll seems to be ignorant of ANYTHING positive
While polls are dubious since changes such as smartphones and the internet made traditional polling methods (and most methods of gather social and economic statistics) obsolete, and no one has come up with a good solution. However the economy is hardly booming, and the perception of most people appears to be that finding a job is difficult, housing is much more expensive, and food prices are higher. Almost all presidents lose seats in midterms, and “it’s the economy, stupid” is factor that can’t be ignored (and Trump’s chaotic foreign policy including alienating allies, as well as his mass deportations of non-criminal aliens, aren’t helping).
For the economy to improve you need to grab the oil from other countries like Iran. You need to cut the budget going to nonsense. You need to stop funding all these wierd liberal art colleges and only fund medical schools that serve a purpose. More trade schools teaching plumbing,electric and carpentry needs to be funded. All these wierd liberal billions going into global warming must be stopped. All this crazy taxes on workers and truckers must stop. Groceries go up in price as truckers and manufacturers get hiked in expenses. They pass it on to the store who passes it on to the customer.