In his brief statement to the nation on Thursday night, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert denied having taken any illegal funds, stating, “I never took an agora” but added if he is indicted, he will step down from office, perhaps the first signal that his political future is limited at best. Olmert attempted to exhibit an air of righteousness, explaining the law does not compel him to step down if indicted, but he will nonetheless.

It should be remembered that only a partial lifting of the gag order occurred on Thursday, with many of the details of the investigation remaining in police hands at present.

According to reports following the lifting of the gag order surrounding the ongoing police investigation against the prime minister, it is alleged that he has received hundreds of thousands of dollars from NY businessman Moshe (Morris) Talansky since the two first met in 1993, when Talansky, now 75, assisted the prime minister in his Jerusalem mayoral campaign. Olmert allegedly received the illegal funds until 2006.

OLMERT MEETS TALANSKY IN JERUSALEM MAYORAL CAMPAIGN

Olmert did admit that he received assistance from Talansky in 1998, when he ran for reelection, as well as in 1999 and 2002, when he competed for a spot in the Likud Party lineup. Olmert insists Talansky assisted in recouping election debts and nothing illegal occurred.

When interviewed by reporters on Thursday, prior to the lifting of the gag order, Talansky, an American resident stated, “…I hope HaKodesh Baruch Hu will help us out of this.”

OLMERT SEEKS TO SHIFT RESPONSIBILITY TO MESSER

Olmert attempted to distance himself from any wrongdoing, stating his longtime colleague, confidant and attorney Uri Messer handled the monetary matters for him, stating with certainty that Messer undoubtedly did the right thing with the funds.

Police have already taken testimony from Talansky, who was visiting his children who live in Israel. He spent Pesach in the Holy Land. Attorney General Menachem Mazuz received special permission from the Jerusalem District Court to obtain testimony from Talansky in advance since he lives abroad.

LONGTIME AIDE AND CONFIDENT ZAKEN INVOLVED TOO

Also questioned was Shula Zaken, who has been at Olmert’s side for decades, working her way up to being his bureau chief after he was elected as prime minister. Zaken and Messer remain suspects in the case, seemingly involved but their exact roles remain uncertain at present. It is unlikely that Zaken is unaware of any illegal activities since she has been Olmert’s closest aide for decades.

MESSER SEEKING TO SAVE HIMSELF

According to a Friday morning Yediot Achronot report, Messer’s statements to investigators implicates both Olmert and Zaken, stating he did not receive immunity as a state witness, but he nevertheless is cooperating with police, complicating matters for the other suspects. Messer also served as Olmert’s attorney in a number of real estate deals, some of which are also under investigation by police. The current case involving Talansky is the fifth investigation against the prime minister, whose integrity rating has been quite low even before the announcement of the new current ‘bombshell’ case against him.

STATE COMPTROLLER SOUNDED THE ALARM IN 2007

It should be remembered that in 2007, State Comptroller Justice Mica Lindenstrauss released a damaging report against Olmert pertaining to his tenure as Minister of Industry & Trade in the Sharon government, also referring to Olmert’s real estate dealings.

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

The Knesset on Mondays routinely votes on no-confidence motions, which are defeated. One possibility would be getting 61 lawmakers to back a candidate to replace Olmert and a no-confidence motion passing with the simple majority. This would immediately topple the current administration. Remember however, this compels the 120-seat Knesset to obtain a majority for a replacement candidate, a most unlikely scenario.

The Knesset may also vote to dissolve itself and then, the current government would receive the status as an interim cabinet until national elections. This too requires standing behind a candidate, and usually, would involve the larger parties agreeing in advance on a date for elections.

Another scenario is if a criminal indictment is handed down against the prime minister. He already announced he will resign in such a case. One thing is for certain, that Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who heads the Labor Party, cannot serve as prime minister in this government since he is not a MK as is spelled out in the Basic Government Law.

Should Olmert announce his is stepping down; President Shimon Peres would call on a candidate whom he believes is capable of forming a government, to attempt to do so.

Olmert can also leave temporarily, self-imposed suspension due to his  “inability to perform his duties” for a limited time, which would open the way for his deputy to step in. the exact parameters of such a situation are not clearly defined in the Basic Law but with the support of the attorney general, is doable.

This is what occurred when former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon suffered a stroke, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz declared him temporarily unable to fill the responsibilities of office, at the time, a medical situation which was more easily defined.

Another recent case was former President Moshe Katsav, when the Knesset Committee approved his request to temporarily step down due to his “inability” to remain in office during the investigation against him.

Legal experts state in this case, the interpretation of the law vis-à-vis declaring the prime minister “unable to fulfill his duties” would fall in the lap of Mazuz.

In any event, should Olmert leave as “unable to fulfill his duties,” the mantle of leadership would be passed to Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who according to reports during recent days has been preparing herself for the move. This would leave Livni in charge for 100 days, during which Olmert must return to his office or the move becomes permanent. On day 101, it is viewed that the cabinet resigns and then a new government must be formed and a MK from the prime minister’s party must take his place until elections.

PARTIES PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS

What is certain is that the powerbrokers and doers in Labor, a coalition member, and Likud, the opposition leader, are looking at early elections and beginning to lay the groundwork for this eventuality.

CALLS FOR OLMERT TO STEP DOWN

MK (Labor), a coalition member, Shelly Yacimovitz stated, “The coalition with Olmert has come to an end,” adding if her party remains in government, it is nothing less then de facto approval of Olmert’s corrupt ways.

Labor Youth, the young guard faction of the Labor Party called on party leader Defense Minister Ehud Barak to pull Labor out of the government coalition immediately.

MK (Meretz) Zahava Gal-On, the party chairwoman, stated she is not disappointed since her expectations for Olmert were always quite low. She stated that morally speaking, Olmert’s administration has been a longtime failure, pointing the finger of blame at Kadima and Labor if they permit Olmert to remain in the leadership position.

MK (National Union) Prof. Aryeh Eldad, who heads the Knesset Ethics Committee, stated the nation cannot permit “bribe-takers to run the show”.

MK (Likud) Gideon Saar called on the prime minister to step down immediately following Olmert’s statements to the nation on Thursday night.

MK (National Union) Uri Ariel called on Olmert to suspend himself pending the outcome of the investigation against him.

OLMERT TRYING TO HANG ON

It appears that Olmert will use the ongoing negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and reported Israeli peace initiatives vis-à-vis Damascus to remain in office. He will speak of the complexity of the threats from Iran and Hizbullah, stating now is not the time to send the nation to the polls, warning against political instability.

SHARON WAS ALSO UNDER INVESTIGATION

While the charges against Olmert seem serious, one must remember that Ariel Sharon, while serving as prime minister, was charged with taking larger sums of money. Sharon was undergoing a number of serious investigations, including  Cyril Kern and the Greek Island Affair, involving Olmert too, but he did manage to remain in office until he suffered a stroke which permanently disabled him.

LABOR HOLD THE KEY FOR NOW

Ironically, the Labor Party is keeping Olmert alive by remaining in government. If Barak opts to remain, he destroys his own credibility many believe, but if they collapse the government, Barak’s chances in a national election are poor according to polls, and it is highly unlikely that he would land a senior cabinet post in a government headed by Binyamin Netanyahu, who according to polls would win an election if held today.

On the other hand, if the government is dissolved, Barak cannot be tapped to form a government as was reported, since he is not an MK.

SHAS MUST MAKE A DECISION TOO

It is possible that Shas will play a pivotal role, with the chareidi Sephardic party in a quandary, not wishing to serve in a government headed by a liberal female, Livni, but unwilling to make any move that would result in Netanyahu returning to power, remembering his economic policies that resulted in major cuts in monthly child allowance payments and yeshivas.

Shas prefers to permit the current situation to continue, but it must weigh the ramifications in the polls, since the party cannot back Olmert if the ongoing investigation results in a criminal indictment. In the last election, longtime Shas member Rabbi Shlomo Benizri was pushed back in the party lineup because of hints of an upcoming investigation against him, seeking to avoid a party minister being indicted in office. Benizri has since been indicted, convicted, and sentenced to prison. He became at least the fifth Shas member found guilty on corruption and bribery charges.

Whatever may be, US President George W. Bush is scheduled to arrive next week and until he leaves, it is unlikely that anything major will occur. Olmert will meet the president in the shadow of the allegations against him, and he will exhibit an air of ‘business as usual’ at least for the coming days.

(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)