Five months after the end of the 12-Day War between Israel, the United States, and Iran, new satellite analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) provides a clearer picture of the war’s impact on Iran’s nuclear program and what is happening inside these sites today.

Major Nuclear Facilities: Damaged and Mostly Silent

According to ISIS, the airstrikes severely damaged Iran’s most important uranium-enrichment facilities — the sites that produce nuclear fuel and can also make material suitable for weapons if highly enriched.

Natanz, Iran’s largest enrichment facility, was repeatedly bombed, including strikes by U.S. “bunker-buster” bombs. Its underground enrichment hall appears heavily damaged. ISIS reports no signs of repair or meaningful cleanup.

Fordow, buried deep inside a mountain, also shows little activity. Ventilation shafts essential to the site’s operation were destroyed and later filled in.

Esfahan, home to Iran’s ability to convert uranium into material needed for enrichment, remains badly damaged. ISIS notes that without this complex, Iran currently cannot produce the gas needed to power its centrifuges.

Based on available imagery, ISIS concludes that Iran does not appear able to enrich uranium in any significant quantity or manufacture the centrifuges needed to restart enrichment, representing a major setback to its nuclear capabilities.

Exception: New Activity at Esfahan’s Mountain Tunnels

The only major enrichment-related site showing new activity is the Esfahan mountain tunnel complex, which ISIS has long believed stored large quantities of enriched uranium. Satellite imagery now shows construction of protective barriers designed to block missile strikes and at least one tunnel entrance appears accessible. This could indicate efforts to secure high-value material or prepare the site for new operations.

Unanswered Question: Where Is Iran’s Enriched Uranium?

Before the war, Iran held large amounts of enriched uranium, including about 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium (close to weapons-grade) and additional stocks enriched to 20% and 5%.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been allowed to confirm whether these materials still exist in their original locations. ISIS notes reports from October indicating movement around some storage sites but, as of mid-November, the IAEA believes the stockpiles were not moved off-site — though they may have been transferred within the facilities or moved underground.

Weaponization-Linked Sites: Cleanup Instead of Abandonment

Unlike enrichment facilities, several sites linked to nuclear-weapons development work show active cleanup efforts. ISIS reports that at least three weaponization-related sites have been cleared of debris, and some equipment appears to have been salvaged — signs that Iran may be preparing to rebuild or may be sanitizing the sites to prevent future inspections from finding evidence.

A particularly concerning case is Taleghan 2, located at the Parchin military complex. Although it was not targeted during the June war (it was bombed in 2024), ISIS reports that the site is being rebuilt and now contains a large, cylindrical chamber resembling devices used to test explosives for nuclear weapons. This facility is now close to completion.

Construction Moves Forward at Pickaxe Mountain

ISIS also highlights ongoing construction at Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried tunnel system south of Natanz. Iran announced in 2020 that the site would house a facility capable of assembling thousands of centrifuges per year. ISIS has assessed that it may eventually hold a full enrichment plant as well.

Nearby, an older tunnel complex — possibly used to store enriched uranium — appears to have been sealed beneath layers of rock and concrete, which may indicate secure storage or concealment. ISIS notes that a truck was seen leaving the area on June 18, during the war, raising questions about whether nuclear material was moved there.

What Comes Next?

Iran has announced that it intends to rebuild what it calls its “peaceful” nuclear program. But ISIS concludes that rebuilding will be difficult. The destruction of key facilities, combined with renewed international sanctions and restrictions on nuclear-related imports, will make reconstruction slow and costly.

Persistent Unknowns

ISIS stresses that the international community still lacks answers to crucial questions:

• Where exactly are Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles today?
• How much underground damage remains?
• Is Iran rebuilding a nuclear weapons-testing capability?
• What is being hidden from inspectors?

Until Iran allows IAEA inspectors back into its facilities, ISIS notes that the world will rely on satellite imagery — a tool that reveals a great deal, but not everything.

For now, ISIS concludes that the 12-Day War significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program. But activity at key sites suggests Iran is laying groundwork to rebuild, keeping the future of its nuclear ambitions uncertain.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)