The Democratic Party is getting a blunt reminder that the math underneath American politic is not looking good for them.

The reminder came from Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, who used an upset Democratic special-election win as a jumping-off point to deliver a stark message about population trends that he said favor Republicans over the long haul.

“We often lose sight of the long term because we’re so focused on the short term,” Enten said Sunday on CNN Newsroom, speaking with anchor Jessica Dean. “So today I wanted to take a look at some long-term population trends.”

Those trends, Enten argued, “really should set off a flashing red siren to Democrats nationwide, while bringing a big smile to the faces of Republicans nationwide.”

The immediate backdrop was Saturday’s special election in a deep-red Texas state Senate district. Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a first-time candidate and local union leader, defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss — who had been endorsed by Donald Trump — by a decisive 57 percent to 43 percent. Trump had carried the district by more than 17 points in the 2024 presidential race, making Rehmet’s win a rare Democratic breakthrough.

But Enten cautioned against reading the result as a broader realignment. Since the 2020 Census, the five states with the biggest population gains — Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona — all voted for Trump in 2024.

“This is not just a red-state boom,” Enten said. “We’re also looking at what I would dare call a blue-state depression.”

The states with the lowest domestic net migration this decade, he noted, were California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts — all states won by Kamala Harris in 2024.

If those shifts persist through the 2030 Census, Enten said, the consequences could be significant. Based on current estimates, Democrats could lose seven seats in the U.S. House through reapportionment, with those seats moving to Republican-leaning states.

“That’s not just about the House,” Enten said. “It’s also about the Electoral College.”

Under the existing map, a Democrat winning the traditional blue states plus the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could scrape together 270 electoral votes — the bare minimum to win. Applying today’s population estimates, Enten said, that same coalition would fall short.

“You’d only get to 263 electoral votes,” he said. “Which would mean a Republican victory.”

The Census is still years away, and Enten stressed that population trends can change. But his conclusion was that even as Democrats notch headline-grabbing wins like the one in Texas, the demographic shifts reshaping political power may be quietly tilting the battlefield against them.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)