ubiquitin

AZ

Finally!

Yes to both 1 & 2

Not sure if you know this but there are people who were alive 15-20 years ago who can be asked about dating practices then.

The “Theory” I was referring to is B though I’d stick in main factor. It may play a minor role but hardly the main cause.

I am very excited to hear the pircha, since if it is good would knock of one of my two holes in the “age gap theory”

The other being the fact that the age-gap doesn’t explain “infrequent dating” Though this point has sort of been addressed. My other question as to how unchanged demographics can explain a new problem, was one you were afraid to tackle… until now?

I am really excited, good luck!

AZ

youre funny, youre (deliberetly?) taking her quote out of context. Her point isn’t cause and effect, rather she first emntions “Most shadchanim by Chasidim suggest the shidduch first to the party regardless of gender. It just happens to be that girls are asked first in their current dynamic.

don’t have the money and advertising clout NASI has, and anyway they wont be successful anyway (Thank God since it wouldn’t help the “crises” and would create new problems).

No I don’t think the system is this way because of NASI, I do think NASI worsens the problem by causing people to not consider other possibilities.

I don’t know why the chasisim go to both sides at the same time or to either side first. Anyway it doesn’t need an explanation since it is the more logical way to do it. As to why we do it this crazy way, It is to protect the feelings of girls since they now get rejected when their name is just on a guy’ list which is obviously less hurtful than when they put themselves out there by agreeing to go out with a guy already and then getting rejected.

Incidentally I love your funny approach to arguing, you only reply to my argument that pokes a hole in your “theory” once I agree your “theory” is correct. Strange but amusing.

I don’t get your “I guess you believe” line, do you think it was this way 15-20 years ago that the guy had to give the yes before the girl?

DY

No it doesn’t we have been through this. 300 dates should be enough dates for all 112 girls. (Again though not enough for 112 weddings) It does not explain why many “suffer from infrequent dating”

No demographics have not changed, yet the disparity was not the same. I’m curious though which component do you think changed was the population increase less? or were couples the same age?

I get that you don’t know, but you must have a hunch that is misguiding you, Im just curious which one it is

To be clear, This was clearer at the start but we have veered into a more narrow discussion. I am not saying the only thing that matters is who says yes first. The real problem is the entire rigidity of our recent dating system. The halacha that a guy must give the yes first is but one example, but try not to get too caught up on that.

Here is a useful rule of thumb: (for life too) When a complex problem is deemed to have an easy-quick-fix-solution, the simplistic solution will rarly solve the problem

AZ

I agree there is no need to learn up what an anonymous poster said. You however are sticking a lot into his/her post. The takeaway is that the dating process among chasisim is not as rigid as amongst us. The casue effect you lay out and the one you attribute to me may or may not be true but it doesn’t change anything. The truth is it would be hard to ascertain which came first unles we can trace back to when one of the two began. (hmmm in which population CAN we trace back a new rigid dating process in which the guy goes first, and the start of a shiduch crises, never mind I know and Im pretty sure you do to).

The point is by chasidim it is not always the boy who picks girls from a seemingly endless list. This is what Ive been saying all along and mamaleh’s anonymous comment supports and you agreed (though Im ready for you to change your mind when you realize this point)

AZ

not to worry. I already know why it is new and have been explaining it to you since the start of this discussion, and from the fact that you are afraid to discuss it makes it pretty clear that you do to, though you don’t want to acknowledge it since it throws a wrench in your “Theory”

Also you do realize mamale supports what I have been saying. That among chasidim the initial picking is not exclusively in the guys hands

Did you not get what (s)he said? Or have you not understood what I have been saying

You seem to agree with Mamale or now will you change your mind since his/her statement further dents your “theory”?

DY it is becasue that is how our shiduch is set up. It is crazy and must be changed. It was not always this way and among chasidim it isnt this way either. This is why the “shidduch crises” is a recent phenomena and why it doesnt exist by chasidim

I have been saying this since the get go.

MOP

The question is what to do. The “solution” of having boys date younger will not help the current “crises” at all. And I believe would introduce a new “divorce crises” TM

DY

You keep repeating that nonsense, A prerequisite to get married is dating. If girls can’t get dates, they wont get married no matter how many boys are available. If girls are having trouble getting dates when there are more than enough available, there is no way anything will change unless the problem of uneven dating is addressed (as much as possible).

The “solutions” offered by having people date closer in age wont solve that.

Unless you are suggesting strictly having everybody date ONLY theri age. Kind of like making it so there are 100 girls vying over 100 chairs after which the room is locked and nobody leaves until everybody gets a seat. I suppose in that imaginary situation the fact that 12 of the girl are hard of hearing wouldnt matter since they dont have any competition and have enough seats.

Is that your suggestion?

DY

They cant, nor did I ever say they can.

Im still waiting for an explanation as to how adding more boys who won’t date the 12 girls who aren’t getting dates will help all 112 get married.

Juboy613, I was asked

If I feel comfortable answering I answer If it is above my pay grade I’d pass it on.

This one was easy

AZ

The reason I’m having this conversation is that I dont think the numbers are THE issue. I think it is a cute chap that some well-meaning people have latched on to as the panacea to all shidduch related issues. This deprives us from having real converstions about deper falws in our dating process that I and others believe are the real source of the disparity.

As Ive expalined multiple times the reason the Age-gap can not possibly be THE cause of the crises is primarily two fold:

1) It does not at all explain the dating discrepecny that exists. There are enough dates for every girl yet many arent getting dates. Please understand this point dating is NOT done 1:1.

2) The age gap has always existed, yet the crises is new. Old demographic issues can not explain new crises.

Because of these two reasons (DY has attempted to explain why 1 was incorrect though unsuccessfully, nobody has attempted to explain why 2 is incorrect)Many dont view the age gap as a plausible.

Because of this I think it is important to oppose efforts to label the shiduch crises as the “age gap” because it detracts from what I and others beleive is the real issue. And thta is to get more girls more dates by coming up with ways to level the playing field. Adding more boys to date the girls who already have dates will hardly help at all,

The key is to get the girls who have trouble getting dates more dates.

(Plus i think convincing immature boys to date is a terrible terrible idea, though I do concede that, there is room to disagree on that issue, so I have not brought it up until now, though it is another underlying reason why I oppose the “solution” focusing on the “age gap” issue though again I do believe reasonable people can disagree on this point).

Why do you oppose giving girls equal footing in the shidduch process. I.e. convince shadchanim to supply girls with lists of potential dates have them research etc and approach boys with a girls who already said yes, thus giving that girl a leg up compared to the other grils the boy has on his list?

DY,

granted.

Though getting more chairs wouldn’t help either unless the hearing was addressed as well.

That is essentially my point. The lack of chairs isnt enough to explain why the same group is never getting a seat after multiple rounds, there is something else going on like hearing. (Both becuase the number of chairs hasnt changed recently Though th way the game is played has) Thus getting more chairs wont help them at all, while hearing aids would help THEM ie give them an equal shot. Though overall some players would still be left out.

Focusing on the numeber of chairs when some cant even hear the music stopping is a fruitless exercise.

That is my point

AZ

1. Depends how accurate it is your response about chassidim was not accurate but at least you tried. I’m curious why you wont even try to address why it is a new phenomena.

2. It is simplistic beacuase its not just 110 girls vying for 100 chairs there are many other variables. Chairs and players are constatnly being added. The “game” contiues indefinity. To take a snapshot in time and pretend ALL 100 23 year old boys are ALL vying for 110 20 year old girls. and once the music stops the 10 remaining will never get a chance to play again, is not an accurate model for the shidduch system. Some boys start the game earlier some later, some drop out in middle for whatever reason some go for chairs that have been hanging out a while some prefer new chairs that have just been added etc etc and most importantly the game can keep going and going with new players and chairs constantly being added

If the same group of girls are consistently left standing after every round it is time to check their hearing.

3. They dont chasidim are a year or two older than their spouses. you made up that they enter the dating pool at the same time.

Anyway even taking the disastrous position of having boys dating younger, thus equalizig the playing field what is the plan to help the 3,000 older singles?

If you arent willing to have discussions about the fallacies of your argument, how can we get anywhere.

My bringing up historical precedent is to demonstrate that your “theroy” is flawed. How can you be unwilling to discuss a giant gaping hole in your theory.

Getting dates will move things along as it has in the past, that is my point. Nothing has changed in demographics (obviously we nay have grown but that would be equal to boys and girls)I can only assume you agree with his since after repeated questioning you wont discuss it I assume because you realize what a gaping hole it blows in your theory). what has changed is our method of dating. Thus by examining our method, and where the backlog is (which you agree to) And then (and this is key!) examining what has CHANGED historically. We can discuss how to correct the problem and undo the change.

The musical chairs isnt a simple game of musical chairs. This is a more complex game with a many variables, chairs being added and removed for a variety of reasons, more importantly the game never stops with one chair left more chairs and peope are constanly added! It keeps going and going. Boiling it down to 100 girls vying over 110 chairs is too simpistic and not accurate. And even in that situation if the same 10 girls are left standing every time the music stops. You would be right to check their hearing or something, and not simply saying well we are 10 seats short so obviously SOME people will be left standing. Sure but why is it so slanted and more importnalty how can we make the game more fair.

Also chasidim dont marry girls their age there is almost always at least 1 -2 year discrepancy.

AZ:

“without getting into why that is so and how it came about and if this is a relatively new phenomena or not”

This is absurd of course the hows and whys matter! You cant just ignore every hole in your “theory” and say nothing matters.

you then state “then it is obvious that girls at all ages will have difficulty getting dates” This is more nonsense since most guys date more than one girl and some a lot more. This has been expalined ad nauseuem. Thus age gap or no age gap There should be more than enough dates for all girls.

You ask

“girls age 19/20/21 should be easily able to date guys age 22/23/24. You would surely agree that the guys age 22/23/24 are not dating girls who are 30 years old. So if I may ask, how is it, that the number of guys who start dating at 22 and are still single post 24 is far fewer than the girls who started dating at 19 and are still single at post 21. I mean the girls 19/20/21 could date guys not just 22-24 but they could in theory date guys even 25/26/27 ????”

im so glad you asked! It is becuas the way our sytem is set up the guy picks who to go out with, while the girl sits there waiting/davening that she will be picked. Thus some girls are receieving “more than their share” of dates while others suffer from “relativley infrequent dating” as The article DY posted earlier put it.

As to your next question the older guys do have competition! Though since girls sit waiting hoping to get a call, if they are chosen by 30 year old they may agree to go otu since nobody else called. Obviously if at the smae time a girl got a yes froma 24 year old, other things being equal she will generally pick the younger one.

As to your next question, because for whatever reason, she had access to less dates, when younger. (Obviously this isnt always true but it generally holds true).

Yes there is a question you havent answered, you havent addressed why this is new, what changed? Was it the age discrepancy? or the yearly increase in population? Or something else

DY,

giving all girls dates might not help them ALL get married, and we will cross that bridge when we get there. (My guess is enough guys marry girls their age or older to alleviate the “gap”)

So you agree chasidim have a “age gap” albeit smaller but no crises. According to your numbers at 4% increase pr year even if 19 year olds are marrying 18 year olds, that should leave 4% of chassidish girls unmarried.

What you are missing is you are skipping to the end of the process whent he backlog is earlier.

Shidduchim is a process. A girl/guy wont get married until they o through the ENTIRE thing. You can not skip a step. I outlined the steps before I will do so again:

a. Shadchan suggests girls to the boys side.

b. Boy looks into girl(s) and agrees to go out with one

c. Girl who has been chosen looks into guy and agrees to go out with him

d. They go out for a few weeks

e. They get engaged

f. They get married

Do you have any quibles with the above outline?

assuming you dont. In your opinion/experience at which stage is the biggest problem. Obviously this is the first step to determine the cause of the “crises” (Sure their are those who get stuck at each step along the way for example engagements that dont make it to marriage e -> f, but i dont think anybody would say that is where all these single girls get stuck).

The article you quoted, and I agree, that the BIGGEST (not only) backlog is a -> b.

What do you think?

AZ feel free to answer too

AZ,

I am still amused since in an effort to promote this “age gap” nonsense you are now making stuff up. Chasidim are generally older than their wives. Granted not as much as among their Litvish counterparts but older nonetheless. According to the “age gap” theory why wouldnt they have a shiduch crises albeit less than in the yeshiva world?

Nice try but no cigar.

hint: Compare the way they date vis a vis the way the yeshiva world dates. There you will find a significant difference.

Also note that you have yet to address why this “crises” is new. Although if you will resort to making stuff up, Id rather you didnt and just say you dont know.

I told you I dont know the reality though i am willing to accept that there are more older single girls than guys. This is logical and inevitible and likely not to change since guys have an easier time marrying people younger than they. Age gap or no age gap. thus for example a 30 year old guy is likely to marry any girl in ages 23 – 30 (very rough estimate obviously) while a 30 year old girl has little chance at marrying anybody younger than say 28. (Although obviously anything is possible, here i am discussing liklihood. Thus as they age it gets harder for Girls to marry than for guys thus obviously there will be more single girls.

You can call it the definition of the crises, it is still wrong as Ive explained.

while asking if i agree, I’m curious if you agree with the assertion that there are many girls (at all ages) who are having trouble getting dates (I have taken a stance on your observation twice as of this post)

AZ, unsure but it is irrelevant.

If I had to guess I’d say there are more girls (though I and my family know of more boys so I cant be sure) simply because Men tend to marry women younger than they.

Though as explained at length this has little to nothing to do with the “crises” in its current form which stems from the fact that women aren’t getting dates in spite of the fact that there are plenty available.

Now your turn to answer a question or 2, why would chassidim not have this “crises” Is it because they marry the the same age or their numbers arent increasing?

Similarily why the sudden talk of “Crises” which of the above variables changed?

Dy,

boys arent limited there are always new ones entering the pool, the numbers aren’t stagnant.

focusing on the numbers is a sham. The numbers have not changed.

What has changed is the rigidity involved in dating, the amount of research that goes into each date, and limting of venues for boys/girls to meet. The way our shiduch system is set up, the ball is complelty in the guy’s court and the girls are at their mercy. This allows boys to reject girls for inane reasons, read the Yated’s shiduch forum you will find plenty. (example a few weeks ago there was talk of someone rejecting a girl because her father wore blue shirts to work). However becuase it is so rigid and the girl cant really make a move before the boy does, thus out of 112 girls many arent getting dates, and obviously wont get married. Limiting the number of boys wont change that unless some other societal norms are changed.

Note they dont have to be “left-ward” changes getting rid of dating and just setting up pairing up boys and girls likre chasidim too wold get rid of the crises too. This is why they dont hve a crises. They have the same “age-gap” yet no crises, what they do different is their style of dating, whcih is what we do differently compared to our parents as well.

Dy

hooray so we agree “If she expects a mothers day wish There is a mitzvah deorisa to wish her happy mothers day.”

change expect to appreceiate, point is the same.

We have been through this, I know he says that but it doesn’t make sense. note how he switches what he is addressing in his piece he first identifies the problem as “infrequent dating” His mathematical model addresses a “situation in which elements of two distinct sets (think of single men and single women) may be paired in a one-to-one manner (think of marriage)” dating is not done 1:1

It cant be a result of the gap. I will walk you through it very slowly, please let me know which point confuses you:

1) dating is a prerequisite to marriage

2) 100 23 year old boys are trying to date 112 20 year old girls

3) On average a boy dates 3 girls

4) That means there are 300 (3x 100) dates available to the 112 girls.

5) Assuming things are equal Each girl should receive a rougly equal number of dates.

6) “many single women struggle with short lists and relatively infrequent dating”

7) Without daing these girls who aren’t being chosen for dates (despite the overabundance of dates available) will not get married (see point 1)

8) This has little to do with the “age gap”. Since even with the “age gap” There are more than enough dates to go around.

Which point confuses you/ do you disagree with?

DY

If the issue wasnt a lack of dates ie girls were getting a roughly equal number of dates, yet some just werent getting married. Then, MAYBE the “age gap” could explain the problem.

Similarly if Guys dated only one girl.

DY,

Furthermore keep in mind the key to all this is determining what has changed that there is a crises now

Is the “age gap” new?

Or is the increase in, as you put it, “common criteria” new?

DY out of the 112 girls the 300 dates that the 100 guys can provide (assuming an average of 3 which admittedly I got from a very un-scientific poll) Should more than cover all girls. The issue shouldnt be girls struggling with “short lists and relatively infrequent dating” All girls should get an equal number of dates though a few dont get married.

The calculations made in his article assume a “situation in which elements of two distinct sets (think of single men and single women) may be paired in a one-to-one manner (think of marriage)” This holds true for marriage but not dating. By far most Guys date more than one girl And some a lot more.

Therfore the age gap can not be used to explain why girls aren’t getting dates.

what is happening is within the set of 112 girls some girls are getting a lot more dates (with the 100 guys) than others. Some hardly get any. This has absolutely nothing to do with the “Age gap” Needless to say if girls have trouble getting dates they will have a harder time getting married. But again this is not because of the “age gap”

In short, the boys are going out with a subset of the available girls. Not because there aren’t enough boys.

Dy You are right my point 2 is not the best since it applies ot the girls I misspoke. If 11% of Girls marry their age or younger their is no age gap, but admittedly that is probably the case and is impractical. Although it does mitigate the “age gap” somewhat

as to the the fertility rate I dont want to google anything, those numbers are irrelevant since they have little bearing on frum society. The numbers that matter are frum high school graduates (These are not the actual numbers we care about but are the closest that can be accurately obtained)

At any rate my point #3 still stands. The problem is girl aren’t getting dates. This has nothing to do with the “age gap”

Mop we dont!

Many don’t buy in to the “age gap theory” or at best view it as (a minor) part of the problem.

consider the following:

1) why can’t they provide real numbers it cant be that hard to ask a few schools to anonymously report how many students are in their graduating classes. We aren’t stupid we can handle numbers they claim a 4% growth rate where did this number come from? Ami magazine ran a several page “expose” on the “age gap” Not one real number was thrown out just colorful bubbles demonstrating a growth rate several magnitudes higher than any imagined by “age gap” proponents

2)Even Accepting their numbers the problem only holds true if ALL boys marry girls 3 years younger. If as little as 11% marry girls their age or older there is no “age gap” If less than that marry girls their age or older or girls a little younger than themselves the “age gap” would become an even more minor problem. Ask around this is certainly the case.

3) The shidduch process in our community works something like this: shadchan suggests girl, boy’s side looks into her, Boys side agrees, girls side looks in and agrees, they date, get engaged and married. Asking around the problem in the chain is that girls arent getting enough dates. (Generally, admitedly I dont have real data to back up this anecdotal evidence but hey neither do the :age gap” proponents).

Now going back to the numbers pushed by the “age gap” people assuming a 4% growth rate, that means 112.5 23 year olds are trying to marry 100 20 year old girls. The average guy dates 3 girls (some less some mouch more) that means 112.5 guys go on 337.5 dates. That is more than enough dates for all 100 girls. Yet the gilrs who arent getting married arent getting dates either. This cant be explained by the “age gap” at all