The United States could see its population shrink for the first time in history this year, according to new projections, as immigration numbers fall off a cliff under President Donald Trump’s second term.

An analysis by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) warns that net international migration could drop to as low as negative 525,000 in 2025. With the Census Bureau reporting a net of 519,000 births last year, the numbers point to a possible decline of about 6,000 people nationwide — the first population loss in nearly 250 years.

Even during the bloodiest chapters of U.S. history — the Civil War, which left 700,000 dead, and the COVID-19 pandemic — the population has always continued to inch upward. A reversal now would mark a demographic milestone without precedent.

The AEI report forecasts immigration falling from roughly 2.8 million to somewhere between 115,000 and negative 525,000 this year, a collapse of as much as 96 percent, according to figures cited by The Telegraph.

The trend has already been documented by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, which found that the U.S. immigrant population dropped by 1.4 million in the first six months of 2025 — the steepest decline in half a century. That contraction coincided with Trump’s opening salvo of his second term: a sweeping border crackdown.

The Department of Homeland Security said last month that 1.6 million illegal migrants have voluntarily left the U.S. since January. Federal immigration authorities also reported arresting more than 359,000 migrants and deporting 332,000 during Trump’s first 200 days back in office.

The potential for outright population loss underscores the scale of the immigration collapse. Since the founding era, immigration has been central to U.S. growth, helping offset slowing birth rates and anchoring the workforce. The AEI numbers suggest that, for the first time, departures and deaths could outpace arrivals and births combined.

AEI’s projection signals a striking break from the past. The Alien Enemies Act, Civil War casualties, even a once-in-a-century pandemic — none produced a nationwide population decline. Now, with immigration at modern lows, the U.S. is staring at the possibility of a reversal that demographers say could reshape economic and political debates alike.

The Department of Homeland Security has not responded to the AEI report.

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