Report: Hamas Does Not Plan to Release Gilad Shalit

According to a report appearing in the London-based Arabic-language al-Shark al-Awsat newspaper, Hamas does not have any intentions of releasing captive IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, even if Israel complies with demands to release 1,000 terrorists from prison.

It appears that Hamas is interested in showing the Arab world, particularly residents of PA (Palestinian Authority) autonomous areas, that it is capable of orchestrating prisoner releases as did Hizbullah. Hamas is particularly interested in expanding its influence to PA areas throughout Yehuda and Shomron, currently under the rule of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and his Fatah Party.

To that end, Hamas is working towards obtaining the release of 1,000 terrorists, announcing Israel’s compliance with demands will result in the release of Shalit, who just marked his third Rosh Hashanah in captivity. Shin Bet intelligence however does not agree the newspaper reports, stating that intelligence officials warn that even if the terrorists are released, Hamas has no intentions of releasing Shalit.

The report discusses numerous recommendations from the Shin Bet, more along the line of a hard-line stance, including a total closure of Gaza in response to future rocket attacks and a possible major IDF military incursion into Hamas-controlled Gaza. The intelligence community is recommending that Israel end the ceasefire, which is serving Hamas’ interests, permitting the terror organization to continue rehabilitating itself and importing weapons and ammunition from Egypt, using the major underground tunnel system that has been constructed since Israel’s retreat from Gaza in 2005.

Many senior IDF commanders have commented that while the ceasefire also serves Israeli interests, it is indeed providing Hamas with the opportunity to prepare for the next armed conflict with the IDF, which is more a case of “when” and not “if”. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi has been preparing the army for such an eventuality, which according to the most conservative of estimates will be an extremely difficult and costly battle for IDF soldiers.

Hamas now represents a formidable opposition, with its fighters having attained a proficiency in urban warfare. In addition, Israel is aware that Hamas has also recently acquired advanced anti-aircraft weaponry which presents additional challenges for the Israel Air Force operating over Gaza.