For the first time in 15 years, nuclear experts say Iran has no identifiable path to producing weapons-grade uranium at any of its known centrifuge plants — the result of a U.S. bombing campaign ordered by President Donald Trump this summer.
In a new assessment, David Albright, a former International Atomic Energy Agency inspector and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, concluded that “Operation Midnight Hammer” — Trump’s June air campaign targeting Iran’s enrichment facilities — destroyed or disabled nearly 22,000 centrifuges across three sites, including the deeply buried Fordow plant.
“In essence, the attacks destroyed Iran’s gas centrifuge enrichment program,” Albright’s report states. “Iran has no identifiable route to produce weapon-grade uranium in its centrifuge plants.”
The strikes marked a turning point in a shadow war that has stretched across decades. For years, Israel lobbied Washington to hit Iran’s hardened facilities. Trump, fresh off his confrontation with Tehran following Israel’s 12-day war with Iran, finally authorized the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators — the Pentagon’s largest bunker-buster bombs — to take out sites U.S. intelligence judged were out of Israel’s reach.
Trump wasted no time in declaring victory, telling supporters Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely and totally obliterated.” Tuesday’s analysis gives his boast backing. But it also comes with a caveat: uncertainty.
Because Iran cut off cooperation with the IAEA in the wake of the bombings, outside experts have little visibility into the country’s stockpiles of enriched uranium or whether undisclosed centrifuges remain operable. “Calculating a breakout time would require unsubstantiated speculation,” Albright’s team cautioned, noting the possibility of centrifuges built but not yet deployed.
Administration officials seized on the report as validation nonetheless. “Your friendly reminder that Iran’s nuclear capabilities are OBLITERATED!” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly posted shortly after the findings were released.
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