With less than a week before the general elections for prime minister and the 18th Knesset, the daily Yisrael HaYom shows Likud will take the election with 30 seats.
Following Likud is Kadima with 24 seats, Yisrael Beitenu (17), Labor (16), Shas (9), New Meretz (6), Yahadut HaTorah (5), Hadash (5), Ra’am-Ta’al (3), Ichud Leumi (3), Bayit Yehuda (2). This breakup leaves a right-wing with 66 seats and the left-wing with 54.
Some of the questions asked of the 972 respondents on Wednesday, February 4, 2009, representing a cross-section of Israeli adults as follows: (margin of error +/- 2.9%)
How sure are you that you will get out and vote?
58% – without a doubt
34% – perhaps
8% – no chance
Have you decided which party you are voting for?
I know at present – 73%
15% – I haven’t yet decided
12% – Not planning to vote
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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One Response
That means Bayit Yehudi doesn’t make the threshold and loses its seats. Also “right wing” is a dubious concept (refers to the side of the French parliament one sat on 230 years ago, before we could vote).
Based on those numbers, the likely government is a coalition under the control of the major secular parties. The pro-Jewish parties, together with Likud, have only 41 seats. A coalition of Likud, Kadimah and Labor and/or Lieberman would not need support from the Jewish parties.
Fortunately, such polls tend to underrepresent religious and Sefardi, and over represent secular Ashkenazim, so the results might be a lot more favorable for the Torah world.