Radical left-wing Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani holds a double-digit lead in the race for New York City mayor, according to a new Manhattan Institute poll released Tuesday � even as a majority of New Yorkers disagree with his most progressive policy proposals.

The survey of 600 likely voters found Mamdani with 43 percent support, well ahead of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo�s 28 percent and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa�s 19 percent, with 10 percent undecided. That 15-point advantage marks the largest lead yet recorded for the Democratic Socialist nominee, widening the gap seen in other late-October polls.

Yet beneath those numbers lies what pollsters called a �striking dissonance�: New Yorkers may be prepared to elect Mamdani, but they reject nearly every key plank of his platform.

Despite Mamdani�s strong showing, the poll suggests his victory could come without majority support � continuing a decades-long pattern of plurality mayors in New York. No candidate has won a majority of the vote since John Lindsay in 1969.

In head-to-head matchups, Mamdani�s lead narrows considerably, the poll found. Against Cuomo alone, he leads 44�40 percent, within the margin of error. Against Sliwa, Mamdani maintains a broader 47�33 percent advantage, reflecting the city�s deep Democratic tilt.

Still, the survey highlights an electorate deeply skeptical of Mamdani�s progressive ideas.

Voters overwhelmingly oppose his proposal to make city buses free, with 58 percent warning it would turn the transit system into �rolling homeless shelters.� Only one in three backed eliminating fares entirely. Roughly six in ten respondents said they favored tougher enforcement of subway fare evasion, a stance Mamdani has publicly opposed.

Likewise, large majorities said they supported repealing New York�s 2019 bail reform law, backed harsher penalties for fare-jumpers, and favored merit-based admissions in public schools � all policies that cut against Mamdani�s platform and the Democratic Socialists of America�s agenda.

The former governor�s independent bid continues to attract moderates and disaffected Democrats, and the poll suggests Cuomo could still mount a comeback if the anti-Mamdani vote consolidates.

If Sliwa � who trails in the single digits among Democrats and independents � were to exit the race, the contest would tighten significantly, according to pollsters.

�Mamdani�s lead is real but fragile,� said Jonathan Schell, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who oversaw the poll. �His coalition is younger, more progressive, and more diverse � but not particularly deep. A small shift among moderates could turn this into a one- or two-point race.�

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