Radical left-wing Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani holds a double-digit lead in the race for New York City mayor, according to a new Manhattan Institute poll released Tuesday — even as a majority of New Yorkers disagree with his most progressive policy proposals.

The survey of 600 likely voters found Mamdani with 43 percent support, well ahead of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s 28 percent and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa’s 19 percent, with 10 percent undecided. That 15-point advantage marks the largest lead yet recorded for the Democratic Socialist nominee, widening the gap seen in other late-October polls.

Yet beneath those numbers lies what pollsters called a “striking dissonance”: New Yorkers may be prepared to elect Mamdani, but they reject nearly every key plank of his platform.

Despite Mamdani’s strong showing, the poll suggests his victory could come without majority support — continuing a decades-long pattern of plurality mayors in New York. No candidate has won a majority of the vote since John Lindsay in 1969.

In head-to-head matchups, Mamdani’s lead narrows considerably, the poll found. Against Cuomo alone, he leads 44–40 percent, within the margin of error. Against Sliwa, Mamdani maintains a broader 47–33 percent advantage, reflecting the city’s deep Democratic tilt.

Still, the survey highlights an electorate deeply skeptical of Mamdani’s progressive ideas.

Voters overwhelmingly oppose his proposal to make city buses free, with 58 percent warning it would turn the transit system into “rolling homeless shelters.” Only one in three backed eliminating fares entirely. Roughly six in ten respondents said they favored tougher enforcement of subway fare evasion, a stance Mamdani has publicly opposed.

Likewise, large majorities said they supported repealing New York’s 2019 bail reform law, backed harsher penalties for fare-jumpers, and favored merit-based admissions in public schools — all policies that cut against Mamdani’s platform and the Democratic Socialists of America’s agenda.

The former governor’s independent bid continues to attract moderates and disaffected Democrats, and the poll suggests Cuomo could still mount a comeback if the anti-Mamdani vote consolidates.

If Sliwa — who trails in the single digits among Democrats and independents — were to exit the race, the contest would tighten significantly, according to pollsters.

“Mamdani’s lead is real but fragile,” said Jonathan Schell, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who oversaw the poll. “His coalition is younger, more progressive, and more diverse — but not particularly deep. A small shift among moderates could turn this into a one- or two-point race.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)