While statements are being released against the formation of a government coalition including Likud and Kadima, backroom talks towards achieving this very goal are most likely taking place.

Both leading parties are interested in forming a government that will lead to a change in the form of government, to permit the next administration to live out a full term, something that has not occurred in a number of administrations, something that seems highly unlikely today. Another reason, the formation of a coalition with Likud, Kadima, and Labor would significantly dilute the power held by chareidi parties today, something they both view as a wanted added benefit.

According to journalist Ben Caspi, this is exactly what is taking place, adding that a senior government minister telephoned Labor leader Ehud Barak on Thursday and asked if he would be open to such an arrangement in principle, assembling a coalition with the centrist parties and thereby leaving Lieberman in opposition. The minister added he was speaking in the name of Likud leader Netanyahu. It appears that public statements aside, there are many willing to support such an arrangement under certain conditions, including some Laborites who to date have openly rejected sitting in a Likud-run coalition. They are aware such a coalition may accomplish implementing a reform in the governmental system and prevent the establishment of an “extremist coalition”.

According to a report in the daily HaMevaser, the minister confirmed the information.

Such an arrangement would permit addressing a change in government, the main goal of the coalition, and would demand that Kadima maintains senior cabinet posts, including defense and foreign affairs. The arrangement however does not currently enjoy the approval of Kadima leader Tzipi Livni. However Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik, who is close to Livni and headed the party’s campaign, supports the idea, as does Kadima Minister Chaim Ramon.

They feel this is the best of the alternatives available rather than opting for the opposition from the onset and waiting until a Likud/Yisrael Beitenu coalition falls.

It is being reported that in conversations with close colleagues, Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu has expressed his anger of Lieberman’s unwillingness to announce who he plans to recommend for the coalition mandate to President Peres. Making matters worse, his decision to opt to leave for Minsk at this critical time for a week of vacation has the Likud leader perturbed.

Some Likudniks also fee that Lieberman is also trying to ‘use’ Netanyahu to get back at Shas, which waged a vehement anti-Yisrael Beitenu campaign and besmirched Lieberman as being anti-Jewish, hoping to lock Shas out of a coalition or at least making certain the chareidi party receives only relatively insignificant cabinet posts.

Including Lieberman in a Likud coalition will be no easy task for a number of reasons, including the civil marriage demands, which negate Shas’ platform as well as many Likud MKs who are traditional and unlikely to support such a position. Likud also views Shas as a more natural coalition partner, ahead of Lieberman.

Kadima on the other hand cannot agree to Shas’ demands to abandon talks on compromise on Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, key points in her campaign, especially as she went to elections after refusing to capitulate to Shas’ demands to commit to halt talks on Jerusalem when she tried forming a government in Sept. 2008.

Likud views Lieberman as being locked into a box since he will have difficulty entering a Likud or Kadima coalition, unless he goes the route he took in the Olmert administration, in which he listed his platform and conditions for entering, with the realization nothing tangible would result. Likud negotiators point out that Yisrael Beitenu sat in the Olmert government that went to the Annapolis Conference even though it was in contradiction to the coalition agreement signed upon entering the coalition.

Kadima Party Minister Ze’ev Boim has already come out publically with statements realizing Binyamin Netanyahu will form the next government. Boim, who is close to Minister Shaul Mofaz, met with Mofaz on Thursday and the two have undertaken to work towards Kadima’s inclusion in a Likud coalition to prevent a right-wing government, which they feel will result in a freeze in ongoing diplomatic processes. Kadima Minister Yaakov Edri has mimicked their position.

Perhaps joining the coalition bandwagon is MK Tzachi Hanegbi of Kadima, who heads the Knesset Foreign Affairs & Defense Committee, who over the weekend called on Likud and Kadima to work it out towards forming a coalition.

There are still opponents however, including Kadima’s Minister of Absorption Eli Aflalo, who points out the voters who supported Kadima do not wish to see the party sitting in a government headed by Binyamin Netanyahu. “If there is no rotation agreement, then we must go to opposition” he added. “Likud needs Kadima no less than Kadima needs Likud. We mustn’t be pulled into such an arrangement,” Aflalo concluded.

In official statements, Likud denies a willingness to give the defense and foreign ministry portfolios to Kadima in a coalition agreement.

(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)