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Not sure about the whole mask thing to begin with but just a word on antibody testing.
Many of the tests (especially the earlier ones) had very high false positive rates. They were in the 5%-10% range. That doesnt sound high but in terms of false positives that can be very significant. Not sure where you live but if you dont live in NYC area, then the percent of population that had Covid is probably about 3% or so. If you assume that, then a test with a 10% false positive rate means that if you come back positive you have less than 25% chance (3/13) of actually having it. So the test is almost meaningless.
Even with a 5% false positive rate, with a 3% population rate you would have 3/8 chance of having it (37.5%) if you came back positive.
If you live in NYC where the population rate is about 25%, then it is much more meaningful even with 5-10% false positives.Health – according to you we should have a tour month lockdown every year. There are thousands of deaths every year from flu.
As for the vaccine argument – according to your logic it is not a valid point. The flu vaccine is generally about 45% effective. Depending on the year it can be 30-60% effective based on how well they guess the strain.
Additionally, about 25% of flu deaths are from people who were vaccinated. These are CDC numbers. So there are about 10,000 flu deaths every year from people who were vaccinated. According to you we should shut down for four months every year. But we don’t. Because the Torah doesn’t tell us to. That’s not how the Torah looks at public policy.
We are not directly killing people here. It’s not like one specific person will definitely die. In that case we don’t kill him. But here we are just talking about random people who may get sick and die. Much different.Just to clarify – the numbers I quoted above (deaths and cases) for NY State only. There is no reason to assume the mortality rate would be higher any other part of the country.
The doctor is 100% correct. I am not a doctor but i do work with numbers all day and the numbers definitely agree with him. If you do some basic calculations of the mortality rate you will see young ppl should not be kept isolated.
Very simple calculation. As of a couple days ago when I did this, there were 3 deaths from age 0-9, 8 from 10-19, 71 from age 20-29, and 281 from age 30-39. Sounds like a lot.
However, the antibody testing showed that 14.9% of the population of NY State had Covid. If we take the population distribution of those groups and take 14.9% you get this – 0-9 had 345,647 cases; 10-19 had 384,082; 20-29 had 415,876; and 30-39 had 377,459.
So in total, for ppl under 40, there were 363 deaths in 1,523,064 cases. A mortality rate of .0002383
To give perspective on the number, the odds of being struck by lightning are .0003333. in other words you have about 50% higher chance of being struck by lightning as you do from dying of Covid. And this is assuming you got it for sure, if only 33.3% of population gets it then your chances are 1/3 of that.
We don’t make policy decisions that will impact millions of people based on things that are extremely unlikely. What we need to do is focus all our resources on the old and weakened immune system people. And nursing homes. That’s where the real issue is.
People see large numbers and don’t know how to process them. They don’t have perspective. I realize it is terrible that we are having 1-2 thousand deaths a day from this. I don’t mean to minimize it. But, do you know that last year an average of 7,800 ppl died every day in the US. The entire year. We are a very large country of 330 million ppl. Of course each life is precious and we try to do whatever we can to save it. But from a public policy perspective we don’t make 35,000,000 ppl lose their parnassah for these numbers.
This doesn’t even take into account the fact that there are alarming statistics regarding cancer patients not going and hospitals delaying important surgeries. Each year about 600k ppl die in US from cancer. If this causes a 20% jump in cancer deaths that would be 125,000 extra deaths. And 1 in 5 suicides is related to job loss. It’s very likely that the lockdown actually will cause more deaths in addition to the economic harm (which has its own long term effects).Those 40 or so studies (which have serious flaws in and of themselves) are the list that comes from all the non-GMO people. The problem is that there have been 1700+ studies (mostly way more robust than the studies listed) which have shown there is no difference in safety between GMO and non-GMO.
If you run enough studies (especially with small sample sizes like the 40 studies shown) you will end up with some results that can show a certain result.
Just as an example, the first study quoted was with 36 mice. 18 male and 18 female. those were divided into 3 groups – control, non-GMO corn, GMO corn. So, the results showed some differences in organ weight for males on GMO corn. That is a group of 6 mice.Not so statistically significant. (aside from the fact that it is not necessarily bad for then to be larger mice)
The larger studies done have at least in the hundreds of animals. A much more statistically significant study.
Somehow the thousands of larger studies seem to be forgotten.
Also, not sure where your information on Europe bans are coming from but the EU released a paper in which they spent about 300 millions euros on studying the impacts for 10 years and said it is 100% safe.You can try looking at Norton Family. There is a free version. Its not perfect but it is pretty decent.
Anything from Dveykus. Slow and inspiring is what they are.
The problems with Sanders are numerous. However, in regards to this specific question looking at recent history doesnt bode well for an atheist in position of power. Some of the wonderful atheist leaders of the past century include: Hitler, Stalin, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, Fidel Castro. All of those are Socialist/Communist atheists. Not a great list.
Great alternative is a deconstructed sushi salad. It has components of sushi but none of the hassles of rolling and/or other preparations.
Basically, make some rice (no need for fancy rice – regular white will do).
Put on bottom of plate. Top with: diced cucumbers, avocados, and the fake crab. Top it all off with crushed french’s fried onions.
For the sauces: sprinkle some soy sauce. Then top with sweet sauce (aka Unagi or eel sauce) and spicy mayo.
Its seems like a lot of work but its really not. And it is really good.
Note: You can get the sweet sauce at kosher supermarkets in the sushi section or there are commercial brands too like Kikkoman.
Try Hebrewbooks.org
They definitely have all of shas but not sure if they have it in one download.
As a side note they have tons of seforim scanned in. Useful site.
I think that mild dehydration is a major reason for the headache. If that is the case you will be the most dehydrated at the end of the fast having gone the most time without liquids. I don’t think that hydration instantly kicks in the second you break your fast so your body will be the most dehydrated as you are breaking it.
Other reason could be a sugar levels spiking. If you are eating lots of carbs after not eating anything you blood sugar (even for non-diabetics) could spike and maybe cause a headache.
Disclaimer: I am not a Medical Doctor and this could all be totally wrong. Just a guess.
Going back to the original question – there is a very good (and free) program that I use called openDns. It runs all traffic through its domain and checks it so any device connected to your internet will be filtered. No need for software on each device.
You can set different levels for different categories.
Its not 100% perfect but its a very good start.
Keep in mind the babysitting aspect of cleaning. If a mother has a child (or more) at home, then in order to work they need to pay a babysitter. In that case, it would not be worth it to take a cleaning job as the rate is pretty much the same as babysitting.
The people who don’t have young kids tend to be older in which case they might not want the physical labor of cleaning all day.
He’s not really feeling the pain. He’s just pretending to feel the woodsman’s pain. Basically they hate the tree so they claim to “feel” the woodsman’s pain as an excuse for being against the tree.
Exactly as it is with EU/UN.
Matan1 – there was a 2003 study done in the journal AIDS by Dr. Maria Xiridou about this. Study found that average length of relationship of gay males is 1.5 years. Additionally, the people in these relationships averaged 8 other “relationships” per year. Compare this to the US average of 67% of heterosexual relationships last more than 10 years.
The gay women seem to be better in this regard but they have their own issues (see statistics on spousal violence).
Matan1 – I don’t have numbers offhand but infidelity is extremely high for them (94.5% in gay males according to studies). I can’t imagine that having a good impact on staying together.
I’m not sure if there have been any studies about this. Would have to research that.
@matan1 – There are no major studies of this because it has not been common for so long so its hard to say. However, if you assume that a stable household with two parents is a good thing (which is pretty universally accepted) then having parents who are most likely not going to stay together would be bad in its own right.
@zahavasdad – Its true that anyone can be unfaithful but the numbers are staggering when it comes to gay couples. Just a couple numbers:
1 – Among homosexual males in their current relationships 4.5% reported fidelity (that is 4.5% as in 95.5% were not)
2 – A 1997 study found that between 10.2-15.7 percent had more than 1,000 different “relationships” (trying to find the right language for this forum) That means different people.
3 – Another study from Bell and Weinberg found that 28% had more than 1000 different “relationships” and 43% had more than 500.
These are crazy numbers and there are more and more like it. The out of control nature of that culture is unbelievable.
Sly fox = Europe. Ignore the Holocaust and feel the pain of the woodsman (Arab Nations)
Eagle = USA
Simcha613 – That is definitely true. Correlation is far from causation. And the argument is exactly what is said by these groups. If they were more accepted then these things would not happen. To be honest, there could be some merit to that. However, some of the health issues are not related to marriage and acceptance. Even in places like San Francisco where it is almost an honor to be gay the rates of many diseases are still way higher and I’m pretty sure the depression and the like are the same. (no study has shown it to be different there).
One more things, the gay lifestyle has been shown to be especially out of control in many ways such as: drugs, pedophilia, and staggering number of people who they have been with (trying to keep it G-rated). Way way way more than heterosexual people. I find it very hard to believe that these things would change if they could marry legally. (in California it has been legal for some time now).
I should rephrase that – I feel bad for the children growing up now who are fed the lines about being yourself, expressing yourself, etc… and really thinking that it will make them happy. They don’t know any better and are being led to a life devoid of happiness.
The older people pushing this have noone to blame but themselves for their troubles.
There was a pretty big study of transgender people done with actually staggering results. Some interesting numbers:
41% attempted suicide (yes 41%)
15% made <10,000 a year (national average is 4%)
>4 times the national average for HIV infection rate
double the likelihood of being homeless
Higher rates of incarceration
This is also seen in studies of the LGB community.
Significantly higher depression rates, less likely to have health insurance, much more likely to be below poverty line.
To be honest, I actually feel bad for these people. Now with everyone promoting this type of marriage more people will be encouraged to live this life. It is not a life of happiness.
@simcha613 – That is not entirely true. It is not purely a moral issue. It can be argued that it is no different than the government commanding people to wear a seatbelt or not do drugs. Why should they be concerned with what I do? The answer that is given is that it will be a drag on the rest of society if you crash have higher hospital bills, etc. The same argument can be made for these couples. The rates of many diseases are significantly higher than in other people. LGBT have way higher rates of depression and suicide. Much higher likelihood of being homeless. These can be a major drag on society. (higher medical costs and the like).
Basically, its a much easier argument than forcing you to put on a seat belt.
The four justices who disagreed with the ruling did not do it on moral grounds. It was based on the fact that they thought the supreme court had no business pushing through something that should be decided by the people and the states. To quote Roberts: the dissent is about “whether, in our democratic republic, that decision should rest with the people acting through their elected representatives, or with five lawyers who happen to hold commissions authorizing them to resolve legal disputes according to law.”
Or as Scalia wrote: “States are free to adopt whatever laws they like, even those that offend the esteemed Justices’ ‘reasoned judgment'”.
They view this as a gross overreach of power by the supreme court and fear that once you limit the constitution’s power you can slip very quickly into what this country was founded to protect against – abuse of power by the leaders.
@coffee addict – In short: Yes.
Those will be next.
What if you set something up where he could pay you back slowly? Maybe 150-200 a month or so. He might be able to do that and it might work for both of you.
@RebYidd23 – Yes. That would definitely be a better term.
@rew – No offense taken at all. I guess you could say I am a little bit of an amateur historian. Just something I do on the side. Not a super expert by any means.
These types of things you never learn in school. In history class they just concentrate on the major events like wars, disease, different kings, etc. They don’t focus on the daily life of these civilizations. If you look more in depth though you will see that this is true.
@rew – You are correct about the Indians but that has become the modern term so I just used it.
Your comment with PETA is true. They would definitely think it is barbaric. However, if you look at history it is comical to the point of being absurd for a non-believer to call anything in the Torah barbaric or immoral. In the pre-Torah world there was not a large value placed on human life let alone animals. The whole concept that animals should not be mistreated comes from the Torah.
As an example in the colesseum (and I keep going back to it because this was the most advanced and orderly civilization of its time) the opening act before people fought to the death was exotic animals brought in to the arena to tear each other apart. That is what the world was like pre-Torah.
As to your point from Yirmiyahu – I am not saying that people who have been exposed to Torah cannot do things that are bad. The main point I am trying to bring out is that basically all of our modern sense of morals (value of life and such) comes from the Torah. So once G-d goes, civilization can take a sharp turn downhill.
This is not my original idea. It has been pointed out by historians. To quote historian Paul Johnson: “Certainly, the world without the Jews would have been a radically different place. Humanity might have eventually stumbled upon all the Jewish insights. But we cannot be sure. All the great conceptual discoveries of the human intellect seem obvious and inescapable once they had been revealed, but it requires a special genius to formulate them for the first time. The Jews had this gift. To them we owe the idea of equality before the law, both divine and human; of the sanctity of life and the dignity of human person; of the individual conscience and so a personal redemption; of collective conscience and so of social responsibility; of peace as an abstract ideal and love as the foundation of justice, and many other items which constitute the basic moral furniture of the human mind. Without Jews it might have been a much emptier place.”
If you want additional reading about this check out ‘World Perfect’ by Ken Spiro at Aish Hatorah. Its a great book that sums up this idea perfectly.
@RebYidd23 what I mean by religion is Monotheism. A single force controlling the world. Basically what was introduced by the Torah to the world.
The ancient view of Gods were basically people with powers. Superheros. The Gods didnt dictate morality they were just a means to get what you wanted so you had to placate them. Give sacrifices to various deities and get what you are asking for. The ancient deities themselves were also after power and lust. They were the same as humans just with superpowers.
@atypical teen – I didn’t say that any civilization without the Torah as a guideline would be this way. I said any civilization that has not been exposed to the Torah. Big difference. Many civilizations have rules now that closely mirror ideas that were gotten from the Torah.
These rules can be set and can keep civilizations in line.
However, it is also true that once ppl do not remember what was behind these rules they can go pretty quickly.
@the wolf – Was there something incorrect in what I wrote? I think I was pretty accurate historically.
If you look at history this will bare itself out. I am still waiting for them to find a lost tribe in Africa or South America that doesnt practice things like human sacrifice, constant tribal warfare, etc. There has never been a peaceful tribe discovered somehow.
If you look at large portions of Africa where they have not been exposed to Torah (even in more developed areas) you will find constant tribal warfare, little value of human life, and immorality to the extremes.
It is not just a question of immorality it is a question of cruel and barbaric thinking.
If you want more reading look at the ancient druid rituals of human sacrifice, or read about the Greek views of pederasty. Or the far eastern practices for the palace workers (which didnt stop until 1912).
As a side note, I do not think of myself as confined to my “daled amos”. I work in a normal job with a big company. This is just the truth that most people really are unaware of.
Also, if you want to see where atheism ultimately takes you look at the work of the ‘ethicist’ Peter Singer. His most famous position is basically that a person should have a period (anywhere from a week to a month or more) after the baby is born to decide if they want to keep it. If not, the baby is gotten rid of (in a “humane and pain-free” way of course).
If you look closely at history, you will see what was before G-d (the Torah) was introduced. Look at the pagan societies of Rome and Greece and you will be appalled at the ‘morals’ they display. (Think Colosseum – go watch people fight to the death, insatiable bloodlust – constant brutal warfare, rampant infanticide, and if you are really interested read about their out of control activity in terms of Arayos).
To quote Aristotle “There must be a law that no imperfect or maimed child shall be brought up. And to avoid an excess in population some children must be exposed.”(ie killed)
Or Seneca who advocated maiming abandoned children so that people could laugh at them collecting in the street. (all with a justification – they would have been dead otherwise so we are making them useful).
Lest you think this is only in ancient times just look at the barbaric Indians in the Americas. The Aztecs – a highly advanced civilization that built amazing works and had advanced mathematics, calendars, science, etc. – had the most brutally efficient system for human sacrifice. They believed that the world would end if the blood stopped. So, they would go to war specifically to capture people to have a steady stream of sacrifices. (where they ripped their heart out). They were still doing this when the white poeple came over (only a couple hundred years ago).
Truth is you don’t have to look that far back to see where atheism gets you. Hitler, Stalin, Mao Zedong – this is what a state without religion looks like. Complete lack of regard for human life.
There is a general rule – Any civilization that has not been exposed to Torah you will find is a cruel, barbaric, immoral civilization.
If you want something really intense you can try ???? ??? by Rav Alexander Moshe Lapidus. The first section is about as powerful as it gets. Almost to the point of being careful with it. It can be too much for many people.
@Little Froggie
The logic for the side is that you are able to see it when it is on the shelf next to different sefarim. Imagine trying to find a sefer on the bookshelf with no names on the side.
Now, you do have a question as to why they don’t ALSO put it on the front.
Definitely the CT. I got a few a little while back when they were on sale and I have been very impressed by the quality. They come out of the wash looking brand new and are very comfortable.
Joseph
Your assumptions are incorrect. Statistically for a 50/50 event there is a huge difference in likelihood of it being 50/50 vs 80/20. The more times you “flip” the greater difference in likelihood. Given a large enough sample size the likelihood of even 52/48 can be infinitesimal kal v’chomer 80/20.
As a more visual example take 6 children. Since there are 2 possibilites per child (m/f), there are 2^6 = 64 possible combinations for all these children. (ie. MMMMMM, MMMMMF, FMMMMM, MMFFMF, etc..) So, because there is only 1 possible way for all to be male, the odds of 100% male is 1/64. Same with all female. The would make odds of 100% either way is only (1+1)/64 = 1/32.
However, to have 5 male and 1 female there are 6 different combination of that. MMMMMF, MMMMFM, MMMFMM, MMFMMM, MFMMMM, FMMMMM. That means there is a 6/64 chance that there will be 5 male and same for female. So, odds of there being 5 of either (which would be 83%) is 12/64 or 3/16 (approx 19%). This is more much more likely than 100% but not so likely.
4 males has 15 combinations MMMMFF, MMMFMF, MMFMMF, MFMMMF, FMMMMF, MMMFFM, MMFMFM, MFMMFM, FMMMFM, MMFFMM, MFMFMM, FMMFMM, MFFMMM, FMFMMM, FFMMMM. 4 females the same. That would be 30/64. So, 50/50 has 64-30-12-2 = 20/64 chance of happening.
To summarize likelihoods:
6M = 1/64
5M1F = 6/64
4M2F = 15/64
3M3F = 20/64
2M4F = 15/64
1M5F = 6/64
6F = 1/64
In other words, the closer you get to the 50% mark the more likelihood of it.
A cute ursidae’s father falls asleep.
Sam2 – I was assuming his was a play on the famous one: a man, a plan, a canal, Panama.
A canine that causes a disturbance at a Far Eastern tower.
I give up my brain is not working today can you give me a hint ? or just give me the answer
something ‘pagoda’ -29
Could be: A dog a panic in a pagoda.
Here’s another one:
How the first man introduced himself to Chava. (assuming he spoke English and was very proper).
Hi. I work as an actuary for a life insurance company.
First off, I think it is a great job for someone who likes math and also wants a family life/learning time. My work hours are literally 9 to 5. Very rarely do I ever have to stay late or work extra hours (maybe 5-10 days a year, and even those days I am only staying until the latest 7). I do not have my FSA yet and am still studying for exams. It is true that the exams take up time outside of work however, I have a set seder at night for about 1.5 hours and never had to miss that because of studying. If you are serious about your learning you can definitely keep a seder and study.
Additionally, you are not always studying (if you do your exams quickly you can finish within 5 years).
In terms of the learning for a few years before work, I had a similar situation to the earlier poster. I learned after high school for 7 years and then went to Touro, took a couple exams, and got a job.
The actual job is enjoyable and it does require actual thinking/problem solving. I have never worked in consulting so don’t know much about it, but life definitely has its mental stimulation.
I would definitely recommend looking into the actuary profession as I think it is a great way to have a work/life/religious balance.
SIDI – Actually statistically speaking this is one of the biggest misconceptions ever. If you gave every monkey on the planet a typewriter, and they typed continuously for a billion years the likelihood of them typing a single Shakespeare sentence is minuscule. Take ‘To be, or not to be, that is the question’. There are 41 different characters that need to be printed in order (including spaces and commas). For simplicity’s sake assume 28 different characters possible for each space (26 letters, space, comma). That means there are 28^41 = 215515884439354503549955972322784526648224392221491019644928 different combinations. All are wrong except for 1. So, odds of being wrong is ((28^41) – 1)/(28^41) or approximately 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999536. Even given 500 million monkeys typing a new sentence every 5 seconds for a billion years, the odds would be that .999 etc.. number ^ (5,000,000 * 12 * 60 * 24 * 365 * 1,000,000,000) or .999 etc. ^ (31536000000000000000000). The actual odds would be 1-0.99999999999999999999999999999999999985367296 or 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000014632704. In other words not very likely.
Sorry for the nerd rant its just something that as a (slightly nerdy) mathematics person always bothered me. 🙂