You flunk political math. On seeing Trump winning, anti-Trump supporters of third party candidate (e.g Greens, Cornel West) may switch to Biden, while on seeing Biden winning, anti-Biden supporters of third parties (at this point, limited to supporters of RFK Jr), may switch to Trump. And if a third party candidate (at this point, most likely RFK Jr.) comes close enough to get into second place, the supporters of the major party relegated to third place in a given state may decide to support him to block the party that is leading (e.g. if Biden is in first in a given state, and Kennedy is second, Trump supporters may “strategically” switch to Kennedy to block Biden).

The polling questions assume a more traditional, duller election – which 2024 isn’t. Both major parties are undergoing traumatic changes (Democrats becoming WOKE, Republicans becoming MAGA, and the standards of 20 years ago make you a DINO or RINO). This is the wildest election since 1860, which was won by a “third party” (at the time) with under 40% of the popular vote (and the losers were so annoyed they called out their militia and started a civil war).

Also both major parties are very fluid on ideology. Will Trump’s “American First” mean dumping American allies and friends such as NATO and Israel, not to mention expelling Hispanics and endorsing White Supremacy as the Democrats claim he will? Will Biden endorse the WOKE agenda including criminal law protection of “Diversity Equity and Inclusions” including “Trans Rights” and official toleration of violent anti-Semitism, or will the Democrats “put their WOKE faction in its place” and dare them to make Trump president.