A new peer-reviewed study is challenging one of the cornerstones of modern climate science, claiming there is no evidence that global sea levels are rising at the rates long predicted — or that climate change has caused any measurable acceleration.

The research, published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, analyzed long-term tide-gauge data from 200 locations worldwide and concluded that average sea level rise in 2020 amounted to just 1.5 millimeters per year — roughly six inches per century. That is less than half the 3 to 4 millimeters per year figure frequently cited by the United Nations and climate scientists.

The study’s authors — Dutch hydraulic engineer Hessel Voortman and independent researcher Rob de Vos — said their findings undercut decades of dire projections.

“This is significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm/year often reported in scientific literature and the media,” Voortman told journalist Michael Shellenberger. He added that he was “shocked” no researcher had previously compared long-term projections against local observational data.

The research, funded by neither governments nor industry, represents a sharp break from the mainstream view that sea levels have accelerated dramatically since the early 1990s with the advent of satellite imagery.

According to Voortman, much of the supposed acceleration reflects natural variability rather than carbon-driven climate change. He pointed out that 1993 coincided with a “trough” in sea levels while 2020 represented a “peak,” exaggerating the appearance of rapid rise.

“For the vast majority of the stations, the differences between the two curves were not significant,” Voortman said. Of the few sites showing higher rates of rise, he noted most were located near others showing negligible change, suggesting that local factors — such as earthquakes, heavy construction, or land rebound from past ice ages — were more likely culprits than a global climate phenomenon.

The study explicitly contends that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has “significantly overestimated” sea level rise, with projections running well ahead of what tide-gauge data shows. That discrepancy, Voortman argues, has consequences for public policy, coastal planning, and public trust.

“When designing coastal infrastructure, engineers have long accounted for sea level rise,” Voortman said. “Both measurements and projections are important sources of information. Understanding the differences between them is crucial for practical applications.”

Voortman, who has worked for three decades on global flood-protection and coastal projects, rejected any suggestion that he is “denying” climate change. Instead, he urged a recalibration of the debate to focus on measured realities.

“It is important to stress that there are good reasons to have models,” he said. “If we design something in the coastal zone, we try to achieve a technical lifetime of 50 to 100 years, and that means we need to look into the future. But we must be realistic about what the data shows.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)