A new Walla News poll was released on Wednesday 5 Shevat 5773, conducted by the TNS Institute for Walla.

While the Likud/Beitenu list is a far cry from the 40 seats or more they hoped to receive, the party is stable and it has not lost a seat or two as was the case in earlier polls. Labor remains stable and Bayit HaYehudi is back up to 15 seats after dropping to 13 in the January 6, 2013 poll.

The big news is The Movement dropping five seats, less than an encouraging prediction for those who believe she will replace Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

1. Likud/Beitenu – 34 (34 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

2. Labor 18 (18 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

3. Bayit HaYehudi 15 (13 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

4. Yesh Atid 11 (11 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

5. Shas 10 (11 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

6. The Movement 6 (11 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

7. Yahadut Hatorah 6 (6 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

8. Meretz 5 (4 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

9. Ra’am-Ta’al 4 (4 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

10. Hadash 3 (4 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

11. Kadima 3 (0 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

12. Am Shalem 2 (2 in the January 6, 2013 poll)

Right-wing/chareidi bloc with 65 seats and the left-wing/centrist bloc have 45. That makes 110 seats, with the remainder going to the Arab parties.

The poll was taken with 500 respondents representing a cross section of adults over 18, including the senior citizen, new immigrant and Arab sectors. The margin of error is +/- 2 seats.

How reliable are the polls?

Let’s take a look at the TNS poll conducted a week before the last general elections in 2009.

1. Kadima 23 (actually received 28 seats)

2. Likud 27 (actually received 27 seats)

3. Labor 17 (actually received 13 seats)

4. Yisrael Beitenu 17 (actually received 15 seats)

5. Shas 10 (actually received 11 seats)

6. Meretz 6 (actually received 3 seats)

7. Yahadut Hatorah 5 (actually received 5 seats)

8. Ichud HaLeumi 4 (actually received 4 seats)

9. Hadash 4 (actually received 4 seats)

10. Ra’am – Ta’al 4 (actually received 4 seats)

11. Bayit HaYehudi 3 (actually received 3 seats)

12. Balad 0 (actually received 3 seats)

The poll predicted 66 seats for the right-wing/chareidim and it actuality, there was 65.

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)